Thursday, January 19, 2012

DOE Crude Inventories - Big Draw on Crude but modest Build in Gasoline

Today January 19th 2012, we got the DOE numbers on a Thrusday at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT) instead of their normal weekly release on a Wednesday at 10:30 EST, this was because the week was shorter because of the Martin Luther King holiday on monday. Somehow it is always better when the news comes out in its normal time slot instead of coming out just a half hour after the EIA natural gas supply change figure. Today there was a big draw on Crude, just like the Draw on API the night before, but there was only a quick 30-40 tick spike and things then did reverse. Normally such a big draw would have moved the Crude Oil Future alot more, however there was a build on Gasoline, not huge but not tiny either. Also there is alot of headline risk due to developments in the Gulf with Iran and the progression on the global scale of an embargo due to their uranium enrichment program.

Here are the figures:

US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +3000k Average: +1892k Range: -3000k to +3500k
Actual: -3438k Prior: +4958k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: +1375k Average: +1075k Range: -3000k to +2900k
Actual: +438k Prior: +3985k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2350k Average: +2104k Range: -3000k to +4000k
Actual: +3717k Prior: +3610k No Revision

US DOE U.S Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: +0.6% Range: -2.75% to +1.00%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -832k Prior: -191k No Revision

Us DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14482 Prior: 15043 No Revision

US DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4631.4 Prior: 4350.7 No Revision

US DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8622.4 Prior: 8701.9 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract for March 2011:

Also included are the same 3 minute charts of Exxon and Chesapeake but with a green arrow to show when the DOE numbers hit the wire:

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