DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Big Build leads to big sell off

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on wednesday april 4th, the energy inventory figures where released from the DOE. There was a big build on crude. After a data filled session with Services PMI figure in Europe, then US ADP and ISM figures. Not to mention yesterday afternoon Fed minutes still driving the markets causing the US dollar to appreciate against all the majors. Finally this Crude Inventory finished off the data for the day. There is alot more data tomorrow as it is the 1st week of the month, generally alot of data come but because of Easter Friday everything has be come out by Thursday, with the exception of NFP which the markets will open up especially for.

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median: +2500k Average: +2027k Low: -1500k High: +3500k
Actial: +9009k Prior: +7102k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
5 Estimates: Median: -500k Average: -123k Low: -1000k High: +1250k
Actial: +19kk Prior: -711k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median: -1400k Average: -941k Low: -2500k High: +1750k
Actial: -1457k Prior: -3537k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Mediian: +0.35% Average: +0.36% Low: 0.00% High: +1.00%
Actial: +1.20% Prior: +2.30% No Revision

DOES Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actial: 729k Prior: 1043k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14536 Prior: 14075

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4553.3 Prior: 4551.6

DOE Gasoline Impled Demand
Actual: 9163.4 Prior: 9090.4


Here is a 15 second chart, after the release there was a few moments to sell at 102.30-40 to catch the inital spike down, but it moved very fast. AFterwards there was a 38% pullback of the spike range which gave a nice renetry and price continued to move down from this 102.25 level for over 100 ticks.

DOE Crude Oil Inventories

Firstly apologies for the lack of post recently. You may have an idea of just how long it takes to maintain a blog like this, taking charts, compiling data. etc. The idea here is to have something more than just a historical chart of last months move on the data...it is to also give a background to what else was going on in the market at the time the data came out. This can give us News Trader insights on why some news worked better or worse at certain times. I will try and keep up better, I also have a few charts waiting to be uploaded.

Other than that times have been exciting as a new strategy shows incredibly positive results and has lead me to a 3rd month of profitable trading.

Anyhow there was quite a decent sized deviation in Crude today but there again was a conflict with the rest of the complex. The large 4500k Build did spike down crude but it was a rather tame spike by past standards and did reverse and then went choppy. It was quite a risk off day with the Australian Dollar leading the move down as expectations are from the RBA to cut rates in response to the slowdown in China.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2550k Average: +2367k Low: 0k High: +3500k
Actual: +7102k Prior: -1162k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -500k Average: -413k Low: -3500k High: +1700k
Actual: -711k Prior: +1763k

DOE U.s. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -1342k Low: -2500k High: +800k
Actual: -3537k Prior:-1214k

DOE Cushing OK Crude Iventory
Actual: +1043k Prior: -176k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14075 Prior: 14216

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4551.6 Prior: 4173.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9090.4 Prior: 8759.4

Here is a 15 second chart of the Active May 2012 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Future Contract. You can see my entry at the low of the spike, looking to take advantage of the conflict across the complex, and although some profit was achieved, it was not substantial and after a near scare, I exited near breakeven with great relief.

US DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Mixed reading but Crude rallies anyhow

Today March 7th 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Department of Energy (DOE) released the Inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. The numbers were mixed across the complex with Crude and Distillate a draw but Gasoline a build. Also the deviations were not very big.

Crude oil has sold off somewhat from the $110 a barrel highs on the evening of March 1st. Crude was going up mostly in response to the geopolitical tension with Iran in the Gulf, but as most risky assets have sold off recently, so to has Crude pulled back about $5-6 and was come down to test the $105 key handle, dipping below it as far at $104.36 in typical crude fashion. It has a was of getting quite volitile and pushing thru key support or resistance zones and then snapping back even quicker. It appears the market was just waiting for this number to be released, as despite the figures Crude started to rally anyhow. The Yen crosses had started to rally about before the market open, and half an hour after this release the US Dollar index started to move off its key level highs of 80.00 which accelerated the move in Crude to the upside.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +840k Low Estimate: -3500k High Estimate: +3000k
Actual: +832k Prior: +4160k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1650k Average: -1345k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: +1000k
Actual: -1944k Prior: -2069k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1600k Average: -1600k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: -500k
Actual: -396k Prior: -1600k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.06% Low Estimate: -0.75% High Estimate: +0.50%
Actual: +0.30% Prior: -1.90% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +2365k Prior: +1648k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14399 Prior: +14407 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4668.7 Prior: +4796.6 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8878.1 Prior: +8979.4 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the Crude Oil Future

Also some Energy Stocks. The smaller ones seem to react better than the big ones like EXXon or BP, I guess since these larger ones have their fingers in lots of pies. Both Devon and Chesapeake followed Crude pretty well, but Cabot took was whippy at first and took longer to resolve upward with the general trend in Energy.

API Crude Inventories

At 21:30 GMT on Tuesday March 6th 2012 (16:30 EST) the API Inventory figures were released for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. No estimates on this one but it does give a heads up on tomorrows DOE Inventory release. There were builds on Crude and Distillates, however a Draw on Gasoline and thus quite mixed.

here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +4583k Prior: +521k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +924k Prior: -3311k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -2252k Prior: -916k

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +2377k Prior: +1639k

This data is released during a quiet time after the market close so there is not that much volume around. The Crude oil future did drop on this Build, which is usually bearish, however this drop did not last long and soon after the price came back to pre-release. This is minor release which sometimes works for 20-30 ticks but without estimates and the release time can vary by a minute or two.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front month Crude oil future contract:

Scalping Crude on the 8 Range Chart

This is an example of a day of scalping the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Contract. What is nice about Crude is it really can move which can mean you are not waiting around all day, this of course can work against you too. You can see an entry at 106.50 about 15:15 did go about -35 ticks which was averaged in. I know averaging in is a no-no in trading but if you consider it as scaling into a position in the short-term it is generally ok, as long as your risk is defined and you know when you are going to get out ahead of time. This was actually a bit out of my comfort zone and added 2 positions to see if it would turn and was about to bail. Crude does have days where it can move very fast so stop placement is critical. The 8 Range chart is very nice because it helps keep you out of the choppy price action, focusing on the movement rather than the time element.

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Mixed Deviations

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 16:00 GMT (11:00 EST) the weekly Department of Energy's Inventory figures were released.. This is normally reported weekly on Wednesdays at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) but because Monday was a holiday in the USA because of Presidents day it get moved to Thursday a half hour later because the EIA Natural Gas is normally reported at 10:30. Normally when there is so much energy supply data coming out within 30 minutes it is more risky than usual. Anyway today did not have very big deviations and they were mixed with Crude and Distillates reporting a build but a draw in Gasoline.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1350k Average: +760k Range: -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +1633k Prior: -171k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -785k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -208k Prior: -2867k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +250k Average: +35k Range: -1500k to +1900k
Actual: -649k Prior: +400k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.23% Range: -1.00% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.5% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -315k Prior: +1990k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14675 Prior: +14599

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4447.7 Prior: +4934.6

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +9244.1 Prior: +8723.4 No Revision

API Crude Oil Inventories - Small Build over prior week

This evening of February 22nd 2012 at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) the weekly API energy supply inventory numbers were released. This normally comes out on a Tuesday night, but as it was a holiday in the USA on Monday they were released on Wednesday night instead.

Here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +3551k Prior: +2902k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +630k Prior: -2156k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +314k Prior: +1812k

API Cushing Crudde OK Inventory
Actual: -344k Prior +1983k

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Deviations agree across the complex

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision
This Wednesday afternoon at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly Energy Inventory numbers were released from the DOE. This time all off the 3 main items: Crude, Gasoline and Distillates were all lower - a draw. This normal is bullish but the deviations from the median expectation was not very big. Crude just whipsawed...it was a risk off day as more delays in Greece threatened the next Greek bailout and PSI bond haircut deal. This print gave a short break from the risk off flows which then came back around 13:00 EST / 18:00 GMT

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision


Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front-month Crude Oil Future:

Also included are some Energy stocks: Devon DVN Cabot COB Chesapeak CHK Exxon XOM and BP
as the 1 minute chart shows some followed the deviation and other did not...a few frontrun the data by a couple of minutes:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Draw on Crude, Build on Rest

This afternoon of Wednesday February 8th 2012, the DOE inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline were released. Last week there was a great news trading profit when the figures on all 3 lined up in agreement. This week there was conflicts. Crude came out with a bullish draw, or lower deviation, but Distillates and Gasoline deviated higher for a Build, which is normally bearish.

Here is the data:
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Median: +2500k Average: +2560k Range: +2000k to +4200k
Actual: +304k Prior: +4175k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Median: -875k Average: -700k Range: -2000k to +800k
Actual: +1174k Prior: -135k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Median: +875k Average: +290k Range: -2000k to +1700k
Actual: +1629k Prior: +3017k No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +367k Prior: +1476k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14133 Prior: +14004

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4432.3 Prior: +4732.3

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8664.6 Prior: +8593.0

Crude initially followed the bullish draw on its own deviation and blipped up a bit but was reversed by the Bearish Build in the Gasoline and Distillates. Here is a 1 minute chart of the Crude oil future from a spreadbet:

Also included are some 1 minute chart of Energy Stocks, just to show how they moved after the news.

Devon - DVN

Cabot - COB

Chesapeake - CHK

Exxon - XOM

and finally BP

API Crude Oil Inventories - decent draw on Crude and Distillate but build on Gasoline

Yesterday evening, February 7th 2012, at 21:30 GMT (16:30 EST) the Weekly Inventory Supply figures for Energy Items was released from the American Petroleum Institute or API. There was a decent draw, or lower deviation, on Crude compared to the previous week. Also a more modest draw in Distillate but actually a build on Gasoline. Recently it does appear that these Energy numbers are working better again with last week's DOE number working quite well, although in that case all 3 figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline deviated in the same direction. The past few weeks has seen more indecisive moves when the 3 do not agree. The API is released quite late in the day after most markets are closed so it does not get alot of attention. The Active Front-Month Crude Contract did move in the right direction indicated by the deviation in the data, but it was quite a small move. In the past moves of 20-40 ticks have been possible on this news trading this data.

Here is the Data:

API U.S Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -4533k Prior: +2067K

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +385k Prior: +1482K

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +386k Prior: +970K

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +4429k Prior: -222K

This is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract. Perhaps it was possible to get 20 ticks from this but depends on if there was any slippage. Normally it is safer to wait for the larger deviations to bring larger moves so if there is any slippage there is good probability of seeing a continuation of the move past the initial spike reaction to trading the news data release. The Red Arrow indicated when the data was released, however this news is not always released exactly on time so we can see on the chart that the price started to react the minute before.

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Build across the complex

The Crude and Natural Gas Futures prices have not been reacting so well to the news recently, but alot of the deviations have had conflicts on the DOE numbers and Natural Gas is reacting to a warm winter. Today, Wednesday 1st February 2012 at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT), there was a build on all 3 of the main DOE numbers for Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline. There was a decent sized spike on Crude although the deviation on just that number was not very big, but because of the agreement accross the complex it had a good enough sized spike, a retracement which set it up nicely for an afterspike trade to get in short for a further move down.

Here are the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2600k Average: +2408k Range: -1900k to +4900k
Actual: +4175k Prior +3558k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1375k Average: -1275k Range: -3000k to +1500k
Actual: -135k Prior +2456k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +500k Average: +358k Range: -3000k to +2500k
Actual: +3017k Prior: +390k No Revisions

DOE Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.20% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: -0.40% Prior: -1.50% No Revisions

DOE Cushing OK Inventory
Actual: +1476k Prior: +374k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14004 Prior: +14067

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4732.3 Prior: +4881.9

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8593.0 Prior: 8724.0

First here is the 1 minute chart of Crude Oil March 2011 Futures Contract. The Red arrow is when the data was released, the blue line shows the afterspike entry:

Next is a 3 minute chart, this shows how after hitting new lows the Crude oil future chopped mostly sidewise to up, retracing a bit, until about 2 hours after the release when it sold off again to make new lows for the day:

All this is in the context of this 4 hour chart which shows how Crude Oil has been bouncing off a new downtrend line since the bullish Iranian news dominated earlier in January and has now faded from trader's minds for now:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Conflicts across the complex follow API numbers last night

Today January 25th at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the Inventory figures from the U.S. Department of Energy were released. These follow from last night API figures were a big build on Crude came along with draws on Distillates and Gasoline. While there was little reaction to API last night, as it comes out quite late in the day, today's DOE figures did have a nice reaction. Crude Oil is the best to follow but Heating Oil and RBob Gasoline also will move on these figures. Heating Oil is best matched to Distillates and Gasoline to Gasoline of course. However the complex will move in sympathy to deviations accross the complex. Here the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1450k Average: +654k Range: -2100k to +3700k
Actual: +3558k Prior: -3438k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -125k Average: -142k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -2456k Prior: +438k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2000k Average: +1583k Range: -1000k to +2500k
Actual: -390k Prior: +3717k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.6% Average: -0.4% Range: -1.25% to +1.00%
Actual: -1.50% Prior: -1.90% No Revision

DOE U.S. Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +374k Prior: -832k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14067 Prior: 14482 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4881.9 Prior: 4631.4 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8724.0 Prior: 8622.4 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future. Despite the draw it rallied:

of course part of this was the fact that Crude had sold off heading into the news, here is the 5 minute chart of Crude heading into the release:

Also included a 2 minute chart of Chesapeake and a 1 minute chart of Exxon:

API Crude Oil Inventories - quite a build but little reaction

This evening at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) on January 24th the weekly Inventories report for Crude Oil, Distillate and Gasoline was released from the American Petroleum Institute or API. There was quite a build on Crude but Draws on Distillate and Gasoline. Normally a build especially this large is quite bearish, there was a small pop down but nothing much.

Here are the figures:


API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +7331k Prior: -4809k No Revision

API Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: +386k Prior: -819k No Revision

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: -2464k Prior: -900k No Revision

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -573k Prior: +4309k No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Active Crude Oil Future, it did pop down 20 ticks,
but retraced back to pre-release soon there after:

DOE Crude Inventories - Big Draw on Crude but modest Build in Gasoline

Today January 19th 2012, we got the DOE numbers on a Thrusday at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT) instead of their normal weekly release on a Wednesday at 10:30 EST, this was because the week was shorter because of the Martin Luther King holiday on monday. Somehow it is always better when the news comes out in its normal time slot instead of coming out just a half hour after the EIA natural gas supply change figure. Today there was a big draw on Crude, just like the Draw on API the night before, but there was only a quick 30-40 tick spike and things then did reverse. Normally such a big draw would have moved the Crude Oil Future alot more, however there was a build on Gasoline, not huge but not tiny either. Also there is alot of headline risk due to developments in the Gulf with Iran and the progression on the global scale of an embargo due to their uranium enrichment program.

Here are the figures:

US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +3000k Average: +1892k Range: -3000k to +3500k
Actual: -3438k Prior: +4958k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: +1375k Average: +1075k Range: -3000k to +2900k
Actual: +438k Prior: +3985k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2350k Average: +2104k Range: -3000k to +4000k
Actual: +3717k Prior: +3610k No Revision

US DOE U.S Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: +0.6% Range: -2.75% to +1.00%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -832k Prior: -191k No Revision

Us DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14482 Prior: 15043 No Revision

US DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4631.4 Prior: 4350.7 No Revision

US DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8622.4 Prior: 8701.9 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract for March 2011:

Also included are the same 3 minute charts of Exxon and Chesapeake but with a green arrow to show when the DOE numbers hit the wire:

API Crude Oil Inventories - big draw down lead to spike higher

This wednesday night at 21:30 GMT (16:30 EST) the Inventory figures for Crude Oil, Distillates and Gasoline were released by the American Petroleum Institute (API). There was a big negative deviation which means supply is lower and thus the Crude Oil Future spiked higher at first about 30 ticks and then continued about an 90 minutes later. Here the figures:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -4809k Prior: +397k
API U.S. Cushing Crude OK Inventory
Actual: -819k Prior: -173k
API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: -900k Prior: +846k
API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +4309k Prior: +1892k

This sets up tomorrow's DOE numbers to come out with another big draw and could lend further upward buying flows to Crude. Here is the 1 minute chart of the move:

DOE Energy Inventories - Big Build but moderate downward spike with Iran-Gulf bullish fundamentals

Today wednesday Jan 11th at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Department of Energy's Inventories for Crude and other Energy commodities was released. There was quite a decent build of nearly 4000k however the resulting spike down on the oversupply of Crude was rather modest considering how large this build was. In the past builds of 2500k would have caused at least 100 ticks or $1 move lower on the active Crude Futures contract.

Much of this could be do to the continuing situation in the Gulf with Iran. The US and Europe are working to impose sanctions on Iran because of their Uranium Enrichment program. The governments of these countries were going to start blocking the bank acccounts of companies that do business transactions with Iran. So far China, Russia and north korea and perhaps a few others still get oil from Iran but this has reduced their customers. So Iran has been saying they are going to do military training in the gulf and they might actually block the Straight of Hormuz and cut off the oil supply from the rest of the Gulf states to the world. Goverments have agreed to release oil reserve stock piles if this happens. All of this has push the Black stuff higher, so a bearish print on this number was only an opportunity to buy into the uptrend, and soon later the Crude oil future was higher.

A few minutes before the release Russia announced it opposes oil sanctions against Iran, even if Tehran continues enriching Uranium.

Here the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventory
Estimates: Median 1000k Average 854k Range -2750k to +3000k
Actual: +4958k Prior: +2209k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates: Median +2250k Average +2142k Range +500k to +4500k
Actual: +3985k Prior: +3224k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventory
Estimates: Median +2250k Average +2100k Range 0k to +3800k
Actual: +3610k Prior: +2479k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.5% Average +0.3% Range -0.5% to 1.00%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.8% No Revisions
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -1991k Prior: -613k No Revisions
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 15043 Prior: 14559 No Revisions
DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4350.7 Prior: 4600.4 No Revisions
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8701.9 Prior: 9078.6

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future for Feb 2012 delivery:

and here a chart of the stock EXXON at the same time, interestingly it did not bounce like the Crude Oil Future did and continued down further. Other energy stocks like Cheasapeake and Devon energy also had an initial spike down but quite muted and were quick to rebound even before the future did. Correlations often shift depending on all those other things involved in stocks like p/e ratios, dividends, whether the CEO is buying or selling....etc

DOE Energy Inventories - Decent Build leads to muted sell-off

Crude has been strong since the situation in Iran threatening to block the Straits of Hormuz as International Sanctions start to bite....today's build was bearish but the sell-off only moved down the February 2012 Crude Future Contract price down about 60 ticks before it found bids again.

Here the figures:
11:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -1000k Average -754k Range -4000k to +2500k
Actual: +2209k Prior: +3899k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median +1000k Average +488k Range -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +3224k Prior: +1205k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1000k Average +965k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: +2479k Prior: -692k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median 0.50% Average: +0.41% Range: -0.2% to +1.00%
Actual: +0.80% Prior: -0.70% No Revisions

11:00 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -613k Prior: -289k No Revisions

11:00 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14559 Prior: +14279 No Revisions

11:00 DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4600.4 Prior: +4875.9 No Revisions

11:00 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9078.6 Prior: +9446.3 No Revisions

Here is a 1 minute chart of the price action

DOE Energy Inventories - Huge Drawdown leads to pop higher in risk-off sentiment

This wednesday December 21st at 15:30GMT and 10:30EST the DOE Inventories for Energy products was released. Risk was off since after the ECB announcment of its bond program caused an initial pop higher and it was sold into. There was a huge drawdown and Crude spike up over 100 ticks...this was in the midst off a general risk off environment, so the spike didn't continue like it might in other cases since this was a huge drawdown. Also volume is light because it is nearly Christmas holiday.

Here the figueres:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2125k Average -2438k RAnge -4100k to -1000k
Actual: -10570k Prior: -1932k

DOE US Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median -750k Average -350k Range -2000k to +2000k
Actual: -2353k Prior: +480k

DOE US Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1500k Average +1000k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: -412k Prior: +3824k

DOE US Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.38% Average +0.18% Range -1.00% to +1.00%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: -2.60%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Actual: -990k Prior: +83k
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand Actual: +14953k Prior: +14460k
DOE Distillate Implied Demand Actual: +5472.1 Prior: +5025.4k
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand Actual: +9402.1 Prior: +9188.6k

First the 1 second chart of Crude Oil Future for February...you can see that even after the release there was time to get in at 98.60

and here is the 1 minute chart of the February Crude Oil future...the spike did not hold and after a 100+ pip blast higher is came back down to pre-release price...as the environment was risk off and generally a draw is expected during the winter.

DOE Energy Inventories - mixed across the complex

Today, Wednesday December 14th as markets fell, the numbers for Energy Supply Inventories was released from the DOE (Department of Energy). The release was at 10:30am EST which is 15:30 GMT, the time in London UK during the winter.

Here are the figures:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2500k Average -2208k Range -4000k to -900k
Actual: -1932k Prior: 1336k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates : Median +1000k Average +729k Range -2800k to +1900k
Actual: +480k Prior +2533k

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates : Median +1200k Average +1717k Range 0k to +4000k
Actual: +3824k Prior +5147k

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median 0.00% Average -0.10% Range -1.00% to 0.75%
Actual: -2.60% Prior: +3.10%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +83k Prior -196k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14460 Prior 15106

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual 5025.4 Prior 4868.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9188.6 Prior 9102.6

Here is a 1 minute chart of Crude, this is a spreadbet platform, so might be slightly different from the Futures chart:

DOE Crude Inventories - Crude Oil Futures Spike lower on Build

These figures were released at 10:30 am EST today Wednesday December 7th 2011

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories : Average Estimate -575k Median Estimate -1250k Actual +1336k
Prior +3932k Range of Estimates -2500k to +2500k
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory : Average Estimate +1000k Median Estimate +1150k Actual +2533k
Prior +5526k Range of Estimates -1000k to +2500k
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories : Average Estimate +738k Median Estimate +875k Actual +5147k
Prior +213k Range of Estimates -1000 to 2200k
DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization : Average Estimate 0.7% Median Estimate 0.63% Actual +3.1%
Prior -0.9% Range of Estimates 0.0% to +1.5%
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory -196k actual versus -715k prior
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand 15106 actual versus 14363 prior
DOE Distillate Implied Demand 4868.1 actual versus 4187.6 prior
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand 9102.6 actyak versus 9298.1 prior

Here is the chart from Bloomberg, you can see about a 20 tick move down ahead of the release, sorry no tick chart, just 1 min

Here is another chart from a certain Spreadbet broker, here the move was right at 3:30pm, this is London time for the 10:30am EST release