EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Decent Deviation in Trend Direction but

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on Thursday April 5th 2012 the Natural Gas Storage Figures were released from the EIA. They had a bearish Build of +8, a pretty decent number but the spike was quite fast and there was not a continuation. On April 2nd, the active Natural Gas Future Contract NG broke $2.1 which I believe was the low from September 2001, thus making a new decade low. Price prompted bounced from this historic level all the way back to $2.20.

So this may mark a turning point, the historic low has now been taken out, what will happen to this this downtrend in NatGas. Certainly the price was not so willing to continue moving downwards on this quite decent deviation although it was quite a good spike move. Could things go sidewise or is Natural Gas going to make a further push beyond $2.10 perhaps attempting the key $2.00 level. Time will tell, for now there maybe a break with some sidewise action as the winter ends.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage change
Estimates- Median: 34 Average: 34 Low: 25 High: 45
Actual: 42 Prior: 57 No Revisions

Here is a 30 second chart of the May NG contract. It shows how it snapped back all the way to the 78% of the initial sppike move. There was also of bouncing off the pivot as price did tend to move gradually back to the downside, but never took out the initial spike lows...for now at least, perhaps eventually.

Canada Employment Change - Big Deviation, Big Spike and Continuation - like the old days

This Thrusday afternoon, at 13:30 GMT (8:30 EST) the Employment figures were released out of Canada. This data is normally on Friday's but it is Easter tomorrow, it also is normally at 7:00 EST but the BOE was doing there Interest Rate decision at that time so it was good they moved it to the 8:30am slot. Finally also normally NFP is only 90 minutes after this data, so it was good it wasn't today because the Canadian Dollar had time to just trend and continue without any worry of NFP coming along and changing everything in terms of the US DOllar or the Japanese Yen or Risk sentiment in general.

The market had been risk off in general..bad Spanish bond auction yesterday sparked renewed concerns and the Euro extended the sell-off already instigated by the Fed Minutes on Tuesday.

Anyhow here is that Canadian Data:


Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: +10.5k Average: +13.2k Low: +5.0k High: +40.0k
Actual: +82.3k Prior: -2.8k No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +7.4% Average: +7.4% Low: +7.4% High: +7.5%
Actual: +7.2% Prior: +7.4% No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: +70.0k Prior: +9.1k

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +12.4k Prior: -12.0k

Here are some 10 second charts:

The USDJPY which has been selling off since reaching 84.00 on March 15th, did take a turn back up and thus supported further gains on CADJPY.

A rumor of a major European bank in trouble which might need to be nationalised hit the wires about 10-15 minutes after the release, this helped the sell-off in the EURCAD and also made it more difficult for the USDCAD to sell-off. But this was probably just some BS the brokers paid the news wires to send down to the retail side, and it soon washed off and EURUSD bounced back up after hitting a significant fib level at 1.3050.

As this final 1 minute chart on the USDCAD forex pair shows the move developed some good momentum which continued for about 3 hours.

Germany Industrial Production - Data Leak leads to sell off before the release

Today on Thursday April 5th 2012, the Industrial Production figures for Germany were released. The data came out at 11:00 GMT (6:00 EST). This blog entry is included as it shows what is sometimes refered to as "Buy the rumor, sell the news", but often it can be "Sell the leak, buy the news"....and either it shows how good the research departments at the major banks are, or that indeed the information is getting leaked from the Department of Statistics from some underpaid secretary or janitor. Also it does show that the estimates provided to Bloomberg which are used to compose the 'Median Estimate' can also be skewed to provide the wrong forward projection for the release, when elsewhere it is known to be different. Whatever it is, we have no proof other than the proof of the price chart.

Here is the data:

Germany Industrial Production MoM (sa)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.4% Low: -1.9% High: +1.3%
Actual: -1.3% Prior: +1.6% Revised: +1.2%

Germany Industrial Production YoY (nsa wda)
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Low: -1.8% High: +2.3%
Actual: -1.0% Prior: +1.8% Revised: +1.5%

As we can see it was much lower. Now from the start of the European session it was very natural to sell EURUSD from its Central pivot point at 1.3160...it soon moved down to the big round number of 1.3100, and quite naturally took out stops there and moved down further into the 1.3080-95 region. However then the further extension from there down to 1.3060 in the 15 minutes leading into the release of the German data was highly suspect and points to early release amoungst an elite few. The data came out and there was no further price reaction, indeed the EURUSD had sold off all it could by that time, and a period of slow profit taking commenced which moved the pair back into the 1.3080 zone.

Here is the chart, the red mark is where the data was released:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Big Build leads to big sell off

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on wednesday april 4th, the energy inventory figures where released from the DOE. There was a big build on crude. After a data filled session with Services PMI figure in Europe, then US ADP and ISM figures. Not to mention yesterday afternoon Fed minutes still driving the markets causing the US dollar to appreciate against all the majors. Finally this Crude Inventory finished off the data for the day. There is alot more data tomorrow as it is the 1st week of the month, generally alot of data come but because of Easter Friday everything has be come out by Thursday, with the exception of NFP which the markets will open up especially for.

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median: +2500k Average: +2027k Low: -1500k High: +3500k
Actial: +9009k Prior: +7102k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
5 Estimates: Median: -500k Average: -123k Low: -1000k High: +1250k
Actial: +19kk Prior: -711k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median: -1400k Average: -941k Low: -2500k High: +1750k
Actial: -1457k Prior: -3537k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Mediian: +0.35% Average: +0.36% Low: 0.00% High: +1.00%
Actial: +1.20% Prior: +2.30% No Revision

DOES Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actial: 729k Prior: 1043k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14536 Prior: 14075

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4553.3 Prior: 4551.6

DOE Gasoline Impled Demand
Actual: 9163.4 Prior: 9090.4


Here is a 15 second chart, after the release there was a few moments to sell at 102.30-40 to catch the inital spike down, but it moved very fast. AFterwards there was a 38% pullback of the spike range which gave a nice renetry and price continued to move down from this 102.25 level for over 100 ticks.

Norway Retail Sales - Yesterday Sweden today Norway...wow for Scandinavian Data!!!

Another whopper news trading spike this time coming from Norway. This Friday morning at 9:00 GMT (4:00 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released. There was a decent sized deviation, and while larger deviations in the past have had more modest moves and reversed, this one did continue for quite awhile. Perhaps it is because the EURNOK forex pair is off its extreme lows and has retraced giving the Norwegian Krona room to appreciate versus the Euro.

Anyway here is the data:

Norway Retail Sales - vol sa (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: -0.1% Low: -1.0% High: +0.6%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: +0.9% No Revision

Norway Retail Sales Vol. nsa. (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +2.7% Average: +3.0% Low: +1.8% High: +4.8%
Actual: +7.4% Prior: +6.7% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURNOK forex pair:

This 1 minute chart shows how the move continued for some time and gave many pullbacks which were easy opportunities to scalp additional shorts in the direction of the momentum flow caused by the news.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Nice Big Build Sparks Large Down Spike in already downtrending market

This afternoon of Thursday March 29th at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change Figures were released from the EIA. This market continues to trend lower and lower, and it appears nearly certain that eventually the $2 mark will be tested. The market had been in risk-off mode especially the Australian Dollar which has been hit particularly hard on talk of a slowdown in China and the assumption that the RBA would cut rates at its next meeting. Moves could be exacerbated by the end of Q1 at the end of march, the last trading day of the quarter is tomorrow. Profits are being booked and bad positions dumped to square the books so quarterly reports show decent gains or that the risk profile is agreeable.

Anyway here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: 48 Average: 49 Low: 40 High: 70
Actual: 57 Prior: 11 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart...unfortunately I lost my broadband connection a few seconds before the release, and by the time I got it restored the data had been released. I chased the move at a bad location. I was still able to get a few point despite this obvious bad execution. Despite my 7 years of trading experience, that is 7 years of at least 40 hours a week in front of the charts, not to mention a decade of trading stocks on daily charts after work, it never ceases to amaze me how I am still prone to make trading errors. The feeling that I missed out causing me to chase at a badly considered entry. Feeling regret for loosing my broadband causing me to try and make up for missing the event. Oh well, we do get better with time and these errors get fewer and far between, we also get much better at recognizing when we have made one and quick to stop our self's from progressing further with it. Anyway here is that chart:

This is the 1 minute chart of the May 2012 Natural Gas Future Contract NG, which now carries more volume than the April contract. One can see that there were some obvious pullback and momentum waves which could have been taken advantage of. After my initial blunder I just decided to stand aside. Not to mention the fact that the Australian Dollar was in the final stages of selling off to some very strong support ahead of 1.0300. I remain primarily a Forex trader and Commodity futures is really just a sideshow.

Here some charts of Chesapeake, Devon and Cabot Stocks which usually follow the Natural Gas. Although they usually follow it better if it is not trending down so much as these stock also follow the stock market. So although initially they did move down they did pullback a bit later but then did progress much lower as the session progreessed:

Chesapeake Energy Corp. or CHK 1 minute chart

Devon Energy Corp. or DVN Stock 1 minute chart

and finally Cabot Oil & Gas or COB Stock 1 minute chart

Swedish Retail Sales - Much better print lead to steep decline in EURSEK forex pair

This morning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released from Sweden. They cam in alot higher than expecting and surprised the market. This lead to a very nice appreciation in the Swedish Krona forex pair. Due to the fact that none of the popular forex news sites seem to have data from the Norway and Swedish Krona pairs, despite the fact that there is very good reactions to news announcements from these countries, we find it necessary to record these moves whenever we can. Although we admit, sometimes we are so busy we cannot always keep up with the blog. There is just so much news, and our technical trading systems churn out their own pips and keep us plenty occupied. Anyway enough ranting. As for the environment, a pretty general trading day, more talk about China, apparently a rumor of a RRR giving a bit of positive risk sentiment to the market lifting the majors although they did dip overnight, especially the AUDUSD, the pair most vulnerable to the China slowdown theme.

Here is the Swedish Data:

Sweden Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Low: -0.2% High: +0.4%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +0.1% Revised: +0.2%

Sweden Retail Sales n.s.a. (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +1.6% Average: +1.9% Low: +1.2% High: +3.0%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +1.5% Revised: +1.6%

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURSEK forex pair:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories

Firstly apologies for the lack of post recently. You may have an idea of just how long it takes to maintain a blog like this, taking charts, compiling data. etc. The idea here is to have something more than just a historical chart of last months move on the data...it is to also give a background to what else was going on in the market at the time the data came out. This can give us News Trader insights on why some news worked better or worse at certain times. I will try and keep up better, I also have a few charts waiting to be uploaded.

Other than that times have been exciting as a new strategy shows incredibly positive results and has lead me to a 3rd month of profitable trading.

Anyhow there was quite a decent sized deviation in Crude today but there again was a conflict with the rest of the complex. The large 4500k Build did spike down crude but it was a rather tame spike by past standards and did reverse and then went choppy. It was quite a risk off day with the Australian Dollar leading the move down as expectations are from the RBA to cut rates in response to the slowdown in China.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2550k Average: +2367k Low: 0k High: +3500k
Actual: +7102k Prior: -1162k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -500k Average: -413k Low: -3500k High: +1700k
Actual: -711k Prior: +1763k

DOE U.s. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -1342k Low: -2500k High: +800k
Actual: -3537k Prior:-1214k

DOE Cushing OK Crude Iventory
Actual: +1043k Prior: -176k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14075 Prior: 14216

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4551.6 Prior: 4173.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9090.4 Prior: 8759.4

Here is a 15 second chart of the Active May 2012 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Future Contract. You can see my entry at the low of the spike, looking to take advantage of the conflict across the complex, and although some profit was achieved, it was not substantial and after a near scare, I exited near breakeven with great relief.

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - Fading the hot news Flash - Go with the Trend

This Thursday afternoon of March 15th 2012 at 10:30 EST (14:30 GMT) the EAI Natural Gas Storage Change figures were released. They had a bullish draw however the Natural Gas Future Contract continues to trend lower getting ever more closer to decade lows seen after 9/11

Here is the data:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -59 Average: -58 High: -50 Low: -65
Actual: -64 Prior: -80 No Revisions

Here is a 10 second chart showing fading the initial upward spike reaction to the bullish news. Don't try this at home folks, unless you are experienced at trading and know how to manage risk. The Natural Gas Future is like a slippery eel and it can move faster than virtually any other instrument...indeed sometimes its price action can best be described with one word: GAS!!!

Here is the Daily chart of the active month continuous Natural Gas Future, showing the downtrend. The trend is your friend, don't fight it...while there was money to be made with the quick money move on the instant spike reaction to the news deviation, with the right technological tools of course, always be aware of the trend when trading...news trading or otherwise:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - Small Higher print Spike Down

Natural Gas is still under pressure, at nearly decade lows. I have spoken about the reasons for this in previous blog posts but basically it has made trading this news release a bit trickier. However this is mostly for a negative deviation or Draw which normally would have a bullish reaction spike higher, but with the sell off in Natural Gas any spike up in it is just an opportunity to sell into the down trend.

Today was the reverse, the figure came out high and higher storage means higher supply and with the low demand due to a warm winter, the Natural Gas Future Contract NQ spiked down.

Natural Gas can spike quite well on this release, in fact I have seen deviations of just +/-2 move the market nicely. So although something closer to +/-7 is safer this +5 did work out very well.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates -> Median: -85 Average: -84 Low: -92 High: -56
Actual: -80.00 Prior: -82 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the NQ Natural Gas Future Contract with volume at the bottom.

Bank of Canada - Interest Rate Statement strengthens the Canadian Dollar

This Thursday afternoon of March 8th 2012 at 14:00 GMT (9:00 EST) the Bank of Canada released there announcement on Interest Rates. All analysts surveyed expected no change from the Central Bank, however they do release a statement about why they decided not to change the rate this time.

These statements are watched by the market to see if they give any clues about the next move from the Bank of Canada. Sometimes they include revisions to the Central Banks forecasts on GDP and CPI inflation.

Anyhow as expected the BOC left rates unchanged at 1.00% however they did make some positive statements on growth, they also said that monetary policy was already low and there was lots of stimulus which sounded like "we are not going to be giving you anymore because you already have enough"...this is what a parent says to a little child when they ask for more candy. The markets want candy, which is cheap money dumped on them from Central Banks. ;)

Anyway here is a link to the statement.

The Canadian Dollar appreciated by about 40 pips, however in the heat of the moment it may have been difficult to catch it if you were still reading thru the statement. There must be algorithmic language processing programs that interpret the statement pretty quickly. Here the charts:

First is the 10 second chart of the USDCAD

This is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY

Australian Employment Lower - Brisk sell-off reverses as Risk Sentiment improves

This evening of Wednesday March 7th 2012 at 19:30 EST (Thursday March 8th at 00:30 GMT) the monthly Employment figures were released from Australia. This figure can affect the price of the Australian Dollar forex pairs quite alot, but sometimes the data is delayed arriving accross the various economic news delivery platforms due the method this number is released in Australia.

Anyhow there is still opportunities here as it is still quick and often the moves are quite big so even if you miss the first 20-30 pips you can still get a chuck. Sometimes the whole move occurs in the 1st minute and then just goes flat. A few hours after going side-wise it can then continue the move or retrace.

During Wednesday the markets started to find a risk-on bid after several days of Risk-off selling pressure, pretty much since Wednesday last week on February 29th. That was the end of the month, Beranke had made his congressional testimony and there was a lower ISM data print from the USA.

So despite the bad Australian GDP yesterday, and then today's bad Employment data, the Australian dollar after of course selling off quite a bit in the intial news reaction, turned around and rallied over night as the markets turned bad to a positive risk sentiment mode. Alot of it is due to a higher level of participation in the Greek PSI Bond Swap deal.

Here is the data:

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates -> Median: 5.0k Average: 3.5k Low: -20.0k High: +17.0k
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +46.3k Revised: +46.2k

Australia Employment Change
Estimates -> Median: +5.2% Average: +5.2% Low: +5.1% High: +5.4%
Actual: +5.2% Prior: +5.1% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Actual: 0.0k Prior: +12.3k Revised: +15.3k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +34.0k Revised: +30.9k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates -> Median: 65.3% Average: 65.3% Low: 65.2% High: 65.5%
Actual: 65.2% Prior: 65.3% No Revision

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDUSD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDJPY

Here is the 30 second chart of the EURAUD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDNZD, this one is interesting because this one held the lows much longer than the other pairs, and actually continued to drop into the next day. This is important to be aware of in the context of the broader risk on/off sentiment driving the markets, coupling the right currencies against each others can offset that dynamic parameter.

Certainly if you are using the news to trade a bit longer term, this is necessary. First to be aware of the overall types of headlines driving the market moves and then to choose the right pair. Here is the same AUDNZD pair on the 5 minute time frame thru the next several hours after the release.

Here is the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD for comparison.

New Zealand Interest Rates - RBNZ Bollard blames strong New Zealand Dollar

This evening on Wednesday March 7th 2012 at 20:00 GMT (15:00 EST) the Interest Rate Decision and accompanying statement were released from the RBNZ. All analysts expected the RBNZ to hold rates steady at 2.5% and that is exactly what happened, however as often happens with this release, despite no change to rates, the Kiwi Dollar price moves according to the statement which is released which is closely watched to try and figure out what and when the next move out of the RBNZ will be.

This time RBNZ's Bollard brought up the rapid appreciation of the New Zealand dollar as being a factor which makes further hiking of Interest Rates Unnecessary. Here is a link to the statement.

Here is the 30 second chart of the NZDUSD and NZDJPY both sold off when Bollard made this statement.

US DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Mixed reading but Crude rallies anyhow

Today March 7th 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Department of Energy (DOE) released the Inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. The numbers were mixed across the complex with Crude and Distillate a draw but Gasoline a build. Also the deviations were not very big.

Crude oil has sold off somewhat from the $110 a barrel highs on the evening of March 1st. Crude was going up mostly in response to the geopolitical tension with Iran in the Gulf, but as most risky assets have sold off recently, so to has Crude pulled back about $5-6 and was come down to test the $105 key handle, dipping below it as far at $104.36 in typical crude fashion. It has a was of getting quite volitile and pushing thru key support or resistance zones and then snapping back even quicker. It appears the market was just waiting for this number to be released, as despite the figures Crude started to rally anyhow. The Yen crosses had started to rally about before the market open, and half an hour after this release the US Dollar index started to move off its key level highs of 80.00 which accelerated the move in Crude to the upside.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +840k Low Estimate: -3500k High Estimate: +3000k
Actual: +832k Prior: +4160k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1650k Average: -1345k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: +1000k
Actual: -1944k Prior: -2069k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1600k Average: -1600k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: -500k
Actual: -396k Prior: -1600k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.06% Low Estimate: -0.75% High Estimate: +0.50%
Actual: +0.30% Prior: -1.90% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +2365k Prior: +1648k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14399 Prior: +14407 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4668.7 Prior: +4796.6 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8878.1 Prior: +8979.4 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the Crude Oil Future

Also some Energy Stocks. The smaller ones seem to react better than the big ones like EXXon or BP, I guess since these larger ones have their fingers in lots of pies. Both Devon and Chesapeake followed Crude pretty well, but Cabot took was whippy at first and took longer to resolve upward with the general trend in Energy.

US ADP - Flat Print market just hiccups

Today on March 7th 2012 at 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST) the ADP figures were released from the USA. These figures are said to be a leading indicator for Friday highly anticipated NFP release. Not sure however how accurate it is at forecasting the NFP, regardless if it has a big enough deviation from expectations the market will rally. Today it was flat however and the market just did a little hiccup and then continued.

The market is awaiting the NFP on Friday and also the ECB will announce their latest Interest Rate decision tomorrow along with Mario Draghi's Press Conference. To top it off the deadline for the Greek PSI Bond Swap Deal is 8pm GMT on Thursday and the market has been reacting to headlines about the % of PSI voluntary participation in the deal. If the level is not high enough there maybe CAC (collective action clauses) invoked on those who do not accept the deal and this could trigger some CDS (Credit Default Swaps)...the whole maneuver appears specifically to be designed to get around the legal phrasing of the CDS so Greece can do some sort of orderly default without crumbling the whole house of cards which all these derivatives have built up. One thing triggering another and on and on.

Here is the data:

US ADP
Estimates -> Median: +215k Average: +211k Low: +120k High: +270k
Actual: +216k Prior: +170k Revised: +173k

About a 15 minutes later 2 smaller reports were released, these normally don't get much attention:


US Nonfarm Productivity
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.9% Low: +0.5% High: +1.6%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.7% No Revision

US Unit Labor Costs
Estimates -> Median: +1.2% Average: +1.4% Low: +0.7% High: +2.8%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future:

This is the 15 second chart of the DAX

Just to be complete here are the 1 minute charts of the USDJPY and CADJPY forex pairs, they usually are quite good at following the movement Stock Indices. You can see they just wiggled a bit when the data was released. However the Yen Crosses have been rallying hard over the past 2 weeks but took a break and retraced during the 1st half of this week. This move was due as they were quite overbought. They seemed to get some attention in and have started to bounce off these retracement levels.

German Factory Orders Lower - DAX Sells off

This morning of March 7th at 11:00 GMT (6:00 EST) the Factory Orders were released from Germany. This is not one I ordinarily watch, but there was a really nice deviation on it today and I am usually trading the DAX during the day, so really liked the move and thought I should mention it here.

Here is the data:

Germany Factory Orders YoY (nsa)
Estimates- Median: -1.7% Average: -1.6% Low Estimate: -3.2% High Estimate: +0.4%
Actual: -4.9% Prior: 0.0% No Revision

Germany Factory Orders MoM (sa)
Estimates- Median: +0.6% Average: +0.6% Low Estimate: -1.8% High Estimate: +2.1%
Actual: -2.7% Prior: +1.7% Revised: +1.6%

This is the 15 second chart of the DAX Future Contract which shows the move lower on this bad print.

This 1 minute chart of the DAX shows more of the price action after the release it continued to sell off for awhile.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the EURUSD, although the pair had already sold off a bit ahead of the news, the news certainly did not help as the pair has been selling off alot this week. Still the DAX was the preferred instrument to trade.

Norway Industrial Production/Manufacturing - Much better print leads to NOK Krona Rally

This morning on March 7th 2012 at 9:00 GMT (4:00 EST) the Industrial Production and Manufacturing figures were released from Norway. It was an improvement on last month's release and the EURNOK sold off in Krona strength.

Here is the data:

Norway Ind Prod Manufacturing SA MoM
Estimates -> Median: +0.4% Average: +0.4% Low: -0.2% High: +1.0%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -0.2%

Norway Ind Prod Manufacturing WDA YoY
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.7% Low: +0.3% High: +1.1%
Actual: +1.7% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +0.7%

Norway Industrial Production SA MoM
Actual: +4.5% Prior: -2.2%

Norway Industrial Prod, WDAJ YOY
Actual: +3.0% Prior: -4.9%

Here is the 1 minute chart of the EURNOK forex pair showing the immediate price reaction to the news release:

This is the 5 minute chart of the EURNOK forex pair, which shows it did continue to sell off from some time.

Australia GDP - much lower than expected sharp Australian Dollar sell off

Last night at 17:30 EST on March 6th 2012 (00:30 GMT on March 7th) and technically the morning on March 7th in Australia where the data was released, the quarterly GDP figures were release for Australia. This data only comes out once a quarter and thus it is usually a good news event to trade because there is a big likelyhood for a surprise, unlike the GDP from the UK where prelimin, advance and final releases make things rather predictable.

This data came out much lower, and the Australian Dollar fell quite sharply. The pair is really the darling currency because it has one of the best yields of any of the developed economies. The fall was rather brief however and by the start of the European session the pair had mostly regained the loss.

Here is the data:


Australia GDP (QoQ)
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.8% Low: +0.4% High: +1.1%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +1.0% Revised: +0.8%

Australia GDP (YoY)
Estimates -> Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Low: +2.1% High: +2.8%
Actual: +2.3% Prior: +2.5% Revised: +2.6%

Here are the 30 second charts of the AUDUSD, AUDJPY and EURAUD forex pairs which show the reaction in price after the deviation caused a surprise against what was expected from my analysts.

API Crude Inventories

At 21:30 GMT on Tuesday March 6th 2012 (16:30 EST) the API Inventory figures were released for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. No estimates on this one but it does give a heads up on tomorrows DOE Inventory release. There were builds on Crude and Distillates, however a Draw on Gasoline and thus quite mixed.

here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +4583k Prior: +521k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +924k Prior: -3311k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -2252k Prior: -916k

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +2377k Prior: +1639k

This data is released during a quiet time after the market close so there is not that much volume around. The Crude oil future did drop on this Build, which is usually bearish, however this drop did not last long and soon after the price came back to pre-release. This is minor release which sometimes works for 20-30 ticks but without estimates and the release time can vary by a minute or two.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front month Crude oil future contract:

Canada Ivey PMI - much better but markets in Risk-Off and don't care

This afternoon at 15:00 GMT on Tuesday March 6th 2012 (10:00 EST) the Ivey PMI figures were released from Canada. These numbers usually do not cause much of a reaction unless there is a very big deviation, however sometimes a more modest deviation can cause a slower trend to form.

The figures were quite good, however the market is in Risk-off mode as the amount of PSI involvement of the Greek Bond Swap deal is very much getting attention as the final deadline approaches.

Here is the data:

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Estimates -> Median: 62.0 Average: 62.4 Low: 58.5 High: 66.0
Actual: 66.5 Prior: 64.1 No Revision

Here are 2 quick 5 minute charts of USDCAD and CADJPY forex pairs, just for the record...

Australia RBA Cash Target - AUDUSD Drops on RBA statement of possible further easing

Last night Monday February 5th 2012 at 22:30 EST (03:30 GMT on Tuesday February 6th) the RBA made their decision on hold Interest Rates steady at 4.25%. This was expected by all analysts unlike last month where all but 3 of the 27 surveyed by Bloomberg expected a cut. The Australian Economy seems to be holding up well enough, despite a small slowdown in China, however the RBA is watching affairs unfold in Europe and is aware that this will affect the global economy and expressed their intention to lower rates if things get worse.

Here is a link to their Statements

So the market took this as a cue that the next move from the RBA could still be a cut and thus the Australian Dollar Forex pairs fell.

Here is a 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair:

and this is the 1 minute chart of the AUDJPY forex pair