Scalping the Loonie USDCAD pair - Don't trade in low volume holiday markets?

Many will warn of the dangers of trading when volume gets light and liquidity in the market drains away in the run up to Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter and the August Summer holidays. Well definately it is good to take some time off, recharge the batteries and unplug from the dam computer, eat real home cooked food and enjoy the company of friends and family...but why not make some pips if you are waiting for that turkey to bake or family to arrive or to catch your plane.

If you have some good analysis why not. Holiday markets can take 2 shapes, 1. moves can be exacerbated because some big-pockets can swing things around on the cheap, or 2. things might not move much at all or in tight ranges.

Today was Friday December 23st, how lucky that Christmas is on a weekend this year and the Forex market is open Sunday night December 25 all the way to Friday December 30th because somewhere on the planet they don't have Christmas...joking...lol. Not alot of news out of Europe but North America had Canadian GDP and the USA had a bunch of smaller economic news reports. I showed up and posted a chart of the Fibonacci cluster on the Daily Chart of the USDCAD to my members at SecretFXTrading and followers on twitter.

So the 38% of the late July 26th of 0.9405 to the October 4th high of 1.0667 comes in around 1.0179. Also the 38% of the same October 4th high 1.0667 to the October 28th low of 0.9894 comes in around 1.0184....but gosh that October 4th pin bar was such a beauty!!! Almost every major forex pair had a sharp reversal that day...only Cable the GBPUSD forex pair went lower to 1.5270 on October 6th when the Bank of England raised the 'Asset Purchase Facility' (APF) by 75 Billion to 275B....basically printing more money. More supply of paper, less value, however this was good news cloaked as bad because it will help the Economy, hopefully adding a few points to GDP, which would strengthen the Pound-Dollar...but perhaps it will raise inflation, which is a stealth tax...hmm good or bad or a bit of both....grey area, well you can shout, you can scream, but what offering solutions, we can all click a mouse button and place a trade, don't be too drastic, remember social cohesion, the status quo, don't want to rock the boat too much. Wow I got way off topic! Back the Loonie.

Anyhow the CAD GDP was basically flat, and all day the USDCAD pair bounced off this fib cluster. Generally I take 15-20 pips on either a half or a third of the position and move the stop to breakeven. Sometimes I stack entries and build a position up. There was a possibility that the 1st blue October fib level would break and the yellow july-early october fib would be tested which it nearly did but was front-run by a pip or two. Also notice how when the previous swing high was tagged the loonie would reverse back down into the fib cluster zone again for another go. Well how many times can you make 15-20 pips on half a position? After awhile you have racked up quite a few pips...of course it is easy to get greedy, hold the full position for a further move higher, just to get stopped out, give up your patience and leave the charts to start Christmas celebrations. Anyhow it turned out to be a good day and an extra nice bottle of champagne is in order. Here is the 5 minute chart of the fibonacci cluster zone mentioned above, with a summary of entries and exits, most exits were only half the position and the other half got stopped out, just to reenter...so did pay more spread than needed if the position had some more wiggle room but better safe than sorry, if the stop was 10-20 pips below there may have been a reason to hit it...remember the market wants to do business, even on Christmas.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkkah or Happy Holiday

Magister Pips

Canadian GDP - slightly lower MoM Flat YoY comes with a bunch of US Data

Today December 23rd 2011 the GDP figures from Canada were released and the month-on-month figures was down -0.1 but the yearly figure was as expected. There was also Durable goods, PCE Core, Personal Spending and Income from the USA... market is quiet as Christmas approaches
The Headline Durable goods was up but this economic indicator can be very unpredictable, the core was slightly down as was the Personal Spending and Income

Here the figures:

Canadian GDP MoM
Estimages: Median +0.1%, Average +0.1%, Range -0.1% to +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% No Revision
Canadian GDP YoY
Estimates: Median +2.7%, Average +2.7%, Range +2.6% to +2.9%
Actual: +2.7% Prior: +3.0% No Revision
US Durables ex Transporation
Estimates: Median +0.4%, Average +0.4%, Range -0.5% to +1.5%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +0.7% Revised: +1.5%
US Durable Goods Orders
Estimates: Median +2.2% , Average +2.6%, Range -2.0% to +7.0%
Actual: +3.8% Prior: -0.7% Revised: 0.0%
US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
Estimates: Median +1.0% , Average +1.1%, Range +0.4% to +2.0%
Actual: -1.2% Prior: -1.8% Revised: -0.9%
US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Air
Actual -1.0% Prior: -1.1% Revised: -0.8%
US Personal Income
Estimates: Median +0.2%, Average +0.2% , Range 0.0% to +0.4%
Actual: +0.1% Prior +0.4% No Revisions
US Personal Spending
Estimates: Median +0.3% , Average +0.3% , Range +0.2% to +0.6%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.1% No Revisions
US PCE Deflator (YoY)
Estimates: Median +2.7% , Average +2.7% , Range +2.6% to +3.0%
Actual: +2.5% Prior: +2.7% No Revisions
PCE Core (MoM)
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1%, Range 0.0% to +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.1% No Revisions
PCE Core (YoY)
Estimates: Median +1.7% Average +1.7%, Range +1.6% to +1.8%
Actual: +1.7% Prior:+1.7% No Revisions

Here some charts:

First USDCAD 30 second chart:

and the 30 second chart of CADJPy

the 30 second chart of the USDJPy to see the affect of the US data:

and the EMinis S&P 500 future 1 minute chart:

EIA Natural Gas Inventories - Small build leads to decent down move

This Thrusday December 22nd at 10:30 EST and 15:30 GMT the Natural Gas Storage figures were released by the EAI. Here the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -105 Average -104 Range -112 to -90 (majority -110 to -104)
Actual: -100.0 Prior -102 No Revision

a very small build of +2, and the Natural Gas Future contract NQ moved down 90 ticks, it is a very volatile instrument and while such a small deviation from the median is risky to trade it will often move on any deviation.

Here is the 1 sec chart of the Natural Gas:

and here is the 1 minute chart:

Also included is the 1 minute chart of the stock for Chesapeake, they are a company involved in doing fracking for Natural Gas...it appear there is massive quantities of Natural Gas which is stored in big Shale deposits until the USA and now it can be blasted out of the rock, so in general Natural Gas is cheaper these days...Chesapeake tends to be affected:

US GDP Final for Q3 2011 - lower GDP but Initial Jobless Claims lower which is good

Today at 8:30 EST 13:30 GMT the GDP figures for the USA came out. This is the final reading for the 3rd quarter of 2011 and thus are a bit dated. These came along with the weekly jobless figures which last week broke the critical 400k bull/bear line and printed 366k coming back down to the April lows, which is where things were before fears of a double dip grew during the summer of 2011. There was also personal consumption and pce core, the fed's perfered inflation indicator.

It is rare for there to be such a range of estimates for a final release of GDP but after the Advanced of 2nd reading of Q3 back in November where the figure came out at 2.0% below the 2.5% expected, the range of analysts estimates grew quite wide...wider in fact than last month's estimates which had a 0.9 range this month had a 1.3 range.

The IJC did come in slightly lower this week than last week, not alot but it is positive that it maintained the lower reading from last week into this one. The GDP was -0.2 deviation below the median estimate of all analysts surveyed by bloomberg and the risky assets did sell off. Here the figures:



US GDP QoQ Annualized - Final Q3 2011
Estimates: Median +2.0%, Average +2.0%, Range +1.5% to +2.8% (majority +1.8% to +2.2%)
Actual: +1.8% Prior: +2.0% No Revision


US Personal Consumption
Estimates: Median +2.3% Average +2.2% Range +1.5% to +2.4% (majority +2.2% to +2.4%)
Actual: +1.7% Prior: +2.3% No Revision

US GDP Price Index
Estimates: Median +2.5% Average +2.5% Range +2.0% to +2.5% (majority +2.5)
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.5% No Revision

US Core PCE q/q
Estimates: Median +2.0% Average: +2.0% Range +2.0% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.1% Prior: +2.0% No Revision

US Initial Jobless Claims w/w
Estimates: Median +380k Average: +378k Range +355k to +400k
Actual: +364k Prior: +366k Revised: +368k

US Continuing Claims w/w
EStimates: Median +3600k Average +3602k Range +3560k to +3650k
Actual: +3546k Prior: +3603k Revised: +3625k

Now for some charts...what was interesting is looking at last months reaction to the -0.5 deviation lower from +2.5 expected to the +2.0 of the actual release. Normally there would have been a good move lower on the Japanese Yen crosses but instead we saw broad US Dollar strength on risk aversion. I know it might not make sense that the US Dollar would strengthen on bad data from the USA but when markets get bad data they respond by dumping riskier high yeild assets and buying safe US bonds...it is the largest safest market in the world, but they don't yeild so much. First chart is the Australian Dollar versus US Dollar AUDUSD 10 second chart:

next is the CADJPY, which has a high correlation to stock indices...last month the US GDP was released with Canadian Retail Sales at the same time, which was higher while GDP was lower, so it was not a good pair to trade last month, this month it was good:

Nice to look at the DAX chart, this is the index for the German stock market, but it moves nicely on US news as well. This is the 1 minute chart:

should include the Emini S&P 500 to be complete..1 minute chart:

and finally the USDJPY is included because this was the safest pair to trade on US news, this is because you cannot always be sure that risk-on will mean selling US Dollars and risk-off will be buying US Dollars...sometimes risk-on is selling the Japanese yen and risk-off is buying the yen. if there is good US data it should mean that the US currency should strengthen but because of the risk-on/off dynamic it is not always the case. Because the yen is alot like the US dollar in the case it is sometimes good to trade this pair as you go negative the US dollar on bad data and you go positive the japanese yen on risk aversion. The market right now is more slanted towards buying US dollars on bad news and risk aversion or risk-off than buying japanese yen, this is not always the case as many bad GDP releases in the past this pair has sold off. Here is the chart today which shows this didn't work today...

UK GDP Final Q3 2011 - Surprise +0.6 when all analysts expect +0.5

This Thrusday morning December 22nd 2011 at 9:30 GMT and 4:30 EST the final reading for GDP was released from the United Kingdom.

A small surprise on the Final GDP reading for the 3rd quarter 2011 for the UK. Every analyst surveyed by bloomberg expected the figure to remain flat at 0.5%. So this was positive but it was not enough to lift sentiment in the Pound Dollar forex pair. It is looking like GDP could fall as we go into 2012. There was also some Current Account data released at the same time which was quite a bit lower, this being bad for the Sterling Dollar (GBPUSD) forex pair.

Here are the figures:


UK GDP q/q - Final
Estimates: Median +0.5%, Average 0.5%, Range +0.5% to +0.5%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.5% no revision
UK GDP y/y - Final (
Estimates: +0.5%, Average: +0.5%, Range +0.5% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.5% no revision
UK Current Account
Estimates: Median -6.1B, Average -5.5B, Range -8.4B to -1.0B
Actual: -15.25B Prior: -2.0B Revised: -7.4B
UK Total Business Investment q/q
Estimates: Median -1.4%, Average -1.2%, Range -1.4% to -0.5%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: -1.4% no revision
UK Total Business Investment y/y
Estimates: Median +0.3%, Average +0.5%, Range +0.3% to +1.1%
Actual: +4.3% Prior: +0.3% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the GBPUSD forex pair. There was a tiny 3 pip blip up and it sold off on the bad current account number:

Here is a 1 minute chart of the GBPUSD forex pair, which shows the action leading into the news and how after the intial sell off it did then rally back near the former highs for the european session around 1.5720:

New Zealand GDP - Mixed q/q up but y/y down

This Wednesday evening December 21st 2011 at 21:45 GMT and 16:45 EST the GDP figures from New Zealand were released. This number only comes out quarterly and because of this it often surprises the market. The past 2 quarterly releases have had good moves on NZD forex pairs.

It is nearly Christmas and volumes are getting lighter and lighter since since December 9th. This can either mean exaggerated moves or very small move with little response. Tonight's figures were mixed with the quarterly number higher and the yearly lower with the previous yearly figure also being revised down. Here is the news data:

New Zealand GDP q/q
Estimates: Median +0.6% , Average +0.6, Range +0.3% to +0.9%
Actual: +0.8% Prior: +0.1%

New Zealand GDP q/q
Estimates: Median +2.2% , Average +2.2%, Range +1.6% to +2.5%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: 1.5% Revised: +1.1%

This is a 5 second chart of the NZDUSD forex pair, there was a quick blip up of about 10-15 pips which then reversed. These deviations were not large enough for trading anyhow. With the yearly figure not agreeing with the quarterly figure it was definately not something to trade. The skilled scalper could have faded the initial spike and bought the pre-news move up. but this is risky and not for everyone.

Here is a 5 minute chart of the NZDUSD forex pair which shows what happened during the asian session while europe was asleep. The Kiwi-Dollar ran down but rallied as the European Cash Equities opened at 8am.

DOE Energy Inventories - Huge Drawdown leads to pop higher in risk-off sentiment

This wednesday December 21st at 15:30GMT and 10:30EST the DOE Inventories for Energy products was released. Risk was off since after the ECB announcment of its bond program caused an initial pop higher and it was sold into. There was a huge drawdown and Crude spike up over 100 ticks...this was in the midst off a general risk off environment, so the spike didn't continue like it might in other cases since this was a huge drawdown. Also volume is light because it is nearly Christmas holiday.

Here the figueres:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2125k Average -2438k RAnge -4100k to -1000k
Actual: -10570k Prior: -1932k

DOE US Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median -750k Average -350k Range -2000k to +2000k
Actual: -2353k Prior: +480k

DOE US Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1500k Average +1000k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: -412k Prior: +3824k

DOE US Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.38% Average +0.18% Range -1.00% to +1.00%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: -2.60%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Actual: -990k Prior: +83k
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand Actual: +14953k Prior: +14460k
DOE Distillate Implied Demand Actual: +5472.1 Prior: +5025.4k
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand Actual: +9402.1 Prior: +9188.6k

First the 1 second chart of Crude Oil Future for February...you can see that even after the release there was time to get in at 98.60

and here is the 1 minute chart of the February Crude Oil future...the spike did not hold and after a 100+ pip blast higher is came back down to pre-release price...as the environment was risk off and generally a draw is expected during the winter.

Canadian Retail Sales - Better Print leads to some CAD strength

This figure has not had any big deviation since May, there have been small deviations of +/-0.1 or +/-0.2 which cause quick 10-20 pip blips which quickly reversed.

Today the Risk-Off trade returned after the ECB bond auction which initially caused a move higher on risky assets but was sold into...EURUSD popped from 1.3150 to 1.3200 and then sold off all the
way to 1.3030. This was basically a buy the rumor, sell the news as the bond auction was expected to be good.

Anyhow the USDCAD followed the move down in EURUSD and risky assets by rallying from 1.0200 to 1.0300, which it tagged right before the news. The deviations were moderate and below what we would normally be interested in but as 1.0300 was a key level there was a nice move of about 30-35 pips off this level with the good canadian news. Here the figures:

Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Core)
Estimates: Median +0.2%, Average +0.2%, Range -0.3% to +0.5% (majority:0.2 to 0.3)
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.5% Revised +0.4%
Canadian Retail Sales MoM
Estimates: Median 0.5%, Average +0.5%, Range 0.0% to +0.9% range (majority 0.3-0.7)
Actual: +1.0% Prior: +1.0% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of USDCAD:

and here is the 30 second chart which shows move or the move:

US Housing Starts and Building Permits - higher leads to rally after some time

The Housing Starts and Building Permits data from the USA was released today December 20th 2012
at 8:30am EST, 13:30 GMT. It was higher and although the initial reaction was small it did lead to a rally in all risky assets...AUDUSD, CADJPY, DAX, EMini S&P 500 futures

The market is very thin, no volume due to the approaching Christmas holidays so the reaction might have been a bit exaggerated. However the number was alot higher than the median estimate, and hte largest deviation for awhile.

Here the figures:

US Housing Starts m/m
Estimates: Median 635k , Average 633k, Range 600k to 655k
Actual: 685k Prior: 628k Revised: 627k

US Housing Starts MoM%
Estimates: Median 1.1% , Average 0.8%, Range -4.5% to +4.3%
Actual: +9.3% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -2.9%

US Building Permits m/m
Estimates: Median: 635k , Average 636k, Range 610k to 668k
Actual: 681k Prior: 653k Revised: 644k

US Building Permits MoM%
Estimates: Median: -1.4%, Average -1.3%, Range -5.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +5.7% Prior: +10.9% Revised: +9.3%

Here some charts:
the CADJPY 5 second chart

and the USDJPY 10 second chart, not such a good response here:

the reaction in the EMini S&P 500 Future (this is spreadbet, probably slightly different the CME) 1 minute chart:

and finally a 1 minute chart of the DAX future:

Canadian CPI - Nearly completely flat

The CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) figures for Canada came out this morning at 12 noon GMT, or
7am EST. They were mostly flat with the exception of the Core y/y coming in slightly lower.

Here the figures:

Canadian Core CPI m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% expected, Avg +0.1%, Range -0.3% to +0.3% (most 0.0 to +0.3)
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.3%
Canadian Core CPI y/y
Estimates: Median +2.2% expected, Avg 2.2%, Range +1.8% to +2.4% (most +2.1 to +2.3)
Actual: 2.1% Prior: +2.1%
Canadian CPI m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1%, Average +0.1% prior, Range -0.2% to +0.2% (most 0.0 to +0.2)
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +2.1%
Canadian CPI y/y
Estimages: Median +2.9%, Average +2.9%, Range +2.6% to +3.0% (most +2.8 to +3.0)
Actual: 2.9% Prior: 2.9%

Here is the chart of the USDCAD 5 seconds:

German IFO - Higher but little initial reaction

This morning at 9am GMT or 4am EST the IFO figures were released from Germany

Here the figures:

German IFO Business Climate
Estimates: Media 106.0 expected, Average 106.0 , Range 105.0 to 107.3
Actual: 107.2 Prior: 106.6
German IFO Business Expectations
Estimates: Median 97.0 expected, Average 96.8 , Range 94.6 to 97.5
Actual: 98.4, 97.3 prior
German IFO Current Assessment m/m
Estimates: Median 116.0 expected, Average 116.0, Range 115.2 to 117.0
Actual: 116.7 Prior: 116.7

Here is the chart of the EURUSD 10 seconds:

and the EURUSD 1 minute chart:

A rally in the EURUSD and all the risky assets did start about 45 minutes after the release when the results of the Spanish Bond auction came out positive Click Here

The DAX had a much better initial reaction as seen here on the 1 minute chart (this is a spreadbet chart so might be slightly different than EUREX)

Swedish Interest Rates - Cut 25 bps as expected and SEK strengthens?

This morning at 8:30am GMT or 3:30am EST the Swedish Riksbank announced their interest rate changes.

Out of 24 analysts surveyed by bloomberg, 9 expected the Riksbank to hold steady at 2.00%,
11 expected a 25 basis point (bps) cut to 1.75%, and 2 expected a full 50 bps cut to 1.5%.

Quite similar to the expectations for the NorgeBank last week where only a few expected a
50 bps cut and that is what they did, instead the Riksbank today only cut 25 bps as the
majority of anaylsts expected and was the median & average estimate based on all 24 surveyed.

The EURSEK rallied into the release, indicating Swedish Krona (SEK) weakness, as would be
expected by a lowering of interest rates, but this was basically a buy the rumor sell the news
case for the EURSEK pair (or sell the rumor buy the news for the Swedish Krona as a whole).
As soon as the news was released and it was only a 25 bps as expected the EURSEK turned around
and dropped in SEK strength (it is the 2nd currency of the pair). So the SEK weakness, and
EURSEK rally before the news was on the possibility of a 50 bps cut, which when it did not
materialise promptly unwound.

Here is the chart:

US CPI - Mixed reading leads to some wiggle as US shows up and sells

Today December 16th at 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) the CPI inflation figures for the USA were released.
This one hasn't had anything more than a +/-0.1 deviation in ages and in this environment of economic uncertainty inflation is not going to change the FOMC interest rates.

Here the figures:

US CPI m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range -0.1% to +0.4%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: -0.1%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.1%

US CPI y/y
Estimates: Median +3.5% Average +3.5% Range +3.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +3.5%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y
Estimates: Median +2.1% Average +2.1% Range +2.0% to +2.3%
Actual: +2.2% Prior: +2.1%

Here some charts, first USDJPY 1 minute:

This is the EMini S&P 500, this is a spreadbet chart, so might be slightly different than the actual futures.

Also the CADJPy 1 minute chart since this has a good correlation to the Stock Indices:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print but whipsaw

Liquidity is very thin as Christmas approaches so there was a good deviation today but it just caused a whipsaw. Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -92 Average -90 Range -103 to -61
Actual: -102 Prior: -20

Here is the 1 minute chart from a spreadbet platform, so might be slightly different than the real futures market.

UK Retail Sales - Lower but last months higher figures revised even higher

This morning at 9:30am london time (4:30am EST) the UK Retail Sales figures for November were released. Here the figures:
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.4% Average -0.3% Range -1.0% to +0.8%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +0.9%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.4% to +1.4%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.3% Average -0.3% Range -0.9% to +0.5%
Actual: -0.4% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +1.0%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.4% Average +1.2% Range -0.3% to +1.2%
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

Although lower than expected this month, last month's numbers were higher than expected and this
month they were revised even higher. Retail Sales is usually quite a volitile indicator, 1 month up 1 month down. Here is the 10 second chart of the Price action...leading into the news the GBPUSD rallied from its Daily Central Pivot at 1.5470 and hit the big Century round figure of 1.5500 just before the news and had already bounced 15-20 pip before the data was released.

This is a 1 minute chart which shows all the bars from the 8am European Cash Equity open thru the 9:30 release, and the following hour or 2 after:

So far this week all the markets have been selling off and the US Dollar has strenghtened on this Risk aversion. Cable has held up better than other pairs as it has aquired a bit of a safe-haven status because the pound is outside europe and can print money and adjust interest rates, something Italy and Spain cannot do because they use the Euro. Volumes have been light due to Christmas holidays approaching so moves have exaccerbated. Yesterday rumors of a French downgrade from triple A rating was circulating which did not happen but it could, it was enough to keep things selling off. Rumors have been rampant as Marketmakers take advantage of thin liquidity to get traders on the wrong side. Tuesday had rumors of Iran blocking the straits of hormus which was totally false. Tuesday had merkel cap the size of the ESM and this reversed the oil lead rally and commence the sell-off, then the FOMC made comments that economic uncertainty persists which continued the move down...A small correction in europe on wednesday and then USA open and again continued to sell. So far today in europe up and down.

DOE Energy Inventories - mixed across the complex

Today, Wednesday December 14th as markets fell, the numbers for Energy Supply Inventories was released from the DOE (Department of Energy). The release was at 10:30am EST which is 15:30 GMT, the time in London UK during the winter.

Here are the figures:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2500k Average -2208k Range -4000k to -900k
Actual: -1932k Prior: 1336k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates : Median +1000k Average +729k Range -2800k to +1900k
Actual: +480k Prior +2533k

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates : Median +1200k Average +1717k Range 0k to +4000k
Actual: +3824k Prior +5147k

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median 0.00% Average -0.10% Range -1.00% to 0.75%
Actual: -2.60% Prior: +3.10%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +83k Prior -196k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14460 Prior 15106

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual 5025.4 Prior 4868.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9188.6 Prior 9102.6

Here is a 1 minute chart of Crude, this is a spreadbet platform, so might be slightly different from the Futures chart:

Norwegian Interest Rates - Cut more than expected

Out of the 17 Analysts polled by bloomberg, 5 expected the Norge Bank to hold rates
steady at 2.25%, 2 analysts expected a full 0.5% cut, and the remaining 10 expected
just a 0.25% cut. They cut a full 50 basis points (bps) and the Norwegian Krona
rallied. Here are the 5 second charts of EURNOK and USDNOK:

Also a 1 min chart

UK Claimant Count Change - Lower again but probably leaked

UK Claimant Count Change again lower this month by about 10k, a bit less than last month, and also the Unemployment Rate was 0.1% lower as well.

GBPUSD had rallied from 1.5472 to 1.5525 ahead of the news, in the 1st half hour after the london open on news of a uk clearer on the bid, as soon as that news hit the retail wires the move reversed back to the 1.5500 figure, but glided back up to the highs as the news approached.

On the release there was a 10-15 pip pop and then things sold off gradually down to 1.5480...Risk is still quite off after Merkel comments yesterday limiting the upper range of the ESM and Beranke warning shot which caused a further sell-off

Here the figures:
Claimant Count Rate
Estimates: Median 5.1% Average 5.1% Range 5.0% to 5.2%
Actual: 5.0% Prior: 5.0%

Jobless Claims Change
Estimates: Median +13.7k Average +13.7k Range +3.0k to +20.0k
Actual: +3.0k Prior: +5.3k Revised: +2.5k

ILO Unemployment Rates (3 mths)
Estimates: Median 8.3% Average 8.3% Range 8.2% to 8.4%
Actual: 8.3% Prior: 8.3%

Average Weekly EArnings 3M/YoY
Estimates: Median 2.0% Average 2.0% Range 1.9% to 2.3%
Actual: 2.0% Prior: 2.3%

Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY
Estimates: Median 1.7% Average 1.7% Range 1.4% to 1.8%
Actual: 1.8% Prior: 1.7%

Here is a chart (5 sec):

and also a 1 minute chart to see more about what happened. this move occurred on all the pairs, just general US Dollar strength, basically the UK Clearer probably the news before everyone else and bought ahead of the release, then trappped a bunch of longs afterwards. Thin christmas volumes continue, marketmaker heaven. The News did little to strengthen the pound, market ignored it, except those privy to the leak using it for market making purposes.

FOMC Statement - EURUSD drops on Merkel Comments leading into a FOMC Statements

Below is a chart of the Price Action leading into the FOMC Statement by the Fed on December 13th 2012 at around 19:15 GMT or 14:15 EST. Sometimes they are a few minutes late but this time they
were a few minutes early actually...anything but consistent.

Just under an hour after the New York Cash Equity Open Germany's Merkel made comments about the new ESM upper funding limit...

This is shown by the 1st green circle on the chart. The 2nd green circle shows when the FOMC Statement was given, there was no change in rates or Policy, however the statement did basically
say that the economic situation remained risky, this was enough to push the sell-off further.
Here is a link to the Side-by-side statement from the FOMC compared to the last release on November 2nd...

Here is the 5 minute chart of the EURUSD:

...and here is a 5 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future of the same timeframe with green circles at the same places in time as the first chart (this is a spreadbet platform so prices are similar but might be slightly different in places)

US Retail Sales - Slightly lower but not much movement

Retail Sales from the USA was released today at 8:30am EST or 13:30 GMT

Came out lower but did not see much reaction to price, that is why we
only trader larger deviation on this which we have not seen for awhile now
Anyhow here are the figures:

Advance Retail Sales
Estimates : Median +0.6% Average +0.6% Range +0.2% to +1.1%
Prior: +0.5% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Less Autos
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.1% to +0.8%
Prior: +0.6% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.2% to +0.6%
Prior: +0.7% Actual: +0.2%

Here is the USDJPY chart 30 seconds:

and the CADJPY chart 30 secs as well, this pair mirrors the move of the Stock Indices quite well

Also a spreadbetter's Emini chart 1m, just for the hell of it

German ZEW - Slightly better but still bad

This Tuesday morning at 10am london at 5am EST, the German ZEW data was released along with the ZEW figure for the whole Eurozone. In April of 2010 this figure was +50 and now it is in the -50 area. Very grim...slight improvement today, but still bad...not enough to get a trade on.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
Median Estimate -55.8 Average Estimate -55.4 Range of Estimates -60.0 to -47.0
Prior -55.2 Actual -53.8

German ZEW Current Situation Survey
Median Estimate 31.0 Average Estimate 29.9 Range of Estimates 16.0 to 34.0
Prior 34.2 Actual 26.8

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
Prior -59.1 Actual -54.1

Soon after the release the Zew made some comments Click Here to See
then a Spanish Bond Auction See Here and a Greek Bond Auction Click Here and so the Euro did manage to rally US Bank buying euros

Here are some Charts:
1st the initial reaction in 5 sec

then a 30 sec to show more of the action especially thru those bond auctions