Thursday, January 12, 2012

UK Industrial Production - Sell the Rumor buy the news?

Today Thrusday January 12th at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Industrial Production figures came out from the UK along with the Manufacturing Production numbers. The GBPUSD has sold off since yesterday's slightly weaker trade balance figures, although the lower deviation on these were not enough to cause such a sell off. Yesterday market talk was of US names on the offer on cable. Although the EURUSD did also sell off, and USDCAD did rally a bit too, Aussies losses were quite moderate, but the GBPUSD really did take a beating.

Here the figures:

UK Industrial Production m/m
Estimates: Median -0.1% Average 0.0% Range -0.4% to +0.5%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: -0.7% Revision: -1.0%
UK Industrial Production y/y
Estimates: Median -2.2% Average -2.2% Range -2.5% to -1.7%
Actual: -3.1% Prior: -1.7% Revision: -2.0%
UK Manufacturing Production m/m
Estimates: Median -0.2% Average -0.1% Range -0.4% to +0.2%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: -0.7% Revision: -0.9%
UK Manufacturing Production y/y
Estimates: Median -0.5% Average Range -0.7% to +0.5%
Actual: Prior: +0.3%

It was basically some big names, would perhaps conference called and arranged to assault the Pound into the Industrial Production figures, which analysts estimates were already pretty low. Although there could have been some sort of leak, alot of these big names have the resources to do their own detail research to find this sort of thing out. For example the original Tiger Hedge fund actually sent someone to Brazil to count the number of Coffee bushes growing before they shorted the Coffee Futures...if a Hedge fund can do that then certainly they can get some good intel on uk industrial production.

The deviation was moderately lower, about a -0.6% below expectations, however there was also a revision to the previous month of -0.3%, so altogether that is quite significant. However there was only a 15 pip pop down and it soon retraced.

About 20 minutes late after there was a Spanish Bond Auction which was very successful, then 10 minutes later European Industrial Production which was a lower:

Eurozone Industrial Production nsa m/m (Nov)
Estimates: Median -0.3% Average -0.3% Range -1.0% to +0.7%
Actual: -0.1% Prior -0.1% Revised -0.3%
Eurozone Industrial Production wda Y/Y (Nov)
Estimates: Median +0.2 Average +0.2% Range -0.4% to +1.0%
Actual: -0.3% Prior +1.3% Revised +1.0%

Then 10 minutes after that there was an Italian Bond Auction which like the Spanish was incredible good...yeilds have come down very sharply and bid-to-cover was much lower.

Basically the market forgot about the Industrial Production figures and risky assets rallied accross the board.

Here is the 10 second chart of the GBPUSD :

Here is 10 minute chart that shows the move starting from after yesterday's Trade Balance into today's Industrial Production figures:

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