Norway Retail Sales - Yesterday Sweden today Norway...wow for Scandinavian Data!!!

Another whopper news trading spike this time coming from Norway. This Friday morning at 9:00 GMT (4:00 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released. There was a decent sized deviation, and while larger deviations in the past have had more modest moves and reversed, this one did continue for quite awhile. Perhaps it is because the EURNOK forex pair is off its extreme lows and has retraced giving the Norwegian Krona room to appreciate versus the Euro.

Anyway here is the data:

Norway Retail Sales - vol sa (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: -0.1% Low: -1.0% High: +0.6%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: +0.9% No Revision

Norway Retail Sales Vol. nsa. (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +2.7% Average: +3.0% Low: +1.8% High: +4.8%
Actual: +7.4% Prior: +6.7% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURNOK forex pair:

This 1 minute chart shows how the move continued for some time and gave many pullbacks which were easy opportunities to scalp additional shorts in the direction of the momentum flow caused by the news.

Swedish Retail Sales - Much better print lead to steep decline in EURSEK forex pair

This morning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released from Sweden. They cam in alot higher than expecting and surprised the market. This lead to a very nice appreciation in the Swedish Krona forex pair. Due to the fact that none of the popular forex news sites seem to have data from the Norway and Swedish Krona pairs, despite the fact that there is very good reactions to news announcements from these countries, we find it necessary to record these moves whenever we can. Although we admit, sometimes we are so busy we cannot always keep up with the blog. There is just so much news, and our technical trading systems churn out their own pips and keep us plenty occupied. Anyway enough ranting. As for the environment, a pretty general trading day, more talk about China, apparently a rumor of a RRR giving a bit of positive risk sentiment to the market lifting the majors although they did dip overnight, especially the AUDUSD, the pair most vulnerable to the China slowdown theme.

Here is the Swedish Data:

Sweden Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Low: -0.2% High: +0.4%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +0.1% Revised: +0.2%

Sweden Retail Sales n.s.a. (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +1.6% Average: +1.9% Low: +1.2% High: +3.0%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +1.5% Revised: +1.6%

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURSEK forex pair:

UK Retail Sales - Much Higher good spike higher into resistance

This morning of February 17th at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the monthly Retail Sales figures were released from the UK. They were much higher than expected by a good amount and there was a nice rally.

Here is the data:


UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.3% Average: -0.4% Range: -0.9% to 0.0%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates- Median: -0.1% Average: 0.0% Range: -0.6% to +0.6%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +1.7% Revised: +1.4%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.3% Average: -0.3% Range: -0.9% to +1.1%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: 0.0% to +1.9%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +2.6% Revised: +2.5%

Canadian Retail Sales - Slightly better but also slight revision down

Today January 24th 2012 the Retail Sales figures were released from Canada. Both the main Headline figure and the Core Less Autos figure came out with +0.1 deviations above the median estimate, however there were also revisions to last month's figure of -0.1. The USDCAD forex pair had been trending up into the news. The news hit and the pair wiggled a bit but then made a slightly higher high, coming up into the R1 Daily Pivot (based on London Midnight Close)...this is one of those instances where you can actually fade the move after news. This was because there was a move up before the news likely driven by expectations of a weak number, but also because there was a general pullback in risk-appetite thru the european mid-day and early new york session, which saw the US Dollar gain. When the numbers came out mostly flat and USDCAD moved into the technical resistance zone it was a good probability trade to fade the news move.

Here are the figures:

Canada Retail Sales MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.3% to +0.8%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +1.0% Revised: +0.9%

Canada Retail Sales Less Autos MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.1% to +1.0%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +0.7% Revised: +0.6%

Here is the first chart which shows the 30 second chart of the USDCAD, showing the little wiggle and then slightly new higher high into the 1.0140 zone of resistance.

Next is the 5 minute chart which shows the fade trade called live in the room a few minutes after the news was released and R1 was hit:

UK Retail Sales - Mixed with lower revisions to previous month

This morning at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Retail Sales numbers for the UK were released. The expectations were up from last month and it is reporting for the Christmas period which is to be expected. The figures were mixed with the Ex Auto Fuel MoM 0.1 lower but the w/AutoFuel YoY coming in +0.2m, there were however some big downward revisions to the previous month, and the GBPUSD forex pair did sell off, which continued the trend since the 8:00 GMT (2:00 EST) European Cash Equity Open, when GBPUSD hit the big mid-century level of 1.5500 and sold off. This 5 minute chart shows this, but also shows the bounce after the news into the US open:

Note this is the high from Tuesday last week, before the pair got sold off on a rumor of a bad Industrial Production figure released on thrusday and followed the EURUSD down on Friday the 13th on the Ratings Downgrades by Standard & Poor's. Here is a 1 hour chart showing this:

Here are the figures:
UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.7% Average: +0.6% Range: +0.2% to +1.3%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: -0.7% Revised: -0.8%

UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.6% Average: +0.6% Range: 0.0% to +1.0%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: -0.4% Revised: -0.5%

UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.7% Average: +1.7% Range: +1.2% to +2.3%
Actual: +1.7% Prior: +0.5% Revised: 0.0%

UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +1.8% to +3.5%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +0.7% Revised: +0.4%

and here is the 10 second chart of the Pound STerling versus US Dollar forex trading pair, GBPUSD:

Higher Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production leads to Broad Rally in markets

Overnight at 2am GMT (9pm EST Jan 16th 2012) a bunch of figures were expected from China. There has been some worries that China would start to contract and this would not a good development with a debt crisis in Europe. About 10 or 11 minutes before the release the Xinhua news agency released the GDP data before it came out over the wire. There were also Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers, all of which came out as expected or higher. This has at least for now pushed away fears of a contraction in China although the GDP is lower for the 10% it was in 2010 and approx. 9.5% area thru most of 2011.

Here are the figures:


China Industrial Production YTD YoY
Estimates: Median +13.8% Average +13.8% Range +13.8% to +13.9%
Actual: +13.9% Prior: +14.0% No Revisions

China Industrial Production (YoY)
Estimates: Median +12.3% Average +12.4% Range +11.8% to +13.6%
Actual: +12.8% Prior: +12.4% No Revisions

China Real GDP YTD (YoY)
Estimates: Median +9.2% Average +9.2% Range +8.9% to +9.4%
Actual: +9.2% Prior: +9.4% No Revisions

China Real GDP (QoQ)
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +2.3% No Revisions

China Real GDP (YoY)
Estimates: Median +8.7% Average +8.8% Range +8.5% to +10.2%
Actual: +8.9% Prior: +9.1% No Revisions

China Retail Sales YTD YoY

Estimates: Median +17.0% Average +17.0% Range +17.0% to +17.1%
Actual: +17.1% Prior: +17.0% No Revisions

China Retail Sales (YoY)

Estimates: Median +17.2% Average +17.3% Range +16.2% to +17.1%
Actual: +17.1% Prior: +17.0% No Revisions

China Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rual YTD YoY

Estimates: Median +24.1% Average +24.0% Range +24.4% to +24.4%
Actual: +23.8% Prior: +24.5% No Revisions

The Australian Dollar is the best pair to trade on Chinese news due to the fact that Australia is a major trading partner and supplies China with alot of Raw Materials required for production of goods. Here is the first chart of the AUDUSD 1 minute which shows the reaction to the release. Notice that the move started 10 minute before the official 9pm EST release...it then chopped for awhile before leading on to rally further as the middle east and then Europe woke up and arrived at their trading desks.

and here is a 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD which shows some Key Levels from the lead into the Tokyo Open on January 17th 2012...it bounced off the 1.0300 round figure which was Daily Central Pivot (Yellow Line at the bottom of the chart)...the AUDUSD forex pair then moved back up to the 1.0336 area where the turquoise line is. This is the 61% fibonacci retracement of the October 27th high of 1.0652 to the November 23rd low of 0.9663. This level had been tested during the Monday January 16th 2012 trading session and bounced off it back to the 1.0300 round figure. When the Xinhua News Agency announced the GDP figures 10 minutes early this fib aread was broken and the pair pierced the R1 Daily Pivot as the figures hit the main wires at 9pm...this Pivot did stall the pair for awhile until more bids came in 20 minutes after the release, moving it to the R2 Pivot which it overshot with a strong candle but did fold over a bit until more bids came in to take it over the 1.0400 handle, this time with the R2 Pivot supporting the pair from below, giving it the foundation to lead the assault on cracking the 1.0400 figure. Europe opened and the pair tagged the 1.0433 area which is the 61% of the larger swing of the July 27th high of 1.1080 to the October 4th 0.9387 as German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved and not bad Bond auctions from Spain, Greece and Belgium occurred. More detail on ZEW in next post.

US Retail Sales - Much Better Price Action to Lower Deviation

At 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Retail Sales figures for the USA were released along with the Weekly jobless numbers the Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers. The numbers were weaker accross the board. This figure has not been responding very well recently and we have been only watching larger deviations, so although this month the deviations were larger than the past few months, they were still below the +-/0.7 we watch. However there was a good price response the this -0.5 deviation, especially the EMini S&P 500 Futures contract, which really is the best trading instrument to trade on this number. However the move was helped by the Weekly Initial Jobless figure which came back down to break the late February 2011 lows, reaching 364k on December 22nd 2011 - the lowest number for the year. A lower Jobless Figures is good. The weekly number had been hovering around 400k for some weeks leading into the end of the year when it finally broke in December, a bullish sign, but today it is back near 400k again....Was this reduction in the jobless merely temporary Christmas employment...we could have a bad print for February's NFP...keep your eyes open


Here the figures:

US Retail Sales Less Autos
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.2% to +0.8%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.3%
US Advance Retail Sales
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.2% to +0.9%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.4%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
EStimates: Median +0.4% Average +0.3% Range 0.0% to +0.5%
Actual: 0% Average +0.2% NO Revision
US Initial Jobless Claims w/w
Estimates: Median +375k Average +378k Range 352k to 405k
Actual: 399k Prior 372k Revised 375k
US Continuing Claims w/w
Estimates: Median 3595k Average +3590k Range 3545k to 3630k
Actual: 3628k Prior: 3595k Revised: 3609k

Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future which had a nice move, this really is the best instrument to trade on US news these days.

Next is the CADJPY 10 second chart which usually has a good correlation to the Stock indices:

Finally the USDJPY 30 second chart for completion, initially there was some whipsaw price action but it did eventually head down:

Norwegian Retail Sales and Industrial Production - mixed reading EURNOK trends slowly down

Industrial Production was higher but Retail Sales was lower. There were 6 data points in total which were quite mixed, so it a bit confusing and with NFP ahead not really a trade work the risk. Despite this its included on this blog for reference.

Here is the data:
Norway Ind Production SA MoM
Estimates: Median -0.1% Average +0.4% Range -0.5% to +2.4%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: -0.8%
Norway Ind Prodcution WDA YoY
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +0.7%
Norway Industrial Prod. WDAJ YOY
Actual: -1.2% Prior: -5.7%
Norway Industrial Production SA MoM
Actual: +1.2% Prior: -1.8%

Norway Retail Sales - vol sa (MoM)
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.2% Range -0.4% to +0.6%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.7% No Revisions
Norway Retail Sales Vol. nsa. (YoY)
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +1.2% No Revisions

Here is a 5 min chart of the EURNOK:

and here is a 15 minute chart of EURNOK which shows how the move on the pair started to trend lower from the asian session thru the european and american sessions into the close of the week:

Canadian Retail Sales - Better Print leads to some CAD strength

This figure has not had any big deviation since May, there have been small deviations of +/-0.1 or +/-0.2 which cause quick 10-20 pip blips which quickly reversed.

Today the Risk-Off trade returned after the ECB bond auction which initially caused a move higher on risky assets but was sold into...EURUSD popped from 1.3150 to 1.3200 and then sold off all the
way to 1.3030. This was basically a buy the rumor, sell the news as the bond auction was expected to be good.

Anyhow the USDCAD followed the move down in EURUSD and risky assets by rallying from 1.0200 to 1.0300, which it tagged right before the news. The deviations were moderate and below what we would normally be interested in but as 1.0300 was a key level there was a nice move of about 30-35 pips off this level with the good canadian news. Here the figures:

Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Core)
Estimates: Median +0.2%, Average +0.2%, Range -0.3% to +0.5% (majority:0.2 to 0.3)
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.5% Revised +0.4%
Canadian Retail Sales MoM
Estimates: Median 0.5%, Average +0.5%, Range 0.0% to +0.9% range (majority 0.3-0.7)
Actual: +1.0% Prior: +1.0% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of USDCAD:

and here is the 30 second chart which shows move or the move:

UK Retail Sales - Lower but last months higher figures revised even higher

This morning at 9:30am london time (4:30am EST) the UK Retail Sales figures for November were released. Here the figures:
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.4% Average -0.3% Range -1.0% to +0.8%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +0.9%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.4% to +1.4%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.3% Average -0.3% Range -0.9% to +0.5%
Actual: -0.4% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +1.0%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.4% Average +1.2% Range -0.3% to +1.2%
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

Although lower than expected this month, last month's numbers were higher than expected and this
month they were revised even higher. Retail Sales is usually quite a volitile indicator, 1 month up 1 month down. Here is the 10 second chart of the Price action...leading into the news the GBPUSD rallied from its Daily Central Pivot at 1.5470 and hit the big Century round figure of 1.5500 just before the news and had already bounced 15-20 pip before the data was released.

This is a 1 minute chart which shows all the bars from the 8am European Cash Equity open thru the 9:30 release, and the following hour or 2 after:

So far this week all the markets have been selling off and the US Dollar has strenghtened on this Risk aversion. Cable has held up better than other pairs as it has aquired a bit of a safe-haven status because the pound is outside europe and can print money and adjust interest rates, something Italy and Spain cannot do because they use the Euro. Volumes have been light due to Christmas holidays approaching so moves have exaccerbated. Yesterday rumors of a French downgrade from triple A rating was circulating which did not happen but it could, it was enough to keep things selling off. Rumors have been rampant as Marketmakers take advantage of thin liquidity to get traders on the wrong side. Tuesday had rumors of Iran blocking the straits of hormus which was totally false. Tuesday had merkel cap the size of the ESM and this reversed the oil lead rally and commence the sell-off, then the FOMC made comments that economic uncertainty persists which continued the move down...A small correction in europe on wednesday and then USA open and again continued to sell. So far today in europe up and down.

US Retail Sales - Slightly lower but not much movement

Retail Sales from the USA was released today at 8:30am EST or 13:30 GMT

Came out lower but did not see much reaction to price, that is why we
only trader larger deviation on this which we have not seen for awhile now
Anyhow here are the figures:

Advance Retail Sales
Estimates : Median +0.6% Average +0.6% Range +0.2% to +1.1%
Prior: +0.5% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Less Autos
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.1% to +0.8%
Prior: +0.6% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.2% to +0.6%
Prior: +0.7% Actual: +0.2%

Here is the USDJPY chart 30 seconds:

and the CADJPY chart 30 secs as well, this pair mirrors the move of the Stock Indices quite well

Also a spreadbetter's Emini chart 1m, just for the hell of it

Canadian Retail Sales After-spike Scalping with the FX Futures Contract

This past Friday January 21st 2011, the Retail Sales figures out of Canada were release, these were generally expected to be higher after the Bank of Canada said in there last that household spending had unexpectedly increase, this was opposed to their statement in October which was that it was likely to reduce. Here are the figures:

CANADA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.3% V 0.5%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: 1.0% V 0.5%E
- Prior Retail Sales MoM revised higher from 0.8% to 1.0%

A good deviation on the headline number, but really was looking for more of a deviation on the Core figure on this one. Spike traders were focusing on the Core number primarily for a spike trade, however both did numbers did come out higher than expected, so it was a good reason to buy Canadian Dollars, and there was actually alot more pips to be made on the follow thru.

The attached chart show the 2 trades taken, remember the Canadian Dollar Futures moves opposite to the direction of the USDCAD forex pair, so basically you are trading CADUSD. This chart is a good example of what can happen with economic news trading, sometimes the 1st pullback doesn't give you the continuation, so either you are patient or take some profit when you see the trade rolling back over. You can always reenter a trade so I perfer to do this rather than wait for it go back in the profitable direction.

Swedish GDP and Retail Sales

This Monday Nov. 29th 2010 and 8:30am GMT (3:30am EST) some big news hit the wires from Sweden. Although there was two pieces of news at the same time the deviation was huge, so if a spike trade was not possible, then an opportunity for an afterspike was available. As the Euro was selling off anyhow, this news especially caused the EURSEK to sell-off thru-out the rest of the day. Here is the data:


SWEDEN OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.8% V 0.4%E;
Y/Y: 5.1% V 4.3%E
- Prior MoM revised lower from 0.8% to 0.7%
- Prior YoY revised lower from 5.5% to 5.2%

SWEDEN Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.1% V 1.2%E;
Y/Y: 6.9% V 5.4%E
- Prior QoQ revised higher 4.5%r from 1.9% to 2.0%

- Prior YoY revised lower from 4.6% to %

Canadian Retail Sales and US GDP - alot of data but no good deviations

This Tuesday at the main time slot for North American news 8:30am EST (1:30pm GMT) alot of data came out of both the USA and Canada. Just 1 and a half hours early Canada had released its CPI figures and now it was releasing its Retail Sales. Also the USA was releasing its GDP figures. Both numbers had potential to cause nice moves in the Forex and Futures markets, but it is kind of a waste to release them all at once as a deviation in the US number can affect the US Dollar and effect the price of USDCAD which is responding to the Canadian data. We can try to mute this somewhat by trading EURCAD or CADJPY but still these pairs will react to any move in the USD and it is the main pair which is involved in the majority of transactions in forex. Anyway here is the Data:

CANADA SEPT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 0.7%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E
- Prior Retail Sales MoM revised higher from 0.5% to 0.7%.
- Prior Ex Autos MoM revised higher from 0.4% to 0.6%.

(US) Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q ANNUALIZED: 2.5% V 2.4%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.8% V 2.5%E

(US) Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.3% V 2.3%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.8%E

Not a significant deviation in any of these numbers to get interested in this. The Canadian Data was actually mixed with headline -0.1 and core +0.1, these sorts of conflicts are what traders want to avoid and why its best to use a larger deviation so chances are both figures will agree. Included is a 10 second chart of the USDCAD which shows how price blipped up 10 pips and then turned around back down 20 pips....nothing here.

Also be sure to check out Doug Ragan blog entry for Trading the US GDP with the EMini S&P 500 Futures Contract

UK Retail Sales - small deviation and conflict

Not really much to report on this UK Retail Sales number for this Nov 18th 2010. This can be and excellent report to trade, but when there is not a decent deviation from the expected number, it just is not worth getting involved in. Pretty obviously this number reports how much stuff people purchased, and people purchasing and consuming is good for the economy. There are 4 numbers that come out with this report but generally the headline m/m figure is the one to watch, but obviously to get a high probability trade signal it is best that all 4 numbers deviate in the same direction. There was a small deviation of +0.1 on both the headline and core month-on-month numbers, however there was a conflict with the year-on-year figures which both deviated negatively from expectations, including a larger -0.3 deviation on the y/y core number. This is another reason for choosing sufficient deviations to trade. The larger the deviation of one piece of data the more likely the rest are to deviate in the same direction. Regardless none of the deviations were enough for us to get any trade opportunities, it is a shame as this report can be good to trade, but the appropriate deviations are chosen for a reason, to keep us safe and out of a market that is not likely to move in the direction we anticipate. There was also some Public Finances data that was released at the same time, but this data is not as important as the Retail Sales numbers. Here is the data:

(UK) OCT RETAIL SALES EX AUTO FUEL M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.5%E
- Prior MoM revised lower from 0.0% to -0.3%
- Prior YoY revised lower from 1.8% to 1.3%

(UK) OCT RETAIL SALES WITH AUTO FUEL M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V 0.0%E
- Prior MoM revised lower from -0.2% to -0.5%
- Prior YoY revised lower from 0.5% to 0.0%

(UK) OCT PUBLIC FINANCES (PSNCR): £2.4B V £6.0BE; PUBLIC SECTOR NET BORROWING: £9.8B V £8.9BE
- PSNB ex Interventions: £10.3B v £9.6Be

- Prior Net Borrowing revised lower from £15.6B to £14.4B
- Prior PSNB ex Interventions revised lower from £16.2 to £15.0B

Included is a chart of the resulting price action. Basically a whipsaw type of movement can be seen. This is definately something to stay away from and it is this type of situation which can make straddling these reports dangerous.

US Retail Sales - core flat but headline good dev

Today we saw the release of the Retail Sales figures out of the USA. The focus is on the main Core Retail Sales figure to get a spike trade, however today this figure came out as expected. The headline figure, which includes automobile sales, did come out with a -0.5 deviation. This is about the deviation we were looking for on the Core number. Initially price action did not respond much, in fact in the first few seconds the USDJPY actually went up a few pips, however it then turned back down, it was not a fast move however and it did pullback to provide some afterspike forex news trade signals. Here are the figures:

*(US) OCT ADVANCE RETAIL SALES: 1.2% V 0.7%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS: 0.4% V 0.4%E V
- Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.4% v 0.3%e

- Prior Advance Retail Sales revised higher from 0.6% to 0.7%
- Prior Ex Auto revised higher from 0.4% to 0.5%

Always fib the initial swing after the news, this will give the trader certain levels to look for an entry. It can be tempting to chase the price, and often even this will give pips when there is a continuation, especially after a larger deviation. A safer way is to wait for the pullback after the initial spike. In this news release, the market needed a bit of time to make the move. Most traders, not seeing a deviation on the core, stood aside for a moment and then once price started reacting in the expected way to the headline figure, they jumped in. On the EURUSD chart included there was an initial pullback to the 50-61% hot zone, this then extended up to the 161% extension of the same move (this 161% at 1.3650 is also the 61% of Friday Nov.12th range), also later on it came back to the former swing high, and although it did break below this for a few moments, it came back above and started heading higher. On the USDJPY chart the pullback was only to the 38%. Normally we focus on the USDJPY pair when trading this news, however at times the USDJPY does not react so well so it is always advisable to also look at the EURUSD or USDCHF for trade opportunities.

Doug Ragan has also posted about how the EMini S&P Futures Contract traded during the news, including info about trading a the opening gap. I took this trade and made 3 ES Points, or 12 ticks....quite happy about that...Cheers Doug!

Australian Retail Sales

I have not been so impressed with this news indicator, however the past 2 months have seen it turn around. Possibly now that there is less fear in the markets, traders are again looking at the data. Back in August a -1.4 deviation from the expected number (0.5 exp -1.4 actual) caused a quick blip down and retraced well past the pre-release price: Click here for chart

However then in September a -1.5 deviation gave a nice spike, small retrace and a continued move down, very nice trading. View Chart

Then last month a tiny +0.4 deviation gave a nice spike, then went flat, but again then continued. Of course we cannot forget the prevaling trend and sentiment in the AUD during that period. See chart


So I decide to follow with a 0.4 deviation from the expected number of 0.5, so 0.9 or great I would buy, and 0.1 of less I would sell. This month we also had the quarterly numbers which should not conflict with the month on month number. There was a conflict , the m/m was -0.7 and the q/q was +0.1, however the q/q numbers were slightly delayed, so the market had a good reaction down on the m/m number. But it was a fast initial spike down and I could not get out at the bottom before it started to bounce, so I missed about 15 more pips, but still I got 40 pips so I was happpy