Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Canadian Retail Sales - Better Print leads to some CAD strength

This figure has not had any big deviation since May, there have been small deviations of +/-0.1 or +/-0.2 which cause quick 10-20 pip blips which quickly reversed.

Today the Risk-Off trade returned after the ECB bond auction which initially caused a move higher on risky assets but was sold into...EURUSD popped from 1.3150 to 1.3200 and then sold off all the
way to 1.3030. This was basically a buy the rumor, sell the news as the bond auction was expected to be good.

Anyhow the USDCAD followed the move down in EURUSD and risky assets by rallying from 1.0200 to 1.0300, which it tagged right before the news. The deviations were moderate and below what we would normally be interested in but as 1.0300 was a key level there was a nice move of about 30-35 pips off this level with the good canadian news. Here the figures:

Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Core)
Estimates: Median +0.2%, Average +0.2%, Range -0.3% to +0.5% (majority:0.2 to 0.3)
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.5% Revised +0.4%
Canadian Retail Sales MoM
Estimates: Median 0.5%, Average +0.5%, Range 0.0% to +0.9% range (majority 0.3-0.7)
Actual: +1.0% Prior: +1.0% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of USDCAD:

and here is the 30 second chart which shows move or the move:

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