Wednesday, December 21, 2011

DOE Energy Inventories - Huge Drawdown leads to pop higher in risk-off sentiment

This wednesday December 21st at 15:30GMT and 10:30EST the DOE Inventories for Energy products was released. Risk was off since after the ECB announcment of its bond program caused an initial pop higher and it was sold into. There was a huge drawdown and Crude spike up over 100 ticks...this was in the midst off a general risk off environment, so the spike didn't continue like it might in other cases since this was a huge drawdown. Also volume is light because it is nearly Christmas holiday.

Here the figueres:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2125k Average -2438k RAnge -4100k to -1000k
Actual: -10570k Prior: -1932k

DOE US Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median -750k Average -350k Range -2000k to +2000k
Actual: -2353k Prior: +480k

DOE US Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1500k Average +1000k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: -412k Prior: +3824k

DOE US Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.38% Average +0.18% Range -1.00% to +1.00%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: -2.60%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Actual: -990k Prior: +83k
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand Actual: +14953k Prior: +14460k
DOE Distillate Implied Demand Actual: +5472.1 Prior: +5025.4k
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand Actual: +9402.1 Prior: +9188.6k

First the 1 second chart of Crude Oil Future for February...you can see that even after the release there was time to get in at 98.60

and here is the 1 minute chart of the February Crude Oil future...the spike did not hold and after a 100+ pip blast higher is came back down to pre-release price...as the environment was risk off and generally a draw is expected during the winter.

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