API Crude Inventories

At 21:30 GMT on Tuesday March 6th 2012 (16:30 EST) the API Inventory figures were released for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. No estimates on this one but it does give a heads up on tomorrows DOE Inventory release. There were builds on Crude and Distillates, however a Draw on Gasoline and thus quite mixed.

here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +4583k Prior: +521k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +924k Prior: -3311k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -2252k Prior: -916k

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +2377k Prior: +1639k

This data is released during a quiet time after the market close so there is not that much volume around. The Crude oil future did drop on this Build, which is usually bearish, however this drop did not last long and soon after the price came back to pre-release. This is minor release which sometimes works for 20-30 ticks but without estimates and the release time can vary by a minute or two.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front month Crude oil future contract:

API Crude Oil Inventories - Small Build over prior week

This evening of February 22nd 2012 at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) the weekly API energy supply inventory numbers were released. This normally comes out on a Tuesday night, but as it was a holiday in the USA on Monday they were released on Wednesday night instead.

Here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +3551k Prior: +2902k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +630k Prior: -2156k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +314k Prior: +1812k

API Cushing Crudde OK Inventory
Actual: -344k Prior +1983k

API Crude Oil Inventories - decent draw on Crude and Distillate but build on Gasoline

Yesterday evening, February 7th 2012, at 21:30 GMT (16:30 EST) the Weekly Inventory Supply figures for Energy Items was released from the American Petroleum Institute or API. There was a decent draw, or lower deviation, on Crude compared to the previous week. Also a more modest draw in Distillate but actually a build on Gasoline. Recently it does appear that these Energy numbers are working better again with last week's DOE number working quite well, although in that case all 3 figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline deviated in the same direction. The past few weeks has seen more indecisive moves when the 3 do not agree. The API is released quite late in the day after most markets are closed so it does not get alot of attention. The Active Front-Month Crude Contract did move in the right direction indicated by the deviation in the data, but it was quite a small move. In the past moves of 20-40 ticks have been possible on this news trading this data.

Here is the Data:

API U.S Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -4533k Prior: +2067K

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +385k Prior: +1482K

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +386k Prior: +970K

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +4429k Prior: -222K

This is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract. Perhaps it was possible to get 20 ticks from this but depends on if there was any slippage. Normally it is safer to wait for the larger deviations to bring larger moves so if there is any slippage there is good probability of seeing a continuation of the move past the initial spike reaction to trading the news data release. The Red Arrow indicated when the data was released, however this news is not always released exactly on time so we can see on the chart that the price started to react the minute before.

API Crude Oil Inventories - quite a build but little reaction

This evening at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) on January 24th the weekly Inventories report for Crude Oil, Distillate and Gasoline was released from the American Petroleum Institute or API. There was quite a build on Crude but Draws on Distillate and Gasoline. Normally a build especially this large is quite bearish, there was a small pop down but nothing much.

Here are the figures:


API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +7331k Prior: -4809k No Revision

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +386k Prior: -819k No Revision

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: -2464k Prior: -900k No Revision

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -573k Prior: +4309k No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Active Crude Oil Future, it did pop down 20 ticks,
but retraced back to pre-release soon there after:

API Crude Oil Inventories - big draw down lead to spike higher

This wednesday night at 21:30 GMT (16:30 EST) the Inventory figures for Crude Oil, Distillates and Gasoline were released by the American Petroleum Institute (API). There was a big negative deviation which means supply is lower and thus the Crude Oil Future spiked higher at first about 30 ticks and then continued about an 90 minutes later. Here the figures:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -4809k Prior: +397k
API U.S. Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: -819k Prior: -173k
API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: -900k Prior: +846k
API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +4309k Prior: +1892k

This sets up tomorrow's DOE numbers to come out with another big draw and could lend further upward buying flows to Crude. Here is the 1 minute chart of the move:

Crude API Inventory Numbers - A Surprise Build

Tuesday night at 9:30pm GMT (4:30pm EST) the Inventory numbers for Petroleum products was released from the American Petroleum Institute (API). These figures come out the night before the more important and widely watched Department Of Energy figures which come out during the active trading period near the open of the market in the USA. Past few weeks these inventory numbers have come out with a draw, or with a negative deviation, indicating lower supplies and thus prices have moved higher. Well the Energy companies must have been listening and increased their production because last night the API numbers came out higher, indicating a build in inventory, this caused prices to move lower. Here are the numbers:

API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +5.2M V -2ME; GASOLINE: -500K V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -310K V -1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 83.6% V 84.2%E
- Cushing crude inventory: 460K to 33.38M barrels

Liquidity at the time of this release is quite thin, however there was ample time and liquidity to enter safely as long as the trade was not a huge amount of contracts. The concern can be more about how price action can be rather fidgety, especially when trading energy futures which are probably have the most volatile price fluctuations. Trading the CL Futures contract is $10 per 1 cent change in price unless you have access to CFDs or a Spreadbet platform. Regardless some patience was needed, if the trader was able to get in quickly as soon as the news was released then some ticks were safely locked in, as the first retracement after the news was very shallow, just some 10 ticks and hardly a 23%, which is just not enough for me personally usually unless the deviation is very good. About 4 minutes after the release, a decent 38% retracement occurred, it was front-run by a few pips by was good enough. The Crude Oil Future then moved off this 81.20 level down to nearly 80.90, for about +25 ticks after spread, although various take-profit levels are circled in the chart, taking profits on portions of the trade as you go. This was on a news afterspike trade, one may have also straddled this report and got a much better fill.

API Petroleum Inventories - Another positive deviation

Have commented on this report for a few weeks now. Although it is released during a quiet time of the day and the release time varies slightly. The past few weeks however it has come out pretty much precisely at 9:30pm GMT (4:30pm EST). The data comes ahead of tomorrow's more important Department of Energy Inventories at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST), which is more important. Generally a lower number is good for Crude as it indicates less supply, less supply equals higher price. Here are the numbers:

*API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -7.65M V -500KE; GASOLINE: -1.65M V -500KE; DISTILLATE: +220K V -2ME; UTILIZATION: 81.5% V 82.9%E
- Cushing crude inventory: 1.07M to 32.92M barrels

So nearly a 7 million barrel draw on crude inventories below expectations. As the included chart shows, there was a move up heading into the news - perhaps the news got leaked. Still when the news did get released the December Crude Oil Futures Contract continued to move up an additional 20-25 ticks. After 2-3 minutes it pulled back the the 50% retracement of the news spike and headed back up for a 15 tick news afterspike trade.

API Petroleum Inventories - Crude jumps higher

We reported the move on the Crude Futures last week on this news data. It has been giving great news trades. Unfortunately we was not around to trade this last night as it is release just around dinner time here in London. However it really should be focused on more, but since the data does not always get released on time, perhaps it is best handled with a straddle or bracket order. This number is seen the evening before the main numbers out of the Department of Energy or DOE, which are the most important weekly energy inventory numbers. This number can often give the market a clue as to what the DOE will report the next day, however the numbers frequently come out conflicting with 1 high and the other low, and DOE takes preference - it is a bit like

Tuesday, November 09, 2010 21:30:05
*API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -7.4M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -3.5M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -4M V -2ME; UTILIZATION: 84.3% V 82.1%E
- Cushing crude inventory: -950K to 31.86M barrels

Risk aversion had hit the markets during the New York session and equities & commodities were all lower and the US Dollar was stronger...This report occurs about half an hour after the New York Stock Market close, so liquidity can be low, but it is not watched by many, and as you can observe in the chart. A bracket order 10-15 pips above the market, or possibly entering after the initial 10 second bar would have still yielded the trade at least 40 ticks without 1 red bar. The numbers show that there was a draw on petroleum inventories, expected at +1 but coming in at -7.4, a very big deviation. Less supply equals higher prices and that is why the Crude Oil Futures Contract went higher.

Trading Crude Futures on News - API Petroleum Inventories

So far this blog has been about trading forex, but I have been trading news on any and all markets that show that they react for quite awhile now. This requires alot of research, and some markets move more than others. Why did forex get all the hype? Perhaps because there were so many bucketshops that could not keep up with the real market, the leverage was great too, so someone with a small amount of money and some autoclick software could multiply their money pretty fast. When alot if not most of the bucketshop forex brokers started closing the doors to the forex news trading, traders had to get more intelligent. I have been trading futures and even stocks on news releases for over 2 years now, and the time to start sharing this information is now...Watch this space for more info to come to help you on this journey.

This can be a nice little report, the only problem is the timing of it can vary somewhat. API Petroleum Inventory number can come out 30 seconds late or early depending. This can make it difficult to use the autoclick software from Fast Economic News to get in the spike trade. Instead you can use other strategies such as straddling the Crude Futures Market or waiting for the numbers to come out and if the deviation is big enough, just jumping in. Tonight we did get a big bullish deviation, the number came out much lower, indicating lower supply of Crude according to API...less supply = higher price...assuming demand is constant..I managed to get in about 18 tics from the pre-release price of 83.95 and rode it up for a quick 20 tics over the next minute or two. Here are the numbers:

*API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -4.1M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -3.2M V -500KE; DISTILLATE: -4.7M V -1ME; UTILIZATION: 81.2% V 83.9%E

Crude prices are their highs for the year. This number sets us up for the bigger and more important DOE Energy Numbers on Wednesday which is just before the all important FOMC.