Thursday, January 05, 2012

UK Services PMI - Good sized deviation reverses after quick blip in risk-off market

The 3rd PMI figures in the series after Construction and Manufacturing and the largest sector of the UK economy. The past 3 months have been the same with this number with a move occurring before the release based on a rumor, or a leak, leading to a quick blip and then reversal. In these cases you can widen out the triggers and tighten one side if there appears to be a rumor lead move into the release time. The market was selling off based on problems with the European Banking sector specifically Italy's Unicredit got haulted limit down and Deutsche Bank was down after a rumor it was raising capital. The fears in the banking sector hit the Forex pairs with the Euro leading the way but the Pound and Aussie following close behind. About a half hour before the release the GBPUSD pair did manage to bounce about 25 pips or so off one of our key support levels of 1.5560 and rally up until 1.5585 as the news came out. It then did a pop of 10 pips and reversed right back down to quickly take out those scalp buyers and hitting 1.5550 which then came back up a bit. A +2.5 deviation on this really should have been enough to make the pound rally a bit more and in the context of risk-off parameters sparking the sell-off it was not so clear if the the sell-off or the bounce was the rumor-based lead-up into the release. Basically this makes 3 months of this and triggers have gone from +/-1.1 to +/-2.5 but this now gets slated to the watch list although 3 months ago these PMI figures were really blockbuster and making some good moves. This still could be down a bit to low volume.

Anyhow here are the figures:

UK PMI Services MoM
Estimates: Median 51.5 Average 51.4 Range 50.0 to 52.2 (51-52 most)
Actual: 54.0 Prior: 52.1 No Revisions

Here are some charts, first is the 10 second chart which shows the intial 10 pip blip and the subsequent scene of the crime as the former 1.5560 lows are tagge and then bounce right back to the former scene of the crime at 1.5580

Next is a 1 minute chart which shows the double bottom off 1.5560 that occurred in the half hour leading into the release and why this 18 minutes of price action was difficult to distinguish as a rumor lead rally into a positive number to sell into as broad-based market risk aversion reaffirmed its grasp on downward price action:

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