Tuesday, December 20, 2011

US Housing Starts and Building Permits - higher leads to rally after some time

The Housing Starts and Building Permits data from the USA was released today December 20th 2012
at 8:30am EST, 13:30 GMT. It was higher and although the initial reaction was small it did lead to a rally in all risky assets...AUDUSD, CADJPY, DAX, EMini S&P 500 futures

The market is very thin, no volume due to the approaching Christmas holidays so the reaction might have been a bit exaggerated. However the number was alot higher than the median estimate, and hte largest deviation for awhile.

Here the figures:

US Housing Starts m/m
Estimates: Median 635k , Average 633k, Range 600k to 655k
Actual: 685k Prior: 628k Revised: 627k

US Housing Starts MoM%
Estimates: Median 1.1% , Average 0.8%, Range -4.5% to +4.3%
Actual: +9.3% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -2.9%

US Building Permits m/m
Estimates: Median: 635k , Average 636k, Range 610k to 668k
Actual: 681k Prior: 653k Revised: 644k

US Building Permits MoM%
Estimates: Median: -1.4%, Average -1.3%, Range -5.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +5.7% Prior: +10.9% Revised: +9.3%

Here some charts:
the CADJPY 5 second chart

and the USDJPY 10 second chart, not such a good response here:

the reaction in the EMini S&P 500 Future (this is spreadbet, probably slightly different the CME) 1 minute chart:

and finally a 1 minute chart of the DAX future:

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