Market has been near the tops since the US CPI numbers, then at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index came out. This number has rebounded from the horrible -35 or so print back in august 2011, but now it has gained ground back above 10. The risk-on theme continued and about 5 minutes before the news there was a rumor that came thru talking-forex.com that the number would print higher. This geared market expectations and then when it came out lower probably trapped some longs. Here are the figures:
US Philadelphia Fed
Estimates- Median: 10.3 Average: 10.5 Range: 7.0 to 16.8
Actual: 7.3 Prior: 10.3 No Revision
Here is a 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P500 future which shows how it moved down after the -3 dev. This is normally not a big enough deviation from the expected figure to trade on.
Here is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY, notice the spike into the release on that rumor. Then came down. Of course it was only a small lower deviation and the rest of the news has been good and a risk-on day, so after awhile cadjpy found some bids and rallied past those highs again.
Finally the USDJPY went sidewise for a half hour but then found some bids and rallied significantly for this pair:
Thursday, January 19, 2012
US Philly Fed - Rumor of higher print but then lower print
Labels:
CADJPY,
Emini,
Philly Fed,
USA,
USDJPY
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