DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Mixed Deviations

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 16:00 GMT (11:00 EST) the weekly Department of Energy's Inventory figures were released.. This is normally reported weekly on Wednesdays at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) but because Monday was a holiday in the USA because of Presidents day it get moved to Thursday a half hour later because the EIA Natural Gas is normally reported at 10:30. Normally when there is so much energy supply data coming out within 30 minutes it is more risky than usual. Anyway today did not have very big deviations and they were mixed with Crude and Distillates reporting a build but a draw in Gasoline.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1350k Average: +760k Range: -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +1633k Prior: -171k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -785k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -208k Prior: -2867k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +250k Average: +35k Range: -1500k to +1900k
Actual: -649k Prior: +400k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.23% Range: -1.00% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.5% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -315k Prior: +1990k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14675 Prior: +14599

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4447.7 Prior: +4934.6

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +9244.1 Prior: +8723.4 No Revision

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print leads to drop in Nattie but stock don't follow

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change number was released from the EIA.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -170 Average: -164 Range: -185 to -125
Actual: -166 Prior: -127 No Revisions

German IFO - Rumor of higher number leads to rally, prints higher

This morning of February 23rd at 9:00 GMT (4:00 EST) the IFO figures were released from Germany. There was a rumor of a better number during the early European open and this lead the Euro to gain during the morning leading into the release. There were Middle-Eastern names seen buying the Euro but also some barrier protection at 1.3300 the round figure. The number was indeed higher, but not really by that much, this one is good to trade on a deviation of about +/- 1.2 and we didn't get that much higher than the median analsyst estimates. So this could have been a buy-the-rumour/sell-the-news setup, but actually price managed to continue on up even after the release, despite all the movement before the news. Alot of bidders and once the barrier option broke then further upside was attaing. However 1.3350 the mid-handle was frontrun, barrier protection again perhaps?, or just market-makers protecting the next hedging level....interesting anyhow. Anyhow we had resistance marked from 1.3340-50 so rode it down to 1.3270 as New York opened.

Here is the data:

German IFO - Business Climate
Estimates- Median: +108.8 Average: +109.0 Range: +108.0 to +111.0
Actual: +109.6 Prior: +108.3 No Revision

German IFO - Current Assessment
Estimates- Median: +116.5 Average: +116.5 Range: +115.0 to +118.0
Actual: +117.5 Prior: +116.3 No Revision

German IFO - Expectations
Estimates- Median: +102.0 Average: +102.0 Range: +100.4 to +104.5
Actual: +102.3 Prior: +100.9 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of EURUSD:

and here is the 1 minute chart of EURJPY

API Crude Oil Inventories - Small Build over prior week

This evening of February 22nd 2012 at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) the weekly API energy supply inventory numbers were released. This normally comes out on a Tuesday night, but as it was a holiday in the USA on Monday they were released on Wednesday night instead.

Here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +3551k Prior: +2902k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +630k Prior: -2156k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +314k Prior: +1812k

API Cushing Crudde OK Inventory
Actual: -344k Prior +1983k

UK BOE Meeting Minutes & Vote Count - more dovish than expect big move lower

Today February 22nd 2012 at 9:30 the BOE meeting minutes from their last Interest Rate Announcement on February 9th 2012. They also gave their decision on the Asset Purchase Facility or APF and it was raised by 50 Billion to 325 Billion. There were about 15 of the 50 analyst estimates calling for a 75 billion hike in the APF to 350 billion, while 35 out of 50 called for just 50 billion extra. In the end the BOE just did the 50 billion.

Today there was expectation that Posen, the ultradove on the MPC would vote for the full 75 billion, but that there would be 1 member who voted for no additional QE. As it turned out there were 2 members who voted for hiking APF by 75 billion, as MPC member Miles joined Posen in the dovish camp, and all the other remaining members voted for the 50 billion. Thus there were no members who voted for no additional stimulus. So this was more dovish than expected and the British Pound Forex pairs all fell in Pound weakness.

Here are the charts. First the 30 second GBPUSD pair:

next the GBPJPY pair 30 second chart...the yen has been weak but this still fell:

and finally the GBPCHF pair 30 second chart:

UK Retail Sales - Much Higher good spike higher into resistance

This morning of February 17th at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the monthly Retail Sales figures were released from the UK. They were much higher than expected by a good amount and there was a nice rally.

Here is the data:


UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.3% Average: -0.4% Range: -0.9% to 0.0%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates- Median: -0.1% Average: 0.0% Range: -0.6% to +0.6%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +1.7% Revised: +1.4%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.3% Average: -0.3% Range: -0.9% to +1.1%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: 0.0% to +1.9%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +2.6% Revised: +2.5%

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print good news trade

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -120 Average: -119 Range: -130 to -110
Actual: -127 Prior: -78 No Revision

Swedish Interest Rates - Riksbank cuts 25 bps as expected

This morning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 EST) the Swedish Riksbank released their Interest Rate decision. This came along with CPI Inflation figures. Out of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the announcement, 5 expected the Riksbank to hold rates steady at 1.75% while the other 13 expect the bank to cut. They did as the majority expected and CPI also came out lower which means the Riksbank still has room to cut more...The CPI came out first and there was a small delay of 5 or 10 seconds before the Rate Announcement then came thru the wires.

Here is the Data:

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate
Estimates- Median: 1.5% Average: 1.57% Range: 1.50% to 1.75%
Actual: 1.50% Prior: 1.75% no revision
5 out of 18 for hold, 13 for cut

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.5% Range: -0.7% to -0.4%
Actual: -0.9% Prior: +0.2% no revision

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +2.3% Average: +2.2% Range: +2.1% to +2.4%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.3% no revision

Sweden SW CPI - CPIF (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.5% Range: -0.6% to -0.3%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: 0.0% no revision

Sweden SW CPI - CPIF (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +1.1% Average: +1.0% Range: +0.4% to +1.3%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.5% no revision

Sweden CPI Level
Estimates- Median: 312.97 Average: 313.05 Range: 312.75 to 313.50
Actual: 311.85 Prior: 314.75 no revision

Here is a 5 second chart of the EURSEK:

Here is the 30 second EURSEK chart which shows the move continued:

Australian Employment - All good, nice spike, no follow thru in risk-off market

Last night at 00:30 GMT on February 16th 2012 (19:30 EST Feb 15th) the Employment figures were released out of Australia. Recently the Full time and Part time components have come with expectations. There have been times when the deviation on Net Employment Change has not come from Full-Time jobs which has actually gone the other way. This time all the figures lined up. There was a good strong spike, and then the start of a retracement style afterspike, however with all the risk aversion due to the further delays in coordinating the next Greek bailout, the Australian Dollar was unable to follow thru with a continued move higher.

Here is the data:

Australia Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +10.0k Average: +12.4k Range: -10.0k to +36.0k
Actual: +46.3k Prior: -29.3k Revised: -35.6k

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.3% Average: +5.3% Range: +5.2% to +5.5%
Actual: +5.1% Prior: +5.2% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: 0.0k Average: 0.0k Range: -10.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +12.3k Prior: +24.5k Revised: +24.0k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +7.5k Average: +5.8k Range: -20.0k to +20.0k
Actual: +34.0k Prior: -53.7k Revised: -59.6k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions
Actual: 383M Prior: 737M No Revision

First the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair:

Also the 1 minute chart of the AUDJPY, another good pair to trade on Australian economic news:

Also the EURAUD 5 minute chart which show that even this pair did retrace thru the asian session.

One pair which was able to hold its gains, but not make any more significant highs was the AUDNZD, here is the 5 minute chart:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Deviations agree across the complex

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision
This Wednesday afternoon at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly Energy Inventory numbers were released from the DOE. This time all off the 3 main items: Crude, Gasoline and Distillates were all lower - a draw. This normal is bullish but the deviations from the median expectation was not very big. Crude just whipsawed...it was a risk off day as more delays in Greece threatened the next Greek bailout and PSI bond haircut deal. This print gave a short break from the risk off flows which then came back around 13:00 EST / 18:00 GMT

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision


Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front-month Crude Oil Future:

Also included are some Energy stocks: Devon DVN Cabot COB Chesapeak CHK Exxon XOM and BP
as the 1 minute chart shows some followed the deviation and other did not...a few frontrun the data by a couple of minutes:

UK Claimant Count Change - Small Deviation

This Wednesday morning of February 15th 2012 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Jobless Figures and Unemployment Rate were released from the UK. This figure has been tough to trade as the moves are often quite quick and can then reverse fast. Often there is a leak or rumor and the move starts before the release, only for profit taking on the release to occur which then reverses the direction of the initial spike after the release. The EURUSD has started selling off its 1.3320 highs from last week as apparently the deal on the next Greek bailout was done, but now there are more delays which seem more serious. These delays have been going on for weeks, and many are starting to say that Greece should just be allowed to default. So far most of the selling has been going on during the US session with small retracements occuring during the European morning.
Anyway that gives some backdrop to when the news was released. The BOE inflation report was due 1 hour after this data came out.

Here is the data:

UK Claimant Count Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.0% Average: +5.0% Range: +5.0% to +5.1%
Actual: +5.0% Prior: +5.0% No Revision

UK Jobless Claims Change
Estimates- Median: +3.0k Average: +3.1k Range: -5.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +6.9k Prior: +1.2k Revised: +1.9k

UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.8% Range: +1.7% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% Revised: +2.0%

UK Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.6% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% No Revision

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)
Estimates- Median: +8.4% Average: +8.4% Range: +8.4% to +8.5%
Actual: +8.4% Prior: +8.4% No Revision

As the deviation was small on the main Change figure and flat on the Rate figure the British pound mostly just chopped around....here is the 1 minute chart of the GBPUSD forex pair. The release was at 9:30 GMT as the chart is in GMT time...at 10:30 is when BOE's King started the BOE Inflation Report and there was press conference and Q&A that went on for about 1 hour:

Here is the 1 minute chart of GBPJPy from the same time

New Zealand Retail Sales - Good Print after pre-news move leads to small spike but good trend thru asian session

This evening of February 14th 2012 at 16:45 EST (21:45 GMT) the quarterly retail sales figures were released from New Zealand. They were better and after another day where some risk-off price action appeared during the New York session as the Session ended there was a pretty decent bounce.
The bounce lead the New Zealand dollar higher into the release, so when the data was printed the spike was pretty muted. However with time the trend did continue up and Kiwi appreciated nicely. Just one of those news reports where the spike is not the way to go but longer term its still good.

Chinese Imports Much Lower - Australian Dollar Sells off

Overnight during the Asian Session on Febrary 9th 2012 at 22:04 EST(February 10th 2012 at 3:04 GMT) the Trade Balance, Imports and Exports data was released from China. It generally had lower estimates but the Import data came out much lower than expectations. As Australia sells alot of commodities to China the Australian Dollar sold off.

Here is the data:

China Exports YoY%
Estimates- Median: -1.4% Average: -0.2% Range: -10.0% to +8.4%
Actual: -0.5% Prior: +13.4% No Revision

China Imports YoY%
Estimates- Median: -3.6% Average: -2.4% Range: -14.0% to +11.0%
Actual: -15.3% Prior: +11.8% No Revision

China Trade Balance (USD)
Estimates- Median: $10.40B Average: $9.77B Range: -$0.43B to +$21.30B
Actual: +27.28B Prior: +$16.52B No Revision

Here is the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair. The move lower actually started about 23:00 GMT or 18:00 EST just ahead of the Tokyo open, so there may have been some anticipation of this. After the data was released the pair sold off another 60-70 pips:

Here is a 1 hour chart of the EURAUD trade. Going short this pair is the Carry Trade of choice at the moment, because of problems in Europe and still better interest rates in Australia of 4.25%. Europe is just 1% but even though there is lower interest rates elsewhere this gives extra appreciation due to the European Soverign Debt Crisis.

Although this retacement looks quite good if you look at the Daily Chart you see that this is only a shallow retracement relative to the longer term:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print but initially lower but reverses

This Thursday afternoon, February 9th 2012 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Natural Gas Storage Change figure was released from the EIA. Have only been watching this release lately as very high storage levels have been reported this winter which has brought the price of Natural Gas very low. A few weeks ago Chesapeake tried to help this by announcing plans to cut their Natural Gas production. So the market has consolidated a bit for now.

Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -86 Average: -86 Range: -99 to -75
Actual: -78 Prior: -132 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future. From a Spreadbet chart, so no decimal place:

Also included are some Energy Stocks...what is interesting is how these stocks sold off before the annnouncement. Had a slight lower tick on the release and then managed to rally several minutes later, much like the Natural Gas Future did:

Chesapeake (CHK) is always one to watch for Gas:

Cabot (COB) also is good:

Not sure about Devon's (DVN) involvement with Gas, but a smaller energy company:

Finally 2 big companies Exxon (XOM) and BP which trades in London:

ECB Rate Announcement and Press Conference - No big moves

This Thursday afternoon on February 9th 2012 the Interest Rates Announcment was made by the ECB. They were not expected to raise rates this time and did not. The ECB's mandate is price stability and although lowering rates might help the liquidity problems caused by the Debt Crisis, the LTRO in December 2011 has helped that. There is another LTRO in February. The only thing that could have surprised the market is if Mario Draghi had announced a longer term LTRO.

In the midst of all this the negotiations in Greece continue, with the PSI (Private Sector Involvement) negotiations on a bond haircut as well as Greece agreeing to more austerity to receive the next tranche of AID from the Troika. The Rates came out at 12:45 GMT (7:45 EST) and Draghi began his press conference at 13:30 GMT (8:30 EST). About 15 minutes before it started there was an headline that some Greek officials had said a deal was done. Later in the day some other Dutch and Germans officials said this was not the case. Anyhow the EURUSD shot up. It then just whipped around in its range as he spoke. There was nothing particularly market moving in what he said, which basically was to wait for the the EuroZone meeting of politicians. He didn't want to say anything about any losses the ECB might take on its Greek bond holdings.

Here is a summary of some of his comments:

Draghi: Stabilization of economic activity at low level

-Activity subdued
-Inflation to fall below 2% after staying above for several months
-Downside risks remain
-Will continue to support financial sector via LTRO
-LTRO has eased collateral availability
-Low interest rates and LTRO lending support to economy
-Stresses in financial markets have diminished

Draghi: No comment on Greek bonds/EFSF
-Says Greek PM tells him Greek deal reached

Draghi: New collateral rules more risky
-Will have to be managed; over collateralized

Draghi would not answer questions on Greek bonds...losses, surrendering profits etc.

Draghi: Survey and hard data point to economic stabilization at low levels
-When asked on removal of word “substantial” to downside risks
-Experts say demand for second LTRO should be around the same as the first (EUR 490 bln)
-Haircuts of about 2/3rds on new collateral
-ECB to avoid “legal tricks”: Will not share Greek losses, Talk unfounded
-Will not give money to Greek program, would violate monetary financing
-A well-functioning financial system does not need non-standard measures, they are temporary in
nature
-Euro area “as a whole” in better budget shape than US or Japan

Draghi: ECB not a party to PSI but hear agreement near
-Will discuss in Eurogroup
-Has nothing to say on Greek bonds other than will not violate ECB Treaty
-Selling Greek bonds to EFSF would be monetary financing if ECB books a loss

Drgahi: Fiscal Compact a major event
-Governments give up partial sovereignty on budgets
-A sign of commitment to the euro; makes euro a strong reality
-A first step toward fiscal union
-In union, each country would be responsible and strong
-A Plan B on Greece means defeat; no comment on ECB holding of Greek debt

No trade off between interest rate changes, LTRO: Draghi
-Two different things, address two different problems
-On Japanese interventions, should be done in mulch-lateral framework, not unilateral
-Irish government should be praised for reform progress
-“Greece is unique in everything”
-No stigma on use of LTRO facilities
-If ECB give money to EFSF, that is monetary financing; if it gives part of its profit to governments (EFSF) that is not monetary financing (got it? )

anyway lots of talk, nothing exciting...loads of banker talk, nothing for the traders.

Here is the 1 minute chart during the talking:

UK BOE Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target - BOE adds 50 Billion Quantitative Easing

This Thursday February 9th at 12:00 noon GMT (7:00 EST) the BOE announced their monthly decisions on Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Facility (APF). All Analysts of course predicted that the Bank of England (BOE) would stay on hold and leave interest rates where they are at 0.5%. However there was an interesting split between analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on the amount of extra QE they would add to the APF. Out of 50 analysts, 15 expected the BOE to add an additional 75 Billion to the APF to bring the total to 350 billion, 34 expected the BOE to only add 50 billion for a total of 325 billion, and 1 analysts expected them not to add anything. The estimates had come down since CPI appears to be confirming that inflation is finally turning around.

Last time the BOE raised the APF was on October 6th 2011 and the GBPUSD British Pound Sterling versus US Dollar Forex Pair dropped about 2 and a quarter cents from 1.5485 to 1.5270. However several hours after hovering and consolidating near those new lows, the pair lifted up and began an amazing rally which lasted until October 27th and brought the pair back up to 1.6150. The EURUSD, AUDUSD and other pairs bottomed out on October 4th and started their way back up. This was all in the midst of lots of negative sentiment..

Here is the 10 second chart of GBPUSD on the reaction. The BOE only hike 50 Billion instead of 75 Billion, so after a tiny dip the pair rallied:

There was always the risk that they could do the full 75 Billion, this would have been more bearish, as it was on October 6th 2011. As we can see from this chart the 1 minute chart of the 2.5 hours between the Trade Balance & Industrial Production at 9:30 GMT to the Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target at 12:00. Adding any QE is bearish for a Currency and the initial reaction should be down, but longer term the QE can stimulate the economy and help support GDP which is bullish. Of course for this release, it was pretty much priced in that the BOE would do some QE.

This is the 10 second chart of GBPCHF & EURGBP

and the 30 second chart of the GBPCHF to show more of the move:

and the 30 second chart of the GBPJPY and EURGBP:

It was a choppy day, up and down, up and down...little resolution one way or the other...

UK Industrial Production & Trade Balance - Better Data leads to brief rally

This Thrusday morning, February 9th 2012 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production figures were released from the UK. This release also coincided with the release of the Trade Balance figures. Most of the data was good with the exception of one of the Year-on-Year figures. However the UK Interest rates were due about 2 and a half hours after this release so many were cautious as the BOE was expected to raise the APF. More in that in the next post.

Here is the data:


UK Industrial Production (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.3% to +0.4%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: -0.6% Revised: -0.5%

UK Industrial Production (YoY)
Estimates- Median: -3.1% Average: -3.1% Range: -3.6% to -2.8%
Actual: -3.3% Prior: -3.1% Revised: -3.6%

UK Manufacturing Production (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.8% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.0% Prior: -0.2% Revised: -0.1%

UK Mnaufacturing Production (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +0.3% Average: +0.3% Range: -0.7% to +0.6%
Actual: +0.8% Prior: -0.6% Revised: -1.0%

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn
Estimates- Median: -£8600 Average: -£8606 Range: -£9000 to -£8000
Actual: -£7111 Prior: -£8644 Revised: -£8908

UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn
Estimates- Median: -£5000 Average: -£5047 Range: -£5300 to -£4900
Actual: -£3748 Prior: -£5021 Revised: -£5037

UK Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln)
Estimates- Median: -£2700 Average: -£3172 Range: -£9230 to -£2000
Actual: -£1109 Prior: -£2566 Revised: -£2830

Here is the 10 second chart of the GBPUSD:

Also included are the 30 second charts of GBPJPY, GBPCHF & EURGBP

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Draw on Crude, Build on Rest

This afternoon of Wednesday February 8th 2012, the DOE inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline were released. Last week there was a great news trading profit when the figures on all 3 lined up in agreement. This week there was conflicts. Crude came out with a bullish draw, or lower deviation, but Distillates and Gasoline deviated higher for a Build, which is normally bearish.

Here is the data:
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Median: +2500k Average: +2560k Range: +2000k to +4200k
Actual: +304k Prior: +4175k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Median: -875k Average: -700k Range: -2000k to +800k
Actual: +1174k Prior: -135k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Median: +875k Average: +290k Range: -2000k to +1700k
Actual: +1629k Prior: +3017k No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +367k Prior: +1476k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14133 Prior: +14004

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4432.3 Prior: +4732.3

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8664.6 Prior: +8593.0

Crude initially followed the bullish draw on its own deviation and blipped up a bit but was reversed by the Bearish Build in the Gasoline and Distillates. Here is a 1 minute chart of the Crude oil future from a spreadbet:

Also included are some 1 minute chart of Energy Stocks, just to show how they moved after the news.

Devon - DVN

Cabot - COB

Chesapeake - CHK

Exxon - XOM

and finally BP

API Crude Oil Inventories - decent draw on Crude and Distillate but build on Gasoline

Yesterday evening, February 7th 2012, at 21:30 GMT (16:30 EST) the Weekly Inventory Supply figures for Energy Items was released from the American Petroleum Institute or API. There was a decent draw, or lower deviation, on Crude compared to the previous week. Also a more modest draw in Distillate but actually a build on Gasoline. Recently it does appear that these Energy numbers are working better again with last week's DOE number working quite well, although in that case all 3 figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline deviated in the same direction. The past few weeks has seen more indecisive moves when the 3 do not agree. The API is released quite late in the day after most markets are closed so it does not get alot of attention. The Active Front-Month Crude Contract did move in the right direction indicated by the deviation in the data, but it was quite a small move. In the past moves of 20-40 ticks have been possible on this news trading this data.

Here is the Data:

API U.S Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -4533k Prior: +2067K

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +385k Prior: +1482K

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +386k Prior: +970K

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +4429k Prior: -222K

This is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract. Perhaps it was possible to get 20 ticks from this but depends on if there was any slippage. Normally it is safer to wait for the larger deviations to bring larger moves so if there is any slippage there is good probability of seeing a continuation of the move past the initial spike reaction to trading the news data release. The Red Arrow indicated when the data was released, however this news is not always released exactly on time so we can see on the chart that the price started to react the minute before.

Australia RBA Cash Target - Unexpectedly Hold Rates lead to rally in AUDUSD

Last night February 6th at 21:30 EST (02:30 GMT on February 7th) the RBA released their Interest Rate decision. Out of the 27 analyst estimates only 3 expected the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.25%. The other 24 expected them to cut 25 basis points to 4.00%. They surprised the market by not cutting interest rates and instead holding rates steady at 4.25%. The AUDUSD forex pair rallied over 120 pips on the news. Other Australian Dollar pairs: AUDJPY, EURAUD has similar gains.

The past 2 meetings the RBA has cut rates by 25 basis points each meeting. The analysts were roughly split in estimating they would do these cuts each time with about half predicting a cut and the other half predicting the RBA to hold. This time nearly all the analysts jumped on the band wagon and predicted a cut. However these predictions were quite backward looking as since the last FOMC meeting on January 25th 2012 and the NFP on this past friday, market sentiment has in general been alot better. An article appeared from Sydney Morning Herald just before Sunday night's Retail Sales report about the likelihood of a RBA rate cut diminishing, however no analysts modified their expectations over the next day before the RBA announcement.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD:

Here the 5 minute charts of AUDUSD and EURAUD. EURAUD dropped on the news but during the European Session some positive developments on situation in Greece turned the pair aroung. The AUDJPY got a further lift when the Japanese Yen started to weaken through out the day: