DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Big Build leads to big sell off

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on wednesday april 4th, the energy inventory figures where released from the DOE. There was a big build on crude. After a data filled session with Services PMI figure in Europe, then US ADP and ISM figures. Not to mention yesterday afternoon Fed minutes still driving the markets causing the US dollar to appreciate against all the majors. Finally this Crude Inventory finished off the data for the day. There is alot more data tomorrow as it is the 1st week of the month, generally alot of data come but because of Easter Friday everything has be come out by Thursday, with the exception of NFP which the markets will open up especially for.

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median: +2500k Average: +2027k Low: -1500k High: +3500k
Actial: +9009k Prior: +7102k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
5 Estimates: Median: -500k Average: -123k Low: -1000k High: +1250k
Actial: +19kk Prior: -711k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median: -1400k Average: -941k Low: -2500k High: +1750k
Actial: -1457k Prior: -3537k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Mediian: +0.35% Average: +0.36% Low: 0.00% High: +1.00%
Actial: +1.20% Prior: +2.30% No Revision

DOES Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actial: 729k Prior: 1043k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14536 Prior: 14075

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4553.3 Prior: 4551.6

DOE Gasoline Impled Demand
Actual: 9163.4 Prior: 9090.4


Here is a 15 second chart, after the release there was a few moments to sell at 102.30-40 to catch the inital spike down, but it moved very fast. AFterwards there was a 38% pullback of the spike range which gave a nice renetry and price continued to move down from this 102.25 level for over 100 ticks.

DOE Crude Oil Inventories

Firstly apologies for the lack of post recently. You may have an idea of just how long it takes to maintain a blog like this, taking charts, compiling data. etc. The idea here is to have something more than just a historical chart of last months move on the data...it is to also give a background to what else was going on in the market at the time the data came out. This can give us News Trader insights on why some news worked better or worse at certain times. I will try and keep up better, I also have a few charts waiting to be uploaded.

Other than that times have been exciting as a new strategy shows incredibly positive results and has lead me to a 3rd month of profitable trading.

Anyhow there was quite a decent sized deviation in Crude today but there again was a conflict with the rest of the complex. The large 4500k Build did spike down crude but it was a rather tame spike by past standards and did reverse and then went choppy. It was quite a risk off day with the Australian Dollar leading the move down as expectations are from the RBA to cut rates in response to the slowdown in China.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2550k Average: +2367k Low: 0k High: +3500k
Actual: +7102k Prior: -1162k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -500k Average: -413k Low: -3500k High: +1700k
Actual: -711k Prior: +1763k

DOE U.s. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -1342k Low: -2500k High: +800k
Actual: -3537k Prior:-1214k

DOE Cushing OK Crude Iventory
Actual: +1043k Prior: -176k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14075 Prior: 14216

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4551.6 Prior: 4173.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9090.4 Prior: 8759.4

Here is a 15 second chart of the Active May 2012 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Future Contract. You can see my entry at the low of the spike, looking to take advantage of the conflict across the complex, and although some profit was achieved, it was not substantial and after a near scare, I exited near breakeven with great relief.

US DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Mixed reading but Crude rallies anyhow

Today March 7th 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Department of Energy (DOE) released the Inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline. The numbers were mixed across the complex with Crude and Distillate a draw but Gasoline a build. Also the deviations were not very big.

Crude oil has sold off somewhat from the $110 a barrel highs on the evening of March 1st. Crude was going up mostly in response to the geopolitical tension with Iran in the Gulf, but as most risky assets have sold off recently, so to has Crude pulled back about $5-6 and was come down to test the $105 key handle, dipping below it as far at $104.36 in typical crude fashion. It has a was of getting quite volitile and pushing thru key support or resistance zones and then snapping back even quicker. It appears the market was just waiting for this number to be released, as despite the figures Crude started to rally anyhow. The Yen crosses had started to rally about before the market open, and half an hour after this release the US Dollar index started to move off its key level highs of 80.00 which accelerated the move in Crude to the upside.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +840k Low Estimate: -3500k High Estimate: +3000k
Actual: +832k Prior: +4160k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1650k Average: -1345k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: +1000k
Actual: -1944k Prior: -2069k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1600k Average: -1600k Low Estimate: -2500k High Estimate: -500k
Actual: -396k Prior: -1600k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.06% Low Estimate: -0.75% High Estimate: +0.50%
Actual: +0.30% Prior: -1.90% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +2365k Prior: +1648k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14399 Prior: +14407 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4668.7 Prior: +4796.6 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8878.1 Prior: +8979.4 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the Crude Oil Future

Also some Energy Stocks. The smaller ones seem to react better than the big ones like EXXon or BP, I guess since these larger ones have their fingers in lots of pies. Both Devon and Chesapeake followed Crude pretty well, but Cabot took was whippy at first and took longer to resolve upward with the general trend in Energy.

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Mixed Deviations

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 16:00 GMT (11:00 EST) the weekly Department of Energy's Inventory figures were released.. This is normally reported weekly on Wednesdays at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) but because Monday was a holiday in the USA because of Presidents day it get moved to Thursday a half hour later because the EIA Natural Gas is normally reported at 10:30. Normally when there is so much energy supply data coming out within 30 minutes it is more risky than usual. Anyway today did not have very big deviations and they were mixed with Crude and Distillates reporting a build but a draw in Gasoline.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1350k Average: +760k Range: -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +1633k Prior: -171k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -785k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -208k Prior: -2867k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +250k Average: +35k Range: -1500k to +1900k
Actual: -649k Prior: +400k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.23% Range: -1.00% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.5% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -315k Prior: +1990k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14675 Prior: +14599

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4447.7 Prior: +4934.6

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +9244.1 Prior: +8723.4 No Revision

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Deviations agree across the complex

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision
This Wednesday afternoon at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly Energy Inventory numbers were released from the DOE. This time all off the 3 main items: Crude, Gasoline and Distillates were all lower - a draw. This normal is bullish but the deviations from the median expectation was not very big. Crude just whipsawed...it was a risk off day as more delays in Greece threatened the next Greek bailout and PSI bond haircut deal. This print gave a short break from the risk off flows which then came back around 13:00 EST / 18:00 GMT

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision


Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front-month Crude Oil Future:

Also included are some Energy stocks: Devon DVN Cabot COB Chesapeak CHK Exxon XOM and BP
as the 1 minute chart shows some followed the deviation and other did not...a few frontrun the data by a couple of minutes:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Draw on Crude, Build on Rest

This afternoon of Wednesday February 8th 2012, the DOE inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline were released. Last week there was a great news trading profit when the figures on all 3 lined up in agreement. This week there was conflicts. Crude came out with a bullish draw, or lower deviation, but Distillates and Gasoline deviated higher for a Build, which is normally bearish.

Here is the data:
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Median: +2500k Average: +2560k Range: +2000k to +4200k
Actual: +304k Prior: +4175k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Median: -875k Average: -700k Range: -2000k to +800k
Actual: +1174k Prior: -135k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Median: +875k Average: +290k Range: -2000k to +1700k
Actual: +1629k Prior: +3017k No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +367k Prior: +1476k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14133 Prior: +14004

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4432.3 Prior: +4732.3

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8664.6 Prior: +8593.0

Crude initially followed the bullish draw on its own deviation and blipped up a bit but was reversed by the Bearish Build in the Gasoline and Distillates. Here is a 1 minute chart of the Crude oil future from a spreadbet:

Also included are some 1 minute chart of Energy Stocks, just to show how they moved after the news.

Devon - DVN

Cabot - COB

Chesapeake - CHK

Exxon - XOM

and finally BP

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Build across the complex

The Crude and Natural Gas Futures prices have not been reacting so well to the news recently, but alot of the deviations have had conflicts on the DOE numbers and Natural Gas is reacting to a warm winter. Today, Wednesday 1st February 2012 at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT), there was a build on all 3 of the main DOE numbers for Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline. There was a decent sized spike on Crude although the deviation on just that number was not very big, but because of the agreement accross the complex it had a good enough sized spike, a retracement which set it up nicely for an afterspike trade to get in short for a further move down.

Here are the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2600k Average: +2408k Range: -1900k to +4900k
Actual: +4175k Prior +3558k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1375k Average: -1275k Range: -3000k to +1500k
Actual: -135k Prior +2456k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +500k Average: +358k Range: -3000k to +2500k
Actual: +3017k Prior: +390k No Revisions

DOE Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.20% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: -0.40% Prior: -1.50% No Revisions

DOE Cushing OK Inventory
Actual: +1476k Prior: +374k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14004 Prior: +14067

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4732.3 Prior: +4881.9

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8593.0 Prior: 8724.0

First here is the 1 minute chart of Crude Oil March 2011 Futures Contract. The Red arrow is when the data was released, the blue line shows the afterspike entry:

Next is a 3 minute chart, this shows how after hitting new lows the Crude oil future chopped mostly sidewise to up, retracing a bit, until about 2 hours after the release when it sold off again to make new lows for the day:

All this is in the context of this 4 hour chart which shows how Crude Oil has been bouncing off a new downtrend line since the bullish Iranian news dominated earlier in January and has now faded from trader's minds for now:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Conflicts across the complex follow API numbers last night

Today January 25th at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the Inventory figures from the U.S. Department of Energy were released. These follow from last night API figures were a big build on Crude came along with draws on Distillates and Gasoline. While there was little reaction to API last night, as it comes out quite late in the day, today's DOE figures did have a nice reaction. Crude Oil is the best to follow but Heating Oil and RBob Gasoline also will move on these figures. Heating Oil is best matched to Distillates and Gasoline to Gasoline of course. However the complex will move in sympathy to deviations accross the complex. Here the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1450k Average: +654k Range: -2100k to +3700k
Actual: +3558k Prior: -3438k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -125k Average: -142k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -2456k Prior: +438k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2000k Average: +1583k Range: -1000k to +2500k
Actual: -390k Prior: +3717k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.6% Average: -0.4% Range: -1.25% to +1.00%
Actual: -1.50% Prior: -1.90% No Revision

DOE U.S. Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +374k Prior: -832k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14067 Prior: 14482 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4881.9 Prior: 4631.4 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8724.0 Prior: 8622.4 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future. Despite the draw it rallied:

of course part of this was the fact that Crude had sold off heading into the news, here is the 5 minute chart of Crude heading into the release:

Also included a 2 minute chart of Chesapeake and a 1 minute chart of Exxon:

DOE Crude Inventories - Big Draw on Crude but modest Build in Gasoline

Today January 19th 2012, we got the DOE numbers on a Thrusday at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT) instead of their normal weekly release on a Wednesday at 10:30 EST, this was because the week was shorter because of the Martin Luther King holiday on monday. Somehow it is always better when the news comes out in its normal time slot instead of coming out just a half hour after the EIA natural gas supply change figure. Today there was a big draw on Crude, just like the Draw on API the night before, but there was only a quick 30-40 tick spike and things then did reverse. Normally such a big draw would have moved the Crude Oil Future alot more, however there was a build on Gasoline, not huge but not tiny either. Also there is alot of headline risk due to developments in the Gulf with Iran and the progression on the global scale of an embargo due to their uranium enrichment program.

Here are the figures:

US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +3000k Average: +1892k Range: -3000k to +3500k
Actual: -3438k Prior: +4958k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: +1375k Average: +1075k Range: -3000k to +2900k
Actual: +438k Prior: +3985k No Revision

US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2350k Average: +2104k Range: -3000k to +4000k
Actual: +3717k Prior: +3610k No Revision

US DOE U.S Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: +0.6% Range: -2.75% to +1.00%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -832k Prior: -191k No Revision

Us DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14482 Prior: 15043 No Revision

US DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4631.4 Prior: 4350.7 No Revision

US DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8622.4 Prior: 8701.9 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future Contract for March 2011:

Also included are the same 3 minute charts of Exxon and Chesapeake but with a green arrow to show when the DOE numbers hit the wire:

DOE Energy Inventories - Big Build but moderate downward spike with Iran-Gulf bullish fundamentals

Today wednesday Jan 11th at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Department of Energy's Inventories for Crude and other Energy commodities was released. There was quite a decent build of nearly 4000k however the resulting spike down on the oversupply of Crude was rather modest considering how large this build was. In the past builds of 2500k would have caused at least 100 ticks or $1 move lower on the active Crude Futures contract.

Much of this could be do to the continuing situation in the Gulf with Iran. The US and Europe are working to impose sanctions on Iran because of their Uranium Enrichment program. The governments of these countries were going to start blocking the bank acccounts of companies that do business transactions with Iran. So far China, Russia and north korea and perhaps a few others still get oil from Iran but this has reduced their customers. So Iran has been saying they are going to do military training in the gulf and they might actually block the Straight of Hormuz and cut off the oil supply from the rest of the Gulf states to the world. Goverments have agreed to release oil reserve stock piles if this happens. All of this has push the Black stuff higher, so a bearish print on this number was only an opportunity to buy into the uptrend, and soon later the Crude oil future was higher.

A few minutes before the release Russia announced it opposes oil sanctions against Iran, even if Tehran continues enriching Uranium.

Here the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventory
Estimates: Median 1000k Average 854k Range -2750k to +3000k
Actual: +4958k Prior: +2209k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates: Median +2250k Average +2142k Range +500k to +4500k
Actual: +3985k Prior: +3224k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventory
Estimates: Median +2250k Average +2100k Range 0k to +3800k
Actual: +3610k Prior: +2479k No Revisions
DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.5% Average +0.3% Range -0.5% to 1.00%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.8% No Revisions
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -1991k Prior: -613k No Revisions
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 15043 Prior: 14559 No Revisions
DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4350.7 Prior: 4600.4 No Revisions
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8701.9 Prior: 9078.6

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Crude Oil Future for Feb 2012 delivery:

and here a chart of the stock EXXON at the same time, interestingly it did not bounce like the Crude Oil Future did and continued down further. Other energy stocks like Cheasapeake and Devon energy also had an initial spike down but quite muted and were quick to rebound even before the future did. Correlations often shift depending on all those other things involved in stocks like p/e ratios, dividends, whether the CEO is buying or selling....etc

DOE Energy Inventories - Decent Build leads to muted sell-off

Crude has been strong since the situation in Iran threatening to block the Straits of Hormuz as International Sanctions start to bite....today's build was bearish but the sell-off only moved down the February 2012 Crude Future Contract price down about 60 ticks before it found bids again.

Here the figures:
11:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -1000k Average -754k Range -4000k to +2500k
Actual: +2209k Prior: +3899k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median +1000k Average +488k Range -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +3224k Prior: +1205k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1000k Average +965k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: +2479k Prior: -692k No Revisions

11:00 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median 0.50% Average: +0.41% Range: -0.2% to +1.00%
Actual: +0.80% Prior: -0.70% No Revisions

11:00 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -613k Prior: -289k No Revisions

11:00 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14559 Prior: +14279 No Revisions

11:00 DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4600.4 Prior: +4875.9 No Revisions

11:00 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9078.6 Prior: +9446.3 No Revisions

Here is a 1 minute chart of the price action

DOE Energy Inventories - Huge Drawdown leads to pop higher in risk-off sentiment

This wednesday December 21st at 15:30GMT and 10:30EST the DOE Inventories for Energy products was released. Risk was off since after the ECB announcment of its bond program caused an initial pop higher and it was sold into. There was a huge drawdown and Crude spike up over 100 ticks...this was in the midst off a general risk off environment, so the spike didn't continue like it might in other cases since this was a huge drawdown. Also volume is light because it is nearly Christmas holiday.

Here the figueres:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2125k Average -2438k RAnge -4100k to -1000k
Actual: -10570k Prior: -1932k

DOE US Distillate Inventories
Estimates: Median -750k Average -350k Range -2000k to +2000k
Actual: -2353k Prior: +480k

DOE US Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median +1500k Average +1000k Range -2000k to +3000k
Actual: -412k Prior: +3824k

DOE US Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median +0.38% Average +0.18% Range -1.00% to +1.00%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: -2.60%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Actual: -990k Prior: +83k
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand Actual: +14953k Prior: +14460k
DOE Distillate Implied Demand Actual: +5472.1 Prior: +5025.4k
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand Actual: +9402.1 Prior: +9188.6k

First the 1 second chart of Crude Oil Future for February...you can see that even after the release there was time to get in at 98.60

and here is the 1 minute chart of the February Crude Oil future...the spike did not hold and after a 100+ pip blast higher is came back down to pre-release price...as the environment was risk off and generally a draw is expected during the winter.

DOE Energy Inventories - mixed across the complex

Today, Wednesday December 14th as markets fell, the numbers for Energy Supply Inventories was released from the DOE (Department of Energy). The release was at 10:30am EST which is 15:30 GMT, the time in London UK during the winter.

Here are the figures:

DOE US Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median -2500k Average -2208k Range -4000k to -900k
Actual: -1932k Prior: 1336k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates : Median +1000k Average +729k Range -2800k to +1900k
Actual: +480k Prior +2533k

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates : Median +1200k Average +1717k Range 0k to +4000k
Actual: +3824k Prior +5147k

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Median 0.00% Average -0.10% Range -1.00% to 0.75%
Actual: -2.60% Prior: +3.10%

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +83k Prior -196k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14460 Prior 15106

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual 5025.4 Prior 4868.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9188.6 Prior 9102.6

Here is a 1 minute chart of Crude, this is a spreadbet platform, so might be slightly different from the Futures chart:

DOE Crude Inventories - Crude Oil Futures Spike lower on Build

These figures were released at 10:30 am EST today Wednesday December 7th 2011

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories : Average Estimate -575k Median Estimate -1250k Actual +1336k
Prior +3932k Range of Estimates -2500k to +2500k
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory : Average Estimate +1000k Median Estimate +1150k Actual +2533k
Prior +5526k Range of Estimates -1000k to +2500k
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories : Average Estimate +738k Median Estimate +875k Actual +5147k
Prior +213k Range of Estimates -1000 to 2200k
DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization : Average Estimate 0.7% Median Estimate 0.63% Actual +3.1%
Prior -0.9% Range of Estimates 0.0% to +1.5%
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory -196k actual versus -715k prior
DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand 15106 actual versus 14363 prior
DOE Distillate Implied Demand 4868.1 actual versus 4187.6 prior
DOE Gasoline Implied Demand 9102.6 actyak versus 9298.1 prior

Here is the chart from Bloomberg, you can see about a 20 tick move down ahead of the release, sorry no tick chart, just 1 min

Here is another chart from a certain Spreadbet broker, here the move was right at 3:30pm, this is London time for the 10:30am EST release

DOE Crude Inventories - Modest Deviation causes some volatility

Another release of the DOE Petroleum Inventory this Wednesday Dec. 1st 2010 at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST). Last night's API Inventories did not have much of a deviation and the Crude Future did not move much. Here were the figures last night and set the context for the more important DOE figures this Wednesday afternoon:

API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -1.14M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +1.07M V 0KE; DISTILLATE: +225K V -1ME; UTILIZATION: 81.9% V 85.8%E - Cushing crude inventory: +600KK to 33.9M barrels

Here are the figures for the DOE Inventory figures, which did have a bit more of a deviation, at least for Crude which is the main number to base at trade in the most liquid energy market, the Crude Oil Future Contract:

DOE CRUDE: +1.06M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +560K V 0ME (FLAT); DISTILLATE: -195K V -1ME; UTILIZATION: 82.6% V 85.8%E- Distillate demand -135K bpd to 3.67M bpd - Gasoline demand +40K bpd at 8.87M bpd

So Crude Oil came out with a build of about 2,216k which is significant but usually a bit below what would normally trigger a news spike trade entry. The deviations on Distillates were only +906k and Gasoline only +261k, which were small but did deviate in the same direction as the Build in Crude. A Build is bad for prices and the Crude Oil Future did drop, however in an environment of rising risk appetite after good Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment figures, especially after the sell-off which has occurred the past few weeks, Crude could not maintain this sell-off. There were some opportunities to scalp the volatility. An entry at the 78% fibonacci pullback of the initial news spike caused a move back to thee 38% of the same move for about 20 ticks. Also when price took out the swing high which was the pre-release price, there was another opportunity to scalp it back to the 50%, however when pre-release price is hit it is considered evidence that the news is not enough to move the broader news sentiment flow of the market and trader should start to look at getting on the other side of the market

DOE Petroleum Inventories - A Build like API but prices reverse up

On Wednesday as usual at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST) the Department of Energy Inventory figures were released. These follow the less watched API figures from the night before. The numbers had indicated a draw for the past few weeks, which is bullish for Crude, however this week's API figures on Tuesday night was a build, or more supply and is generally bad for prices. This week's DOE Inventory figures also indicated a Build, in all 3 components of the energy complex : Crude, Gasoline and Distillates. Here are the numbers:

DOE CRUDE: +1.03M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +1.9M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -540K V -1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 85.5% V 84.2%E- Distillate demand +25K bpd to 3.8M bpd - Gasoline demand -125K bpd at 8.83M bpd

So basically a +3029 on Crude, a +3163 deviation on Gasoline, and a smaller +959 deviation on Distillates. So all 3 components agreed. Crude Oil shot down some 80 ticks as a positive deviation or build of supply will do to price. Prices then shot back after 10 seconds to the 61% of the initial news spike reaction and started to turn back down, however there was no continuation, prices turned back up and the tight stop used on the afterspike was hit. This can happen from time to time trading these events and this is why it is essential to use tight stops, however it is still a high probability trade and it works alot more often than if fails. So why did it fail? Well Crude has been selling off from Nov. 11th and has come down nearly $8, that is nearly a 9% move, sometimes the market makers do use the news to take profit on existing positions. If you had been short the past 2 weeks and you knew that thanksgiving holiday was the next day and few traders would be around for friday, why not take profit on your short when price spikes down after the news. Then the profit taking builds up steam and everyone rushes to the exits, some momentum traders sense this and also get into long positions to take advantage of the volatility. It doesn't matter, perhaps thru time in the market you become aware of when a situation like this is developing and certainly after your small conservative stop loss is hit, you are free to enter into another trade and promptly make profit again. It is when the trader holds on because they think the market must continue to move short because of the news that they get into trouble, as the market will squeeze those shorts hard and fast. Don't get caught out!

DOE Energy Inventories - big deviation yet not a big move

As usual on Wednesdays at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST) the Department of Energy's Inventory figures were released. These numbers follow the API Petroleum Inventory figures from Tuesday night, which came out with a significant draw. This reported drawdown was at the level which was around where the average analyst's expectations for the DOE's number was, so when the DOE Crude number came out significantly lower today it was quite a shock. Remember lower numbers indicate less supply which translates to higher prices. Usually the focus on this report is on the Crude Number, as the Crude Oil Future is probably the most highly traded instrument in the Energy Complex, but also the Heating Oil and RBOB Gasoline will also move off the Gasoline and Distillates Inventory data as reported on this blog last week. It is really best if all 3 of the figures accross the Energy Complex agree, as if for instance Crude Inventories comes out with a modest build but Distillates has a large draw, the Crude Oil Future might move down quickly in response to its initial build figure, but then rally in sympathy with the draw seen on the Distillates data. Anyway here is the data:

DOE CRUDE: -7.28M V -500KE; GASOLINE: -2.66M V -500KE; DISTILLATE: -1.11M V -2ME; UTILIZATION: 84% V 82.9%E
- Distillate demand -615K bpd to 3.78M bpd
- Gasoline demand -100K bpd at 8.95M bpd

So distillates had a small build but gasoline had a modest draw and Crude had a very big draw. Normally on this kind of deviation one could have expected to see the Crude Oil Future move upwards over 100 ticks, however their has been some risk aversion in the markets and this is perhaps responsible for the only modest move seen on this huge deviation. During Tuesday the markets went into 'risk-off' mode and the Stock Indices, Commodities including Crude Oil sold off hard. The US Dollar gained across the board. However despite this there was a solid move up and a chance to get an entry on a news afterspike trade. Being aware of the larger trend downward on the Crude the move up caused by the news in the end turned out to be a good opportunity to short into this downtrend at an better price.

On the included chart on the top we can see that the Crude Oil Future after providing an excellent spike trading opportunity using the super-fast autoclick trade entry software from Fast Economic News, making roughly a 50 tick move. After this the Crude Oil Future did pullback to the 38% retracement of the initial spike move around 82.15 and again went to test its highs around 82.40 for a potential 25 tick move. Deducting a few ticks for spread and to wait for price action to confirm the 38% bounce there was at least a potential for 10-15 ticks easily, possibly 20 if you are quick and nimble. Price came back down after retesting and slightly breaking the initial news spike reaction highs by a few ticks and poked below the same 38% and then made a greenbar. This may have started to look like another entry off the same 38%, but after a fib has worked once, the chances of it working again decrease, but if an entry doesn't work just use tight stops, they quickest way to make up for a loss is to get out and look for other trades, the wrong thing to do is sit there and hope....in the fast moving Crude Oil market, especially after news a trader does not want to get in a situation like that. Crude can move fast and giving a trade a few more minutes to turn around and come back to breakeven is risky. A few minutes later price reacted around the 61-78% levels around $82, and a potential scalp entry long. There are 2 potential exits, the first around 82.20 would be preferred - Make your money and get out. However some may have been more patient and held on thru 2-3 minutes of slight pullback and consolidation and rode out the long for another 15 ticks or so. As long as the stop loss is brought to breakeven as soon as possible then a trader can relax and just let price action run its course.....look at the last chart as the news became history and the trend down in crude reasserted itself.

DOE Petroleum Inventories - a draw moves energies up

Every wednesday, unless there is a holiday, the Department of Energy (DOE) releases its Petroleum Inventory numbers. The numbers include numbers for a few types of energy products including Crude Oil, Distillates and Gasoline. There is also an Refinery Utilization figure which comes out. All 3 of the main components of the energy complex came out with a draw down, this follows the draw seen on the API Petroleum figures given yesterday a half hour after the New York stock market close. It was not such a large draw as the API, but this report is more important, especially when all the components accross the complex come out in the same direction. This time Crude had the biggest draw, at -4.27 million, followed by distillates at -2.97 Mil and Gasoline coming in at -0.9 Mil below the average estimate of all analysts. Generally anything over 2-3 million is sufficient, depending on market dynamics and variations across the complex.

*DOE CRUDE: -3.27M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -1.9M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -4.97M V -2ME; UTILIZATION: 82.4% V 82.1%E
- Distillate demand +290K bpd to 4.39M bpd
- Gasoline demand +40K bpd at 9.06M bpd

The front-month Crude Oil Future initially jumped about 35-40 ticks in the first few seconds of the release, this is actually quite a tame move as a deviation of over 4 million can move Crude over 100 ticks. Amazing a news spike trade using the autoclick got a fill in the market at 86.71 and knowing the extreme volatility of this report it is sometimes best to take profit when a decent amount is seen, it is also good to have some sort of automated script to take profit and move up the stop loss for the trader, especially in these fast moving markets seen after highly anticipated news releases. There then extended a further 15 ticks above the $87 level before retracing back to the 61% of the initial spike. There was some technical difficulty with the price feed after the release, but looking at this the trader will notice that there were in fact 2 tests of this 61% level, with the 2nd test going a bit lower than the first. This may have scared some traders out and it shows the importance of sticking to the original stop loss as sometimes just as we think we know the market will do something it then turns around and does the opposite of what we thought it looked like it was going to do.....does that make sense? Hmmm perhaps the market price moves are trying to make themselves look like they are about to do something so it gets us traders involved with them...the basic function of markets...but this is going on a tangent. Eventually price reached the 161% extension of the initial spike move, there was however a another pullback along the way. Normally this news can be very volatile so as soon as a trader is up 10-15 ticks they should look to take partial profits and/or at least move their stop loss to breakeven. However how many of these afterspikes are showing these perfect 50-78% pullback and then retesting highs or even going for the further fix extensions? Seems like many right now....certainly the going is sweet for forex news afterspike trading.

Also included are 2 other charts: Heating Oil Futures and RBOB Unleaded Gasoline Futures. Heating Oil is a distillate and RBOB is Gasoline...you will notice that the spike on RBOB Unleaded Gasoline was smaller than Crude and Heating Oil, and it makes sense since the draw on Gasoline was smaller than the draw down seen on Crude or Distillates.