US ADP - Flat Print market just hiccups

Today on March 7th 2012 at 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST) the ADP figures were released from the USA. These figures are said to be a leading indicator for Friday highly anticipated NFP release. Not sure however how accurate it is at forecasting the NFP, regardless if it has a big enough deviation from expectations the market will rally. Today it was flat however and the market just did a little hiccup and then continued.

The market is awaiting the NFP on Friday and also the ECB will announce their latest Interest Rate decision tomorrow along with Mario Draghi's Press Conference. To top it off the deadline for the Greek PSI Bond Swap Deal is 8pm GMT on Thursday and the market has been reacting to headlines about the % of PSI voluntary participation in the deal. If the level is not high enough there maybe CAC (collective action clauses) invoked on those who do not accept the deal and this could trigger some CDS (Credit Default Swaps)...the whole maneuver appears specifically to be designed to get around the legal phrasing of the CDS so Greece can do some sort of orderly default without crumbling the whole house of cards which all these derivatives have built up. One thing triggering another and on and on.

Here is the data:

US ADP
Estimates -> Median: +215k Average: +211k Low: +120k High: +270k
Actual: +216k Prior: +170k Revised: +173k

About a 15 minutes later 2 smaller reports were released, these normally don't get much attention:


US Nonfarm Productivity
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.9% Low: +0.5% High: +1.6%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.7% No Revision

US Unit Labor Costs
Estimates -> Median: +1.2% Average: +1.4% Low: +0.7% High: +2.8%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future:

This is the 15 second chart of the DAX

Just to be complete here are the 1 minute charts of the USDJPY and CADJPY forex pairs, they usually are quite good at following the movement Stock Indices. You can see they just wiggled a bit when the data was released. However the Yen Crosses have been rallying hard over the past 2 weeks but took a break and retraced during the 1st half of this week. This move was due as they were quite overbought. They seemed to get some attention in and have started to bounce off these retracement levels.

US ISM Manufacturing - slightly off estimates but still not bad

Today on Wednesday 1st of February at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the ISM Manufacturing PMI figures were released from the USA. There came out slightly below estimates but still quite high, especially in comparison to Europes figures which were released earlier, although Europe is recovering a bit for the much worse PMI figures a few months ago. Anyway the negative deviation was no where near where we would get interested in selling.

Here are the figures:

US ISM Manufacturing
Estimates- Median: 54.5 Average: 54.4 Range: 53.0 to 56.0
Actual: 54.1 Prior: 53.9 No Revision

US ISM Prices Paid
Estimates- Median: 50.0 Average: 50.2 Range: 48.0 to 53.0
Actual: 55.5 Prior: 47.5 No Revision

The Session was risk on in general. The better Eurozone PMIs and hope that a deal on the Greek PSI would be coming soon lifted risk appetite. So although this was slightly off it still was pretty good considering everything and the risk-on move continued. First is the S&P 500 EMini Futures 1 minute chart. Despite an initial wiggle or whipsaw it did resolve higher:

Here is the 1 minute chart of the DAX Future which moves in tandem with the US indices on US news.....usually:

The CADJPY did continue up some 30 pips, taking its time...here is the 5 minute chart of CADJPY:

The USDJPY stayed most flat until it hit a lumpy bid about 2 hours later, still the cross remains under pressure despite the fake trendline break before the FOMC last week. Here is the 5 minute chart of the USDJPY:

US Chicago PMI

Today on Tuesday 31st of January 2012 at 9:45 EST (15:45 GMT ) the Chicago PMI figures were released from the USA. This economic indicator has rebounded nicely from may but today it did come out lower and actually did cause a bit of risk off. This was unexpected because in many cases the market has not reacted predictably on this news releases, even when there are significant deviations.

Here are the figures:

US Chicago PMI
Estimates: Median: 63.0 Average: 62.6 Range: 59.0 to 67.0
Actual: 60.2 Prior: 62.2 No Revision


It appears as the market waits for NFP it is content to run to the extremes intraday as the market had rallied from the New york session the previous day, thru asia and europe just to sell off again when NY opened again. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future. There is a blue line marked at 9:42 est which is where this data is released to special subscribers before the general release 3 minutes later:

This is a 10 minute chart which shows the EMini S&P 500 future rally from the day before into this news:

Next is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY. This pair usually does not move many pips but it did go in the direction of the deviations:

Now the CADJPY 30 second chart, which had a better move and follows the main stock indices like the S&P 500 very well:

However remember that there was Canadian GDP at 8:30 est about 75 minutes before this news, so the Canadian Dollar was still be affected by that. Here is a 1 minute chart of the CADJPY Forex pair which shows the whole move on the pair thru the Canadian GDP and the US Chicago PMI. Luckily the weaker Canadian GDP agreed with the lower US Chicago PMI figures both in terms of the Canadian Dollar and the risk-off price flow:

US GDP Advanced for Q4 2011 - High Expectations slight disappointment but good moves

This friday January 27th 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Advanced or 1st reading of GDP for Q4 2011 was released from the USA. The expectations for this were quite high, considering that the Final Reading for Q3 was +1.8%, to jump to +3.0% is nearly doubling growth. As the expectation was quite high some probably considered that a small miss of the expectation would not cause a major sell off, but in the end it did provide a decent move down, although later on in the session things rebounded and there was a rally into the close for the week. Alot of these was do to good headlines about a deal on the deal with PSI about a haircut on Greek Debt, that an agreement was close.

Anyway here is the data:

US GDP QoQ (Annualized) Advanced Q4 2011
Estimates- Median: +3.0% Average: +3.0% Range: +2.4% to +4.5%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.8% No Revision
US GDP Price Index
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.7% Range: +0.6% to +2.6%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +2.6% No Revision
US Core PCE QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.9% Average: +1.1% Range: +0.8% to +2.4%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: +2.1% No Revision
US Personal Consumption
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +1.2% to +3.6%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.7% No Revision

Here are some charts then, first is the Emini S&P 500 Future 1 minute chart:

Also another option for stock index futures is the DAX, or the FTSE, any major index will move with the EMini and DOW on US news. I like the DAX:

In Forex the CADJPY follows the Stock Indices quite well. Any Commodity Currency (AUD,NZD,CAD...or even ZAR or NOK probably will have to review those charts) versus the Japanese Yen will generally follow the stock indices, sometimes Canadian News comes out at the same time as US News so you have to watch out for that. This is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

Last month the USDJPY did not follow the lower print and actually moved up (only a small amount of pips). This time it did follow everything down, but normally this pair is avoided since it really doesn't move that much most of the time. Here is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY forex pair:

Actually it was risk-off across the board the USD dollar rallied as well with AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD selling off. Although the JPY did appreciate more than the USD on this risk-off move as can be seen by the USDJPY chart above. Here are 2 more charts of AUDUSD and NZDUSD, this time 5 minute chart and you can see more price action. Later on in the US Session as mentioned the deal on PSI haircuts looked close also 90 minutes after GDP the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures were released at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT). This data has rebounded nicely since some bad prints during August 2011. Now the figure is coming back up to 2 year highs. Here is that data:

US U. of Michigan Confidence
Estimates- Median: 74.0 Average: 74.3 Range: 72.5 to 76.0
Actual: 75.0 Prior: 74.0 No Revision

Finally these 2 charts are GMT+2 and also the Green line at the top is the R1 pivot, which AUDUSD tagged perfectly and sold off from, while NZDUSD overshot a bit. The Red Arrow is the release of GDP while the Blue Arrow is the release of U. of Michigan Confidence. The NZDUSD found support right on the Yellow horizontal line which is the Daily Central pivot:

US Pending Home Sales - Sell the Rumor Buy the News

A half an hour after the New York Cash Stock Equity Open at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Pending Home Sales figures were released. There were some negative headlines out of Europe about Greece and Portugal later in the European mid-day which gave the risk-on sentiment a pullback. The Emini S&P 500 sold off as the 9:30 open passed and headed down in the half hour leading into the News.

This really isn't the best economic news release to trade as everyone knows that housing is generally bad anyhow. In the past we have watched the USDJPY on US news but really the EMini S&P 500, the DOW or really any of the major Stock Indices generally follow US news quite well. The USDJPY does work but usually doesn't move many pips, perhaps 10. Here the figures:

US Pending Homes Sales MoM
Estimates- Median: -1.0% Average: -0.8% Range: -8.1% to +7.0%
Actual: -3.5% Prior: +7.3% No Revision
US Pending Homes Sales YoY
Actual: +4.4% Prior: +6.9% No Revision
US Home Price Index MoM
Estimates- Median: 0.0% Average: 0.0% Range: -0.5% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.0% Prior: -0.2% Revised: -0.7%

This is not large enough deviation trade, normally something closer to +/-5.0 or more, so this was a small -2.5 deviation and as the EMini had sold off into the news there was a good chance of a bounce back on a 'less worse than it could have been' type of rebound. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 from a spreadbet broker:

If you are stuck to just trading Forex, then the CADJPY is a good pair to trade because it has a good correlation to the main stock indices, which are driven by risk-on/risk-off price flow dynamic. Here is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY forex pair:

Currency COT Report for January 20th 2012

US Philly Fed - Rumor of higher print but then lower print

Market has been near the tops since the US CPI numbers, then at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index came out. This number has rebounded from the horrible -35 or so print back in august 2011, but now it has gained ground back above 10. The risk-on theme continued and about 5 minutes before the news there was a rumor that came thru talking-forex.com that the number would print higher. This geared market expectations and then when it came out lower probably trapped some longs. Here are the figures:

US Philadelphia Fed
Estimates- Median: 10.3 Average: 10.5 Range: 7.0 to 16.8
Actual: 7.3 Prior: 10.3 No Revision

Here is a 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P500 future which shows how it moved down after the -3 dev. This is normally not a big enough deviation from the expected figure to trade on.

Here is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY, notice the spike into the release on that rumor. Then came down. Of course it was only a small lower deviation and the rest of the news has been good and a risk-on day, so after awhile cadjpy found some bids and rallied past those highs again.

Finally the USDJPY went sidewise for a half hour but then found some bids and rallied significantly for this pair:

US CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits & Initial Jobless Claims - mixed reading forms a top

Today on Thursday January 19th at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Consumer Price Inflation figures were released from the USA. This also came out with a bunch of other data such as Housing Starts, Building Permits and the weekly Jobless data, the Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims. So there was alot of data to go through was it was quite difficult to get a clear trade based on the numbers. The CPI was flat, the Housing Numbers were weaker but the Initial Jobless Claims made a new low, breaking December 2011 low which had just broken the late February 2011 low. Last week this number did rebound to 399k, a higher number being bad in this case, but then this week it came back down. This 'much better than xx months/ x years' type headline seemed to steal the limelight, everyone knows that Housing is bad anyhow, but if employment is better then the economy has a better chance of recovery. The morning had been pretty risk-on with good earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of American, both those stocks jumped over 6%. Here is the data:

US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.1% to +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% No Revision

US Headline CPI m/m
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.1% to +0.3%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: 0.0% No Revision

US Core CPI y/y
Estimates- Median: +2.2% Average: +2.2% Range: +2.0% to +2.3%
Actual: +2.2% Prior: +2.2% No Revision

US Headline CPI y/y
Estimates- Median: +3.0% Average: +3.0% Range: +2.9% to +3.2%
Actual: +3.0% Prior: +3.4% No Revision

US Housing Starts
Estimates- Median: 680k Average: +682k Range: +625k to +723k
Actual: +657k Prior: +685k No Revision

US Housing Starts MOM%
Estimates- Median: -0.7% Average: -0.5% Range: -8.8% to +5.6%
Actual: -4.1% Prior: +9.3% Revised: +9.1%

US Building Permits
Estimates- Median: +679k Average: +680k Range: +640k to +728k
Actual: +679k Prior: +681k Revised: +680k

US Building Permits MOM%
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: 0.0% Range: -5.9% to +7.1%
Actual: -0.1% Prior: +5.7% Revised: +5.6%

US Initial Jobless Claims
Estimates- Median: +384k Average: +383k Range: +363k to +405k
Actual: +352k Prior: +399k Revised: +402k

US Continuing Claims
Estimates- Median: +3590k Average: +3577k Range: +3500k to +3630k
Actual: +3432k Prior: +3628k Revised: +3647k

So 1st chart is the EMini S&P 500 future 1 minute chart which basically show a whipsaw as the market digested the positive and negative aspects of the data:

Next is the USDJPY 1 minute chart which after a little whiggle did catch a bid, this one is the safest forex pair to trade on USA news but it doesn't always move that many pips:

finally is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY, this one usually follows the stock indices quite well and when good US data gives a boost to risk appetite this one can rally. However inflation is difficult these days. In the past high CPI meant that the Fed would more likely to raise interest rates which would strengthen a currency, however sometimes the stock market would not like higher rates. In the current economic situation however, high CPI means the Fed is less likely to do more Quantitative Easing and the market will rally if there is more QE but the US dollar will weaken.

US Retail Sales - Much Better Price Action to Lower Deviation

At 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Retail Sales figures for the USA were released along with the Weekly jobless numbers the Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers. The numbers were weaker accross the board. This figure has not been responding very well recently and we have been only watching larger deviations, so although this month the deviations were larger than the past few months, they were still below the +-/0.7 we watch. However there was a good price response the this -0.5 deviation, especially the EMini S&P 500 Futures contract, which really is the best trading instrument to trade on this number. However the move was helped by the Weekly Initial Jobless figure which came back down to break the late February 2011 lows, reaching 364k on December 22nd 2011 - the lowest number for the year. A lower Jobless Figures is good. The weekly number had been hovering around 400k for some weeks leading into the end of the year when it finally broke in December, a bullish sign, but today it is back near 400k again....Was this reduction in the jobless merely temporary Christmas employment...we could have a bad print for February's NFP...keep your eyes open


Here the figures:

US Retail Sales Less Autos
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.2% to +0.8%
Actual: -0.2% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.3%
US Advance Retail Sales
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.2% to +0.9%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.4%
US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
EStimates: Median +0.4% Average +0.3% Range 0.0% to +0.5%
Actual: 0% Average +0.2% NO Revision
US Initial Jobless Claims w/w
Estimates: Median +375k Average +378k Range 352k to 405k
Actual: 399k Prior 372k Revised 375k
US Continuing Claims w/w
Estimates: Median 3595k Average +3590k Range 3545k to 3630k
Actual: 3628k Prior: 3595k Revised: 3609k

Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future which had a nice move, this really is the best instrument to trade on US news these days.

Next is the CADJPY 10 second chart which usually has a good correlation to the Stock indices:

Finally the USDJPY 30 second chart for completion, initially there was some whipsaw price action but it did eventually head down:

US ISM Non-Manufacturing - Slightly lower print punctuates dowswing from the Open

Risk off day as problems with European banking sector hit the market. US market had already digested some good ADP numbers and slightly better weekly jobless numbers. Stock indices sold off as the New York cash equity opened and this ISM release was slighted for half an hour later. This slightly lower deviation caused a little extra selling pressure to pierce some lows and basically punctuate the low before reversing. It was not a big enough deviation to cause much of a move.
The Ivey PMI figures for Canada were released at the same time.

Here the figures:

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Estimates: Median 53.0 Average 53.1 Range 52.0 to 55.0 (52.5-53.5 most)
Actual: 52.6 Prior: 52.0 No Revisions

CAD Ivey PMI
Estimates: Median 58.0 Average 58.4 Range 56.0 to 61.0
Actual: 63.5 Prior: 59.9 No Revisions

First chart is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 Futures Contract. The 3pm GMT (10am EST) release brought a slightly lower low which then brought about a reversal higher:

Next the 30 second chart of the USDJPY, which had rallied since the good nearly +150k deviation on the 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST) release of US ADP, it did sell off a bit on the news:

Finally the 30 second chart of the CADJPY is interesting as the strong Canadian Ivey PMI data did not move the pair up initially as it is so highly correlated to the Stock Indices and the risk appetite/aversion dynamic in the market:

US GDP Final for Q3 2011 - lower GDP but Initial Jobless Claims lower which is good

Today at 8:30 EST 13:30 GMT the GDP figures for the USA came out. This is the final reading for the 3rd quarter of 2011 and thus are a bit dated. These came along with the weekly jobless figures which last week broke the critical 400k bull/bear line and printed 366k coming back down to the April lows, which is where things were before fears of a double dip grew during the summer of 2011. There was also personal consumption and pce core, the fed's perfered inflation indicator.

It is rare for there to be such a range of estimates for a final release of GDP but after the Advanced of 2nd reading of Q3 back in November where the figure came out at 2.0% below the 2.5% expected, the range of analysts estimates grew quite wide...wider in fact than last month's estimates which had a 0.9 range this month had a 1.3 range.

The IJC did come in slightly lower this week than last week, not alot but it is positive that it maintained the lower reading from last week into this one. The GDP was -0.2 deviation below the median estimate of all analysts surveyed by bloomberg and the risky assets did sell off. Here the figures:



US GDP QoQ Annualized - Final Q3 2011
Estimates: Median +2.0%, Average +2.0%, Range +1.5% to +2.8% (majority +1.8% to +2.2%)
Actual: +1.8% Prior: +2.0% No Revision


US Personal Consumption
Estimates: Median +2.3% Average +2.2% Range +1.5% to +2.4% (majority +2.2% to +2.4%)
Actual: +1.7% Prior: +2.3% No Revision

US GDP Price Index
Estimates: Median +2.5% Average +2.5% Range +2.0% to +2.5% (majority +2.5)
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.5% No Revision

US Core PCE q/q
Estimates: Median +2.0% Average: +2.0% Range +2.0% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.1% Prior: +2.0% No Revision

US Initial Jobless Claims w/w
Estimates: Median +380k Average: +378k Range +355k to +400k
Actual: +364k Prior: +366k Revised: +368k

US Continuing Claims w/w
EStimates: Median +3600k Average +3602k Range +3560k to +3650k
Actual: +3546k Prior: +3603k Revised: +3625k

Now for some charts...what was interesting is looking at last months reaction to the -0.5 deviation lower from +2.5 expected to the +2.0 of the actual release. Normally there would have been a good move lower on the Japanese Yen crosses but instead we saw broad US Dollar strength on risk aversion. I know it might not make sense that the US Dollar would strengthen on bad data from the USA but when markets get bad data they respond by dumping riskier high yeild assets and buying safe US bonds...it is the largest safest market in the world, but they don't yeild so much. First chart is the Australian Dollar versus US Dollar AUDUSD 10 second chart:

next is the CADJPY, which has a high correlation to stock indices...last month the US GDP was released with Canadian Retail Sales at the same time, which was higher while GDP was lower, so it was not a good pair to trade last month, this month it was good:

Nice to look at the DAX chart, this is the index for the German stock market, but it moves nicely on US news as well. This is the 1 minute chart:

should include the Emini S&P 500 to be complete..1 minute chart:

and finally the USDJPY is included because this was the safest pair to trade on US news, this is because you cannot always be sure that risk-on will mean selling US Dollars and risk-off will be buying US Dollars...sometimes risk-on is selling the Japanese yen and risk-off is buying the yen. if there is good US data it should mean that the US currency should strengthen but because of the risk-on/off dynamic it is not always the case. Because the yen is alot like the US dollar in the case it is sometimes good to trade this pair as you go negative the US dollar on bad data and you go positive the japanese yen on risk aversion. The market right now is more slanted towards buying US dollars on bad news and risk aversion or risk-off than buying japanese yen, this is not always the case as many bad GDP releases in the past this pair has sold off. Here is the chart today which shows this didn't work today...

US Housing Starts and Building Permits - higher leads to rally after some time

The Housing Starts and Building Permits data from the USA was released today December 20th 2012
at 8:30am EST, 13:30 GMT. It was higher and although the initial reaction was small it did lead to a rally in all risky assets...AUDUSD, CADJPY, DAX, EMini S&P 500 futures

The market is very thin, no volume due to the approaching Christmas holidays so the reaction might have been a bit exaggerated. However the number was alot higher than the median estimate, and hte largest deviation for awhile.

Here the figures:

US Housing Starts m/m
Estimates: Median 635k , Average 633k, Range 600k to 655k
Actual: 685k Prior: 628k Revised: 627k

US Housing Starts MoM%
Estimates: Median 1.1% , Average 0.8%, Range -4.5% to +4.3%
Actual: +9.3% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -2.9%

US Building Permits m/m
Estimates: Median: 635k , Average 636k, Range 610k to 668k
Actual: 681k Prior: 653k Revised: 644k

US Building Permits MoM%
Estimates: Median: -1.4%, Average -1.3%, Range -5.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +5.7% Prior: +10.9% Revised: +9.3%

Here some charts:
the CADJPY 5 second chart

and the USDJPY 10 second chart, not such a good response here:

the reaction in the EMini S&P 500 Future (this is spreadbet, probably slightly different the CME) 1 minute chart:

and finally a 1 minute chart of the DAX future:

US CPI - Mixed reading leads to some wiggle as US shows up and sells

Today December 16th at 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) the CPI inflation figures for the USA were released.
This one hasn't had anything more than a +/-0.1 deviation in ages and in this environment of economic uncertainty inflation is not going to change the FOMC interest rates.

Here the figures:

US CPI m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range -0.1% to +0.4%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: -0.1%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.1%

US CPI y/y
Estimates: Median +3.5% Average +3.5% Range +3.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +3.5%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y
Estimates: Median +2.1% Average +2.1% Range +2.0% to +2.3%
Actual: +2.2% Prior: +2.1%

Here some charts, first USDJPY 1 minute:

This is the EMini S&P 500, this is a spreadbet chart, so might be slightly different than the actual futures.

Also the CADJPy 1 minute chart since this has a good correlation to the Stock Indices:

US Retail Sales - Slightly lower but not much movement

Retail Sales from the USA was released today at 8:30am EST or 13:30 GMT

Came out lower but did not see much reaction to price, that is why we
only trader larger deviation on this which we have not seen for awhile now
Anyhow here are the figures:

Advance Retail Sales
Estimates : Median +0.6% Average +0.6% Range +0.2% to +1.1%
Prior: +0.5% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Less Autos
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.1% to +0.8%
Prior: +0.6% Actual: +0.2%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
Estimates : Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.2% to +0.6%
Prior: +0.7% Actual: +0.2%

Here is the USDJPY chart 30 seconds:

and the CADJPY chart 30 secs as well, this pair mirrors the move of the Stock Indices quite well

Also a spreadbetter's Emini chart 1m, just for the hell of it

US CPI + Housing Starts and Building Permits - momentum take some time to build

On Wednesday Nov.17th at 1:30pm GMT (8:30am EST) the Consumer Price Index for the USA was released. At the same time 2 housing data figures were also released. Although these housing numbers are important and frequently they are released on their own and we watch and trade these releases in the live forex & futures trading room when they do. This month however they just happened to be scheduled for the same date and time as the much more important CPI.

CPI is the main measure of inflation and US Federal Reserve has been myopically focused on the deflation that has been seen in the USA and this is 1 of their 2 main mandates - some have even mentioned making inflation the sole mandate of the Fed, currently the other mandate is for the Fed to support job growth. The deflation is the main reason that the Fed has introduced another round of Quantitative Easing, aptly named QE2. They have also maintained very low interest rates, all this is an attempt to make money more available, there is more of it. They use this created money to buy bonds.

Anyhow a higher than expected CPI is generally supportive the US Dollar, as if inflation comes back it may signal that QE2 is working and it is time to scale it back and think about raising rates. So far Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and even Canada have raised their rates after the financial crisis saw all Central Banks cut them drastically. When will the ECB and BOE follow, could the USA be the last to hike, or is it possible that a scenario like is seen in Japan where deflation has continued for over a decade and rates have remained next to zero for all this time. CPI has 4 numbers, 2 yearly and 2 monthly, 1 is a core number which excludes food and energy which are considered more volatile, and a headline number which includes food and energy. Anyhow here is the data:

(US) OCT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; CPI EX FOOD&ENERGY M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; CPI NSA: 218.7 V 218.8E
- CPI Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- CPI Ex-food & Energy Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7%e (Core Y/Y CPI at 0.6% is lowest reading on record)
- CPI core index SA: 221.8 v 221.8 prior
- No revisisons

*(US) OCT HOUSING STARTS: 519K V 598KE (lowest since April 2009); BUILDING PERMITS: 550K V 568KE
- Prior Housing Starts revised lower from 610K to 588K
- The decline in overall starts was almost entirely due to a 44% plunge in multi-family starts. Single-family permits rose by 1.0% to 406K

- Note: Housing starts -11.7% m/m is approximately double the lowest street estimate.

So all the CPI figures were lower by -0.1, this was not enough of a difference lower for it to trigger the lighting fast entry generated by the Secret News Weapon from Fast Economic News Service, however the housing data was also lower. So looking at all the data as a whole after it was released, it all did seem rather negative for the US Greenback. Although the deviations for CPI were small but all 4 of the figures were all negative, which was a definate plus because some times they will conflict, where for example the Core month-on-month number is a positive deviation and the Headline year-on-year figure is negative. Then to add fuel to the fire the Housing Starts figure was the lowest reading since April 2009. As mentioned in previous posts, whenever we see a news headline where a number is the highest of lowest in a certain period of time, the market will pay attention to this. So this housing crisis, which started the how financial meltdown a few years ago, does not seem to be getting that much better, at least in the USA. The Building Permits Data was also lower, not by a large amount and it is not as important as the Housing Starts number, but as it also came out in the same negative direction all the other data, it did not matter and only supported the other data.

Ultimately in these situations price action is true indicator as to whether the data is good or bad. Normally in the trading room we focus on USDJPY when trading Spot Forex for US Data, as well as either the 10 year Notes or the EMini S&P 500 when looking at futures, but we have also started watching the USDCHF as it has had some really good moves on economic figures from the USA. Focusing on the moves in Spot Forex, initially the USDJPY and USDCHF only moved down 15-20 pips minute after the release. There was then a pullback as we have seen on many releases, to the 61% on USDJPY, but on USDCHF the 38% got frontrun. The USDJPY then moved about 10 pips from the number, while the USDCHF produced a 20 pip move, so definately outperforming the Dollar Yen on this news.

Also included are some charts of the next few hours after the release, as with US data sometimes we have to wait for the US Stock market to open, also sometimes there is more US Data at 3pm GMT (10am EST), and many market participants want to see all the data before making their trading decisions. There was no data except the DOE Crude Inventories at 3:30pm EST (10:30am EST), however with all the bad data there was really no reason not to stay short. If price action had turned back up then of course the decision to exit would have had to be take. The Swiss just went into a period of sidewise consolidation for the next half hour, before momentum gently turned lower and then accelerated. From the cart we can see several trading entry opportunities, drawing a new fib over the entire news reaction and watching the candlestick close for entry. Even after the initial move down price on the USDCHF came back up to test the news reaction low at 0.9925, producing another opportunity to enter if the trader had not yet got in or to add more to the position after banking some profit on the initial move down. The USDJPY made a key reversal also about half an hour after the news was also at the 61% fib of the news reaction swing which then price extended down even past the 161% extension of the same move.