Thursday, January 19, 2012

New Zealand CPI - Big Deviation lower leads to sell-off on Kiwi Dollar

This evening at 16:45 EST (21:45 GMT) the quarterly figures for New Zealand Consumer Prices was released. These are basically the inflation figures but unlike many other countries they are only released every 3 months instead of monthly like elsewhere. Because of this there are often quite nice surprises on them as it is more difficult for analysts to get there estimate right when the data is less frequent. Here is the data:

New Zealand Consumer Prices (QoQ)
EStimates- Median: +0.4% Actual: +0.4% Range: 0.0% to +0.7%
Actual: -0.3% Prior: +0.4% No Revision

New Zealand Consumer Prices (YoY)
EStimates- Median: +2.6% Actual: +2.6% Range: +2.2% to +3.0%
Actual: +1.8% Prior: +4.6% No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the NZDUSD:

and here is the 1 minute chart which shows that the NZDUSD did take its time but came down to make new lows hours after the release:

While the past 2 days have been risk-on and this has lead to some US dollar weakening so this could have muted the sell on NZDUSD a bit. Another option was to buy the EURNZD. Here is a 10 second chart of the EURNZD:

Finally a 5 minute chart shows how the move continued thru the rest of the Asian session into the European session:

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