Wednesday, February 01, 2012

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Build across the complex

The Crude and Natural Gas Futures prices have not been reacting so well to the news recently, but alot of the deviations have had conflicts on the DOE numbers and Natural Gas is reacting to a warm winter. Today, Wednesday 1st February 2012 at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT), there was a build on all 3 of the main DOE numbers for Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline. There was a decent sized spike on Crude although the deviation on just that number was not very big, but because of the agreement accross the complex it had a good enough sized spike, a retracement which set it up nicely for an afterspike trade to get in short for a further move down.

Here are the figures:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2600k Average: +2408k Range: -1900k to +4900k
Actual: +4175k Prior +3558k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1375k Average: -1275k Range: -3000k to +1500k
Actual: -135k Prior +2456k No Revisions

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +500k Average: +358k Range: -3000k to +2500k
Actual: +3017k Prior: +390k No Revisions

DOE Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: 0.00% Average: -0.20% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: -0.40% Prior: -1.50% No Revisions

DOE Cushing OK Inventory
Actual: +1476k Prior: +374k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14004 Prior: +14067

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4732.3 Prior: +4881.9

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8593.0 Prior: 8724.0

First here is the 1 minute chart of Crude Oil March 2011 Futures Contract. The Red arrow is when the data was released, the blue line shows the afterspike entry:

Next is a 3 minute chart, this shows how after hitting new lows the Crude oil future chopped mostly sidewise to up, retracing a bit, until about 2 hours after the release when it sold off again to make new lows for the day:

All this is in the context of this 4 hour chart which shows how Crude Oil has been bouncing off a new downtrend line since the bullish Iranian news dominated earlier in January and has now faded from trader's minds for now:

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