Saturday, January 22, 2011

Canadian Retail Sales After-spike Scalping with the FX Futures Contract

This past Friday January 21st 2011, the Retail Sales figures out of Canada were release, these were generally expected to be higher after the Bank of Canada said in there last that household spending had unexpectedly increase, this was opposed to their statement in October which was that it was likely to reduce. Here are the figures:

CANADA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.3% V 0.5%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: 1.0% V 0.5%E
- Prior Retail Sales MoM revised higher from 0.8% to 1.0%

A good deviation on the headline number, but really was looking for more of a deviation on the Core figure on this one. Spike traders were focusing on the Core number primarily for a spike trade, however both did numbers did come out higher than expected, so it was a good reason to buy Canadian Dollars, and there was actually alot more pips to be made on the follow thru.

The attached chart show the 2 trades taken, remember the Canadian Dollar Futures moves opposite to the direction of the USDCAD forex pair, so basically you are trading CADUSD. This chart is a good example of what can happen with economic news trading, sometimes the 1st pullback doesn't give you the continuation, so either you are patient or take some profit when you see the trade rolling back over. You can always reenter a trade so I perfer to do this rather than wait for it go back in the profitable direction.