Wednesday, February 15, 2012

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Deviations agree across the complex

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision
This Wednesday afternoon at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly Energy Inventory numbers were released from the DOE. This time all off the 3 main items: Crude, Gasoline and Distillates were all lower - a draw. This normal is bullish but the deviations from the median expectation was not very big. Crude just whipsawed...it was a risk off day as more delays in Greece threatened the next Greek bailout and PSI bond haircut deal. This print gave a short break from the risk off flows which then came back around 13:00 EST / 18:00 GMT

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision


Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front-month Crude Oil Future:

Also included are some Energy stocks: Devon DVN Cabot COB Chesapeak CHK Exxon XOM and BP
as the 1 minute chart shows some followed the deviation and other did not...a few frontrun the data by a couple of minutes:




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