Australian Retail Sales

I have not been so impressed with this news indicator, however the past 2 months have seen it turn around. Possibly now that there is less fear in the markets, traders are again looking at the data. Back in August a -1.4 deviation from the expected number (0.5 exp -1.4 actual) caused a quick blip down and retraced well past the pre-release price: Click here for chart

However then in September a -1.5 deviation gave a nice spike, small retrace and a continued move down, very nice trading. View Chart

Then last month a tiny +0.4 deviation gave a nice spike, then went flat, but again then continued. Of course we cannot forget the prevaling trend and sentiment in the AUD during that period. See chart


So I decide to follow with a 0.4 deviation from the expected number of 0.5, so 0.9 or great I would buy, and 0.1 of less I would sell. This month we also had the quarterly numbers which should not conflict with the month on month number. There was a conflict , the m/m was -0.7 and the q/q was +0.1, however the q/q numbers were slightly delayed, so the market had a good reaction down on the m/m number. But it was a fast initial spike down and I could not get out at the bottom before it started to bounce, so I missed about 15 more pips, but still I got 40 pips so I was happpy

RBA Raises 0.25% but some expected more

Here is a trade from last night Nov.3rd 2009, Austrailian Central Bank was expected to raise rates by 0.25%, however 20% of analysts expected a 0.5% rise. This meant if they only raised 0.25% as most expected we could get a short trade because some expected them to raise rates more. If they did raise to 0.5% this would have been an excellent long trade, and if they held study this would be even a better short trade.

As you see in the image, there was some volatility before the release, looks like some rumor was leaked that the AUD central bank would not raise so much, anyhow the price came back up just as before the news release. They only raise 0.25% and I go short on AUDJPY, I was saving AUDUSD for a bigger trade if they held at no change, or raised 0.5% for a bigger move. Quickly AUDJPY moves about 18 pips in my favor, and I cash out, mostly because of the strange prenews volatility (did someone know something I did not) anyhow I was out a bit too early as AUDJPY hung in this price zone for about 1 minute, but then fell another 25-30 pips, again I take the safe pips. I will work on exiting half and leaving a bit for a continued move, however having traded these for awhile, I know sometimes they can reverse pretty fast.

UK Interest Rates - Afterspike and Swing Trade