Wednesday, February 15, 2012

UK Claimant Count Change - Small Deviation

This Wednesday morning of February 15th 2012 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Jobless Figures and Unemployment Rate were released from the UK. This figure has been tough to trade as the moves are often quite quick and can then reverse fast. Often there is a leak or rumor and the move starts before the release, only for profit taking on the release to occur which then reverses the direction of the initial spike after the release. The EURUSD has started selling off its 1.3320 highs from last week as apparently the deal on the next Greek bailout was done, but now there are more delays which seem more serious. These delays have been going on for weeks, and many are starting to say that Greece should just be allowed to default. So far most of the selling has been going on during the US session with small retracements occuring during the European morning.
Anyway that gives some backdrop to when the news was released. The BOE inflation report was due 1 hour after this data came out.

Here is the data:

UK Claimant Count Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.0% Average: +5.0% Range: +5.0% to +5.1%
Actual: +5.0% Prior: +5.0% No Revision

UK Jobless Claims Change
Estimates- Median: +3.0k Average: +3.1k Range: -5.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +6.9k Prior: +1.2k Revised: +1.9k

UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.8% Range: +1.7% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% Revised: +2.0%

UK Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.6% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% No Revision

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)
Estimates- Median: +8.4% Average: +8.4% Range: +8.4% to +8.5%
Actual: +8.4% Prior: +8.4% No Revision

As the deviation was small on the main Change figure and flat on the Rate figure the British pound mostly just chopped around....here is the 1 minute chart of the GBPUSD forex pair. The release was at 9:30 GMT as the chart is in GMT time...at 10:30 is when BOE's King started the BOE Inflation Report and there was press conference and Q&A that went on for about 1 hour:

Here is the 1 minute chart of GBPJPy from the same time

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