EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Decent Deviation in Trend Direction but

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on Thursday April 5th 2012 the Natural Gas Storage Figures were released from the EIA. They had a bearish Build of +8, a pretty decent number but the spike was quite fast and there was not a continuation. On April 2nd, the active Natural Gas Future Contract NG broke $2.1 which I believe was the low from September 2001, thus making a new decade low. Price prompted bounced from this historic level all the way back to $2.20.

So this may mark a turning point, the historic low has now been taken out, what will happen to this this downtrend in NatGas. Certainly the price was not so willing to continue moving downwards on this quite decent deviation although it was quite a good spike move. Could things go sidewise or is Natural Gas going to make a further push beyond $2.10 perhaps attempting the key $2.00 level. Time will tell, for now there maybe a break with some sidewise action as the winter ends.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage change
Estimates- Median: 34 Average: 34 Low: 25 High: 45
Actual: 42 Prior: 57 No Revisions

Here is a 30 second chart of the May NG contract. It shows how it snapped back all the way to the 78% of the initial sppike move. There was also of bouncing off the pivot as price did tend to move gradually back to the downside, but never took out the initial spike lows...for now at least, perhaps eventually.

DOE Crude Oil Inventories - Big Build leads to big sell off

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on wednesday april 4th, the energy inventory figures where released from the DOE. There was a big build on crude. After a data filled session with Services PMI figure in Europe, then US ADP and ISM figures. Not to mention yesterday afternoon Fed minutes still driving the markets causing the US dollar to appreciate against all the majors. Finally this Crude Inventory finished off the data for the day. There is alot more data tomorrow as it is the 1st week of the month, generally alot of data come but because of Easter Friday everything has be come out by Thursday, with the exception of NFP which the markets will open up especially for.

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates: Median: +2500k Average: +2027k Low: -1500k High: +3500k
Actial: +9009k Prior: +7102k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
5 Estimates: Median: -500k Average: -123k Low: -1000k High: +1250k
Actial: +19kk Prior: -711k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates: Median: -1400k Average: -941k Low: -2500k High: +1750k
Actial: -1457k Prior: -3537k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates: Mediian: +0.35% Average: +0.36% Low: 0.00% High: +1.00%
Actial: +1.20% Prior: +2.30% No Revision

DOES Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actial: 729k Prior: 1043k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14536 Prior: 14075

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4553.3 Prior: 4551.6

DOE Gasoline Impled Demand
Actual: 9163.4 Prior: 9090.4


Here is a 15 second chart, after the release there was a few moments to sell at 102.30-40 to catch the inital spike down, but it moved very fast. AFterwards there was a 38% pullback of the spike range which gave a nice renetry and price continued to move down from this 102.25 level for over 100 ticks.

DOE Crude Oil Inventories

Firstly apologies for the lack of post recently. You may have an idea of just how long it takes to maintain a blog like this, taking charts, compiling data. etc. The idea here is to have something more than just a historical chart of last months move on the data...it is to also give a background to what else was going on in the market at the time the data came out. This can give us News Trader insights on why some news worked better or worse at certain times. I will try and keep up better, I also have a few charts waiting to be uploaded.

Other than that times have been exciting as a new strategy shows incredibly positive results and has lead me to a 3rd month of profitable trading.

Anyhow there was quite a decent sized deviation in Crude today but there again was a conflict with the rest of the complex. The large 4500k Build did spike down crude but it was a rather tame spike by past standards and did reverse and then went choppy. It was quite a risk off day with the Australian Dollar leading the move down as expectations are from the RBA to cut rates in response to the slowdown in China.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +2550k Average: +2367k Low: 0k High: +3500k
Actual: +7102k Prior: -1162k

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -500k Average: -413k Low: -3500k High: +1700k
Actual: -711k Prior: +1763k

DOE U.s. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -1342k Low: -2500k High: +800k
Actual: -3537k Prior:-1214k

DOE Cushing OK Crude Iventory
Actual: +1043k Prior: -176k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14075 Prior: 14216

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4551.6 Prior: 4173.1

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 9090.4 Prior: 8759.4

Here is a 15 second chart of the Active May 2012 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Future Contract. You can see my entry at the low of the spike, looking to take advantage of the conflict across the complex, and although some profit was achieved, it was not substantial and after a near scare, I exited near breakeven with great relief.

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - Fading the hot news Flash - Go with the Trend

This Thursday afternoon of March 15th 2012 at 10:30 EST (14:30 GMT) the EAI Natural Gas Storage Change figures were released. They had a bullish draw however the Natural Gas Future Contract continues to trend lower getting ever more closer to decade lows seen after 9/11

Here is the data:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -59 Average: -58 High: -50 Low: -65
Actual: -64 Prior: -80 No Revisions

Here is a 10 second chart showing fading the initial upward spike reaction to the bullish news. Don't try this at home folks, unless you are experienced at trading and know how to manage risk. The Natural Gas Future is like a slippery eel and it can move faster than virtually any other instrument...indeed sometimes its price action can best be described with one word: GAS!!!

Here is the Daily chart of the active month continuous Natural Gas Future, showing the downtrend. The trend is your friend, don't fight it...while there was money to be made with the quick money move on the instant spike reaction to the news deviation, with the right technological tools of course, always be aware of the trend when trading...news trading or otherwise:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Mixed Deviations

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 16:00 GMT (11:00 EST) the weekly Department of Energy's Inventory figures were released.. This is normally reported weekly on Wednesdays at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) but because Monday was a holiday in the USA because of Presidents day it get moved to Thursday a half hour later because the EIA Natural Gas is normally reported at 10:30. Normally when there is so much energy supply data coming out within 30 minutes it is more risky than usual. Anyway today did not have very big deviations and they were mixed with Crude and Distillates reporting a build but a draw in Gasoline.

Here is the data:

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1350k Average: +760k Range: -2000k to +2500k
Actual: +1633k Prior: -171k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillates Inventories
Estimates- Median: -1500k Average: -785k Range: -2500k to +2000k
Actual: -208k Prior: -2867k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +250k Average: +35k Range: -1500k to +1900k
Actual: -649k Prior: +400k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.23% Range: -1.00% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.5% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: -315k Prior: +1990k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14675 Prior: +14599

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4447.7 Prior: +4934.6

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +9244.1 Prior: +8723.4 No Revision

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print leads to drop in Nattie but stock don't follow

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change number was released from the EIA.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -170 Average: -164 Range: -185 to -125
Actual: -166 Prior: -127 No Revisions

API Crude Oil Inventories - Small Build over prior week

This evening of February 22nd 2012 at 16:30 EST (21:30 GMT) the weekly API energy supply inventory numbers were released. This normally comes out on a Tuesday night, but as it was a holiday in the USA on Monday they were released on Wednesday night instead.

Here is the data:

API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: +3551k Prior: +2902k

API U.S. Distillate Inventory
Actual: +630k Prior: -2156k

API U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Actual: +314k Prior: +1812k

API Cushing Crudde OK Inventory
Actual: -344k Prior +1983k

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print good news trade

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -120 Average: -119 Range: -130 to -110
Actual: -127 Prior: -78 No Revision

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Small Deviations agree across the complex

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision
This Wednesday afternoon at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly Energy Inventory numbers were released from the DOE. This time all off the 3 main items: Crude, Gasoline and Distillates were all lower - a draw. This normal is bullish but the deviations from the median expectation was not very big. Crude just whipsawed...it was a risk off day as more delays in Greece threatened the next Greek bailout and PSI bond haircut deal. This print gave a short break from the risk off flows which then came back around 13:00 EST / 18:00 GMT

Here is the data:


DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
Estimates- Median: -1100k Average: -1088k Range: -3000k to +800k
Actual: -2867k Prior: +1174k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Estimates- Median: +700k Average: +623k Range: -2000k to +2200k
Actual: +400k Prior: +1629k No Revision

DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization
Estimates- Median: -0.15% Average: -0.15% Range: -1.00% to +0.50%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +1.00% No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +1990k Prior: +367k No Revision

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: 14599 Prior: 14133 No Revision

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: 4934.6 Prior: 4432.3 No Revision

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: 8723.4 Prior: 8664.6 No Revision


Here is the 1 minute chart of the active front-month Crude Oil Future:

Also included are some Energy stocks: Devon DVN Cabot COB Chesapeak CHK Exxon XOM and BP
as the 1 minute chart shows some followed the deviation and other did not...a few frontrun the data by a couple of minutes:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print but initially lower but reverses

This Thursday afternoon, February 9th 2012 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Natural Gas Storage Change figure was released from the EIA. Have only been watching this release lately as very high storage levels have been reported this winter which has brought the price of Natural Gas very low. A few weeks ago Chesapeake tried to help this by announcing plans to cut their Natural Gas production. So the market has consolidated a bit for now.

Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -86 Average: -86 Range: -99 to -75
Actual: -78 Prior: -132 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future. From a Spreadbet chart, so no decimal place:

Also included are some Energy Stocks...what is interesting is how these stocks sold off before the annnouncement. Had a slight lower tick on the release and then managed to rally several minutes later, much like the Natural Gas Future did:

Chesapeake (CHK) is always one to watch for Gas:

Cabot (COB) also is good:

Not sure about Devon's (DVN) involvement with Gas, but a smaller energy company:

Finally 2 big companies Exxon (XOM) and BP which trades in London:

DOE Crude Oil, Distillates & Gasoline Inventories - Draw on Crude, Build on Rest

This afternoon of Wednesday February 8th 2012, the DOE inventory figures for Crude, Distillates and Gasoline were released. Last week there was a great news trading profit when the figures on all 3 lined up in agreement. This week there was conflicts. Crude came out with a bullish draw, or lower deviation, but Distillates and Gasoline deviated higher for a Build, which is normally bearish.

Here is the data:
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Median: +2500k Average: +2560k Range: +2000k to +4200k
Actual: +304k Prior: +4175k No Revision

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventories
Median: -875k Average: -700k Range: -2000k to +800k
Actual: +1174k Prior: -135k No Revision

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
Median: +875k Average: +290k Range: -2000k to +1700k
Actual: +1629k Prior: +3017k No Revision

DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
Actual: +367k Prior: +1476k

DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand
Actual: +14133 Prior: +14004

DOE Distillate Implied Demand
Actual: +4432.3 Prior: +4732.3

DOE Gasoline Implied Demand
Actual: +8664.6 Prior: +8593.0

Crude initially followed the bullish draw on its own deviation and blipped up a bit but was reversed by the Bearish Build in the Gasoline and Distillates. Here is a 1 minute chart of the Crude oil future from a spreadbet:

Also included are some 1 minute chart of Energy Stocks, just to show how they moved after the news.

Devon - DVN

Cabot - COB

Chesapeake - CHK

Exxon - XOM

and finally BP

US NonFarm Payroll - Much Higher Risk-On except for European Currencies and Gold

This Friday, February 3rd 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the montly payroll data from the USA was released. This is basically an indication of the Employment Situation and is the most well known and widely watched piece of economic data known to the market. Almost every market instrument will move based on this data. If there are jobs in the USA then there will be confidence and Americans will have money in the pockets to buy stuff...whether houses from the large stock available or things fabricated in China.

Earlier in the week on Wednesday the ADP data came out slightly lower. This is a smaller sample but it gives an advanced indication of what is likely to happen with the NonFarm Payroll Number.
There are other economic data figures which attempt to gauge the employment situation in the USA. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims for instance has been coming out below 400k since December 2011. This broke the low seen in February 2011 and the number has been consistently at around 360k now. The Challenger Job Cuts was higher however, which indicates more people were laid-off from their jobs. The Employment Component of ISM Manufacturing PMI was also slightly lower, but Consumer Confidence definately has been up. Anyhow despite all these advanced readings on the day there is little you can do to predict what the NonFarm Payroll number will be unless you have special connections or something. This time there was an upward surprise. Here is the data:

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +140k Average: +146k Range: +95k to +225k
Actual: +243k Prior: +200k Revised: +203k

US Change in Private Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +160k Average: +162k Range: +110k to +250k
Actual: +257k Prior: +212k Revised: +220k

US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +12k Average: +14k Range: +9k to +25k
Actual: +50k Prior: +23k Revised: +32k

Unemployment Rates
Estimates- Median: +8.5% Average: +8.5% Range: +8.3% to +8.7%
Actual: +8.3% Prior: +8.5% No Revision

Average Hourly Earning MOM All Emp
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.1%

Average Hourly Earning YOY All Emp
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.8% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.1% No Revision

Average Weekly Hours All Employees
Estimates- Median: 34.4 Average: 34.4 Range: 34.3 to 34.5
Actual: 34.5 Prior: 34.4 Revised: 34.5

Change in Household Employment w/Pop
Actual: 847 Prior: 176 No Revision

Underemployment Rate
Actual: 15.1% Prior: 15.2% No Revision

So where to start. Of course there were some nice moves, however while the commodity currencies forex pairs rallied the european currencies sold off. Gold sold off while Crude rallied. We will start with the Stock Index Futures, these are actually the most reliable to trade on US news in general these days. Here is the 1 minute chart of the Emini S&P 500 Future and the DAX Future:

After the Stock Index futures the CADJPY or another Commodity Currency like Australian dollar or New Zealand versus the Japanese Yen, AUDJPY or NZDJPY. Here is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

and this is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY to show more of the move:

It is always good to keep an eye on the USDJPY, although the moves are not always so many pips. Here is the 10 second chart of the USDJPY:

and a 1 minute chart of the USDJPY to show more of the move:

So now a 30 second chart of the EURUSD will show how it moved down on the release. It did briefly run up about 30 pips but then dropped 120 pips:

In contrast to the AUDUSD which spiked up, pulled back, and kepted rallying. The GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDNOK followed the Euro by weakening against the Dollar, only the Swedish Krona escaped the sell-off in European Currencies. The NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDZAR and Asian Currencies all rallied against the US Dollar much like this Australian Dollar did in this 1 minute chart of AUDUSD:

Also here is the 1 minute chart of Gold. It was whippy initially, basically it lost some of its shine as a safe-haven when better employment in the USA meant risk appetite. Interesting to note shifting correlations, Crude Oil did rally in contrast:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - lower print brings whipsaw but resolves higher.

This afternoon of Thrusday February 2nd 2012 at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Numbers were released. This Natural Gas Future has not been following this economic figure very well recently. This is because the winter has been warmer this year, and storage of natural gas has been alot higher in general than previous winters. Also of course there is more supply due to the Natural Gas being available from phracking shale in the USA. A week or 2 ago, We got a tape bomb news trade when Chesapeake said they were going to cut back on their production because the price was too low, this was as the price of the Active Front-month Natural Gas Future was close to decade lows last seen in September 2001 after the 9/11 attacks.

Since that time the price of Natural Gas rallied a bit but again came down a bit at the end of January, but has stabilized and consolidated. So the market seems a bit more evenly balanced and news trades should start to work better. Although this was a small deviation lower, Nat Gas in the past has been very sensitive to this number. There was an initial whipsaw, but a few minutes later the price did start to rally. Lower prints mean less supply than estimated and this is usually a bullish sign. Here is the figures:

EIA Natural Gaso Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -129 Average: -128 Range: -136 to -115
Actual: -132 Prior: -192

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future. This is from a spreadbet chart so there is no decimal place:

and here is the 1 minute chart of the stock Chesapeake. It followed the EIA deviation better than the Natural Gas Future did. The Natural Gas Future tends to be very volatile, a bit like....well gas...it seems to sweep over numbers rather steadily run thru them. Perhaps this is why Chesapeake traded better as in high-leveraged Future Contract that whipsaw seen on the Natural Gas Future might have gotten ugly without enough leverage.

US ADP Employment Change - Small Deviation lower does not affect the market much

Today Wednesday 1st February 2012 at 8:15 EST (13:15 GMT) the ADP employment figures were released from the USA. There was a small deviation lower of about 12k which is not large enough to take any trade. There was also a revision to the previous month of -33k which even with the 2 added together is still not enough...something more like a 70k deviation from expectations is good although 50k can work it is not reliable. Also it is best when the deviation is for the current month, not a revision. Here are the figures:

US ADP Employment Change
Estimates: Median: 182k Average: 188k Range: 145k to 300k
Actual: 170k Prior: 325k Revised: 292k

The markets had been rallying during the european session and basically this slightly worse data was not enough to stop them. Here is a 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future which bascially went sidewise but started to pick up as the US cash equity open approached at 9:30 EST (14:30 GMT) and then continued into the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release:

Also included is a 5 minute chart of the CADJPY which shows the move from the european session into the ADP data and then on until it hit resistance at 76.50. Notice the small dip in the uptrend as the data came out:

US Chicago PMI

Today on Tuesday 31st of January 2012 at 9:45 EST (15:45 GMT ) the Chicago PMI figures were released from the USA. This economic indicator has rebounded nicely from may but today it did come out lower and actually did cause a bit of risk off. This was unexpected because in many cases the market has not reacted predictably on this news releases, even when there are significant deviations.

Here are the figures:

US Chicago PMI
Estimates: Median: 63.0 Average: 62.6 Range: 59.0 to 67.0
Actual: 60.2 Prior: 62.2 No Revision


It appears as the market waits for NFP it is content to run to the extremes intraday as the market had rallied from the New york session the previous day, thru asia and europe just to sell off again when NY opened again. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future. There is a blue line marked at 9:42 est which is where this data is released to special subscribers before the general release 3 minutes later:

This is a 10 minute chart which shows the EMini S&P 500 future rally from the day before into this news:

Next is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY. This pair usually does not move many pips but it did go in the direction of the deviations:

Now the CADJPY 30 second chart, which had a better move and follows the main stock indices like the S&P 500 very well:

However remember that there was Canadian GDP at 8:30 est about 75 minutes before this news, so the Canadian Dollar was still be affected by that. Here is a 1 minute chart of the CADJPY Forex pair which shows the whole move on the pair thru the Canadian GDP and the US Chicago PMI. Luckily the weaker Canadian GDP agreed with the lower US Chicago PMI figures both in terms of the Canadian Dollar and the risk-off price flow:

US GDP Advanced for Q4 2011 - High Expectations slight disappointment but good moves

This friday January 27th 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Advanced or 1st reading of GDP for Q4 2011 was released from the USA. The expectations for this were quite high, considering that the Final Reading for Q3 was +1.8%, to jump to +3.0% is nearly doubling growth. As the expectation was quite high some probably considered that a small miss of the expectation would not cause a major sell off, but in the end it did provide a decent move down, although later on in the session things rebounded and there was a rally into the close for the week. Alot of these was do to good headlines about a deal on the deal with PSI about a haircut on Greek Debt, that an agreement was close.

Anyway here is the data:

US GDP QoQ (Annualized) Advanced Q4 2011
Estimates- Median: +3.0% Average: +3.0% Range: +2.4% to +4.5%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.8% No Revision
US GDP Price Index
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.7% Range: +0.6% to +2.6%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +2.6% No Revision
US Core PCE QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.9% Average: +1.1% Range: +0.8% to +2.4%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: +2.1% No Revision
US Personal Consumption
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +1.2% to +3.6%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.7% No Revision

Here are some charts then, first is the Emini S&P 500 Future 1 minute chart:

Also another option for stock index futures is the DAX, or the FTSE, any major index will move with the EMini and DOW on US news. I like the DAX:

In Forex the CADJPY follows the Stock Indices quite well. Any Commodity Currency (AUD,NZD,CAD...or even ZAR or NOK probably will have to review those charts) versus the Japanese Yen will generally follow the stock indices, sometimes Canadian News comes out at the same time as US News so you have to watch out for that. This is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

Last month the USDJPY did not follow the lower print and actually moved up (only a small amount of pips). This time it did follow everything down, but normally this pair is avoided since it really doesn't move that much most of the time. Here is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY forex pair:

Actually it was risk-off across the board the USD dollar rallied as well with AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD selling off. Although the JPY did appreciate more than the USD on this risk-off move as can be seen by the USDJPY chart above. Here are 2 more charts of AUDUSD and NZDUSD, this time 5 minute chart and you can see more price action. Later on in the US Session as mentioned the deal on PSI haircuts looked close also 90 minutes after GDP the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures were released at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT). This data has rebounded nicely since some bad prints during August 2011. Now the figure is coming back up to 2 year highs. Here is that data:

US U. of Michigan Confidence
Estimates- Median: 74.0 Average: 74.3 Range: 72.5 to 76.0
Actual: 75.0 Prior: 74.0 No Revision

Finally these 2 charts are GMT+2 and also the Green line at the top is the R1 pivot, which AUDUSD tagged perfectly and sold off from, while NZDUSD overshot a bit. The Red Arrow is the release of GDP while the Blue Arrow is the release of U. of Michigan Confidence. The NZDUSD found support right on the Yellow horizontal line which is the Daily Central pivot:

EIA Natural Gas Storage - Lower Print sees only brief uptick

This Thrusday January 26th at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the Natural Gas Storage Change figures were released from the EIA. There was a lower print, which would have normally caused a big spike up in the Natural Gas futures. However Natural Gas is being driven by other factors at the moment and is not really following this data. A much warmer winter means Natural Gas storage is much higher than previous years, as well as the fact that due to phracking techniques there is now much more available in the USA.

On January 23rd Chesapeake announced they would be scaling back their Natural Gas operations as the price of Natural Gas has been trending lower and is nearly testing 10 year lows made around September 2001. This caused Natural Gas to rally and it could be a major turning point for this commodity. Despite Natural Gas selling off on a lower number, all in all the price has been moving up since the 23rd Chesapeake announcement, and should soon retest the recent highs.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -175 Average: -173 Range: -194 to -140
Actual: -192 Prior: -87 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the NQ Natural Gas Futures, this chart does not have a decimal place since it is from a spreadbettor broker:

Next is the 2 minute chart of Chesapeake which does seem to follow Natural Gas better than other energy stocks:

US Pending Home Sales - Sell the Rumor Buy the News

A half an hour after the New York Cash Stock Equity Open at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Pending Home Sales figures were released. There were some negative headlines out of Europe about Greece and Portugal later in the European mid-day which gave the risk-on sentiment a pullback. The Emini S&P 500 sold off as the 9:30 open passed and headed down in the half hour leading into the News.

This really isn't the best economic news release to trade as everyone knows that housing is generally bad anyhow. In the past we have watched the USDJPY on US news but really the EMini S&P 500, the DOW or really any of the major Stock Indices generally follow US news quite well. The USDJPY does work but usually doesn't move many pips, perhaps 10. Here the figures:

US Pending Homes Sales MoM
Estimates- Median: -1.0% Average: -0.8% Range: -8.1% to +7.0%
Actual: -3.5% Prior: +7.3% No Revision
US Pending Homes Sales YoY
Actual: +4.4% Prior: +6.9% No Revision
US Home Price Index MoM
Estimates- Median: 0.0% Average: 0.0% Range: -0.5% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.0% Prior: -0.2% Revised: -0.7%

This is not large enough deviation trade, normally something closer to +/-5.0 or more, so this was a small -2.5 deviation and as the EMini had sold off into the news there was a good chance of a bounce back on a 'less worse than it could have been' type of rebound. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 from a spreadbet broker:

If you are stuck to just trading Forex, then the CADJPY is a good pair to trade because it has a good correlation to the main stock indices, which are driven by risk-on/risk-off price flow dynamic. Here is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY forex pair: