Canada Employment Change - Big Deviation, Big Spike and Continuation - like the old days

This Thrusday afternoon, at 13:30 GMT (8:30 EST) the Employment figures were released out of Canada. This data is normally on Friday's but it is Easter tomorrow, it also is normally at 7:00 EST but the BOE was doing there Interest Rate decision at that time so it was good they moved it to the 8:30am slot. Finally also normally NFP is only 90 minutes after this data, so it was good it wasn't today because the Canadian Dollar had time to just trend and continue without any worry of NFP coming along and changing everything in terms of the US DOllar or the Japanese Yen or Risk sentiment in general.

The market had been risk off in general..bad Spanish bond auction yesterday sparked renewed concerns and the Euro extended the sell-off already instigated by the Fed Minutes on Tuesday.

Anyhow here is that Canadian Data:


Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: +10.5k Average: +13.2k Low: +5.0k High: +40.0k
Actual: +82.3k Prior: -2.8k No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +7.4% Average: +7.4% Low: +7.4% High: +7.5%
Actual: +7.2% Prior: +7.4% No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: +70.0k Prior: +9.1k

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +12.4k Prior: -12.0k

Here are some 10 second charts:

The USDJPY which has been selling off since reaching 84.00 on March 15th, did take a turn back up and thus supported further gains on CADJPY.

A rumor of a major European bank in trouble which might need to be nationalised hit the wires about 10-15 minutes after the release, this helped the sell-off in the EURCAD and also made it more difficult for the USDCAD to sell-off. But this was probably just some BS the brokers paid the news wires to send down to the retail side, and it soon washed off and EURUSD bounced back up after hitting a significant fib level at 1.3050.

As this final 1 minute chart on the USDCAD forex pair shows the move developed some good momentum which continued for about 3 hours.

Australian Employment Lower - Brisk sell-off reverses as Risk Sentiment improves

This evening of Wednesday March 7th 2012 at 19:30 EST (Thursday March 8th at 00:30 GMT) the monthly Employment figures were released from Australia. This figure can affect the price of the Australian Dollar forex pairs quite alot, but sometimes the data is delayed arriving accross the various economic news delivery platforms due the method this number is released in Australia.

Anyhow there is still opportunities here as it is still quick and often the moves are quite big so even if you miss the first 20-30 pips you can still get a chuck. Sometimes the whole move occurs in the 1st minute and then just goes flat. A few hours after going side-wise it can then continue the move or retrace.

During Wednesday the markets started to find a risk-on bid after several days of Risk-off selling pressure, pretty much since Wednesday last week on February 29th. That was the end of the month, Beranke had made his congressional testimony and there was a lower ISM data print from the USA.

So despite the bad Australian GDP yesterday, and then today's bad Employment data, the Australian dollar after of course selling off quite a bit in the intial news reaction, turned around and rallied over night as the markets turned bad to a positive risk sentiment mode. Alot of it is due to a higher level of participation in the Greek PSI Bond Swap deal.

Here is the data:

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates -> Median: 5.0k Average: 3.5k Low: -20.0k High: +17.0k
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +46.3k Revised: +46.2k

Australia Employment Change
Estimates -> Median: +5.2% Average: +5.2% Low: +5.1% High: +5.4%
Actual: +5.2% Prior: +5.1% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Actual: 0.0k Prior: +12.3k Revised: +15.3k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +34.0k Revised: +30.9k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates -> Median: 65.3% Average: 65.3% Low: 65.2% High: 65.5%
Actual: 65.2% Prior: 65.3% No Revision

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDUSD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDJPY

Here is the 30 second chart of the EURAUD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDNZD, this one is interesting because this one held the lows much longer than the other pairs, and actually continued to drop into the next day. This is important to be aware of in the context of the broader risk on/off sentiment driving the markets, coupling the right currencies against each others can offset that dynamic parameter.

Certainly if you are using the news to trade a bit longer term, this is necessary. First to be aware of the overall types of headlines driving the market moves and then to choose the right pair. Here is the same AUDNZD pair on the 5 minute time frame thru the next several hours after the release.

Here is the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD for comparison.

US ADP - Flat Print market just hiccups

Today on March 7th 2012 at 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST) the ADP figures were released from the USA. These figures are said to be a leading indicator for Friday highly anticipated NFP release. Not sure however how accurate it is at forecasting the NFP, regardless if it has a big enough deviation from expectations the market will rally. Today it was flat however and the market just did a little hiccup and then continued.

The market is awaiting the NFP on Friday and also the ECB will announce their latest Interest Rate decision tomorrow along with Mario Draghi's Press Conference. To top it off the deadline for the Greek PSI Bond Swap Deal is 8pm GMT on Thursday and the market has been reacting to headlines about the % of PSI voluntary participation in the deal. If the level is not high enough there maybe CAC (collective action clauses) invoked on those who do not accept the deal and this could trigger some CDS (Credit Default Swaps)...the whole maneuver appears specifically to be designed to get around the legal phrasing of the CDS so Greece can do some sort of orderly default without crumbling the whole house of cards which all these derivatives have built up. One thing triggering another and on and on.

Here is the data:

US ADP
Estimates -> Median: +215k Average: +211k Low: +120k High: +270k
Actual: +216k Prior: +170k Revised: +173k

About a 15 minutes later 2 smaller reports were released, these normally don't get much attention:


US Nonfarm Productivity
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.9% Low: +0.5% High: +1.6%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.7% No Revision

US Unit Labor Costs
Estimates -> Median: +1.2% Average: +1.4% Low: +0.7% High: +2.8%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.2% No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the EMini S&P 500 Future:

This is the 15 second chart of the DAX

Just to be complete here are the 1 minute charts of the USDJPY and CADJPY forex pairs, they usually are quite good at following the movement Stock Indices. You can see they just wiggled a bit when the data was released. However the Yen Crosses have been rallying hard over the past 2 weeks but took a break and retraced during the 1st half of this week. This move was due as they were quite overbought. They seemed to get some attention in and have started to bounce off these retracement levels.

Australian Employment - All good, nice spike, no follow thru in risk-off market

Last night at 00:30 GMT on February 16th 2012 (19:30 EST Feb 15th) the Employment figures were released out of Australia. Recently the Full time and Part time components have come with expectations. There have been times when the deviation on Net Employment Change has not come from Full-Time jobs which has actually gone the other way. This time all the figures lined up. There was a good strong spike, and then the start of a retracement style afterspike, however with all the risk aversion due to the further delays in coordinating the next Greek bailout, the Australian Dollar was unable to follow thru with a continued move higher.

Here is the data:

Australia Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +10.0k Average: +12.4k Range: -10.0k to +36.0k
Actual: +46.3k Prior: -29.3k Revised: -35.6k

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.3% Average: +5.3% Range: +5.2% to +5.5%
Actual: +5.1% Prior: +5.2% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: 0.0k Average: 0.0k Range: -10.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +12.3k Prior: +24.5k Revised: +24.0k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +7.5k Average: +5.8k Range: -20.0k to +20.0k
Actual: +34.0k Prior: -53.7k Revised: -59.6k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions
Actual: 383M Prior: 737M No Revision

First the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair:

Also the 1 minute chart of the AUDJPY, another good pair to trade on Australian economic news:

Also the EURAUD 5 minute chart which show that even this pair did retrace thru the asian session.

One pair which was able to hold its gains, but not make any more significant highs was the AUDNZD, here is the 5 minute chart:

UK Claimant Count Change - Small Deviation

This Wednesday morning of February 15th 2012 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Jobless Figures and Unemployment Rate were released from the UK. This figure has been tough to trade as the moves are often quite quick and can then reverse fast. Often there is a leak or rumor and the move starts before the release, only for profit taking on the release to occur which then reverses the direction of the initial spike after the release. The EURUSD has started selling off its 1.3320 highs from last week as apparently the deal on the next Greek bailout was done, but now there are more delays which seem more serious. These delays have been going on for weeks, and many are starting to say that Greece should just be allowed to default. So far most of the selling has been going on during the US session with small retracements occuring during the European morning.
Anyway that gives some backdrop to when the news was released. The BOE inflation report was due 1 hour after this data came out.

Here is the data:

UK Claimant Count Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.0% Average: +5.0% Range: +5.0% to +5.1%
Actual: +5.0% Prior: +5.0% No Revision

UK Jobless Claims Change
Estimates- Median: +3.0k Average: +3.1k Range: -5.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +6.9k Prior: +1.2k Revised: +1.9k

UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.8% Range: +1.7% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% Revised: +2.0%

UK Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.6% to +2.0%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.9% No Revision

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)
Estimates- Median: +8.4% Average: +8.4% Range: +8.4% to +8.5%
Actual: +8.4% Prior: +8.4% No Revision

As the deviation was small on the main Change figure and flat on the Rate figure the British pound mostly just chopped around....here is the 1 minute chart of the GBPUSD forex pair. The release was at 9:30 GMT as the chart is in GMT time...at 10:30 is when BOE's King started the BOE Inflation Report and there was press conference and Q&A that went on for about 1 hour:

Here is the 1 minute chart of GBPJPy from the same time

US NonFarm Payroll - Much Higher Risk-On except for European Currencies and Gold

This Friday, February 3rd 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the montly payroll data from the USA was released. This is basically an indication of the Employment Situation and is the most well known and widely watched piece of economic data known to the market. Almost every market instrument will move based on this data. If there are jobs in the USA then there will be confidence and Americans will have money in the pockets to buy stuff...whether houses from the large stock available or things fabricated in China.

Earlier in the week on Wednesday the ADP data came out slightly lower. This is a smaller sample but it gives an advanced indication of what is likely to happen with the NonFarm Payroll Number.
There are other economic data figures which attempt to gauge the employment situation in the USA. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims for instance has been coming out below 400k since December 2011. This broke the low seen in February 2011 and the number has been consistently at around 360k now. The Challenger Job Cuts was higher however, which indicates more people were laid-off from their jobs. The Employment Component of ISM Manufacturing PMI was also slightly lower, but Consumer Confidence definately has been up. Anyhow despite all these advanced readings on the day there is little you can do to predict what the NonFarm Payroll number will be unless you have special connections or something. This time there was an upward surprise. Here is the data:

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +140k Average: +146k Range: +95k to +225k
Actual: +243k Prior: +200k Revised: +203k

US Change in Private Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +160k Average: +162k Range: +110k to +250k
Actual: +257k Prior: +212k Revised: +220k

US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +12k Average: +14k Range: +9k to +25k
Actual: +50k Prior: +23k Revised: +32k

Unemployment Rates
Estimates- Median: +8.5% Average: +8.5% Range: +8.3% to +8.7%
Actual: +8.3% Prior: +8.5% No Revision

Average Hourly Earning MOM All Emp
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.1%

Average Hourly Earning YOY All Emp
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.8% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.1% No Revision

Average Weekly Hours All Employees
Estimates- Median: 34.4 Average: 34.4 Range: 34.3 to 34.5
Actual: 34.5 Prior: 34.4 Revised: 34.5

Change in Household Employment w/Pop
Actual: 847 Prior: 176 No Revision

Underemployment Rate
Actual: 15.1% Prior: 15.2% No Revision

So where to start. Of course there were some nice moves, however while the commodity currencies forex pairs rallied the european currencies sold off. Gold sold off while Crude rallied. We will start with the Stock Index Futures, these are actually the most reliable to trade on US news in general these days. Here is the 1 minute chart of the Emini S&P 500 Future and the DAX Future:

After the Stock Index futures the CADJPY or another Commodity Currency like Australian dollar or New Zealand versus the Japanese Yen, AUDJPY or NZDJPY. Here is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

and this is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY to show more of the move:

It is always good to keep an eye on the USDJPY, although the moves are not always so many pips. Here is the 10 second chart of the USDJPY:

and a 1 minute chart of the USDJPY to show more of the move:

So now a 30 second chart of the EURUSD will show how it moved down on the release. It did briefly run up about 30 pips but then dropped 120 pips:

In contrast to the AUDUSD which spiked up, pulled back, and kepted rallying. The GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDNOK followed the Euro by weakening against the Dollar, only the Swedish Krona escaped the sell-off in European Currencies. The NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDZAR and Asian Currencies all rallied against the US Dollar much like this Australian Dollar did in this 1 minute chart of AUDUSD:

Also here is the 1 minute chart of Gold. It was whippy initially, basically it lost some of its shine as a safe-haven when better employment in the USA meant risk appetite. Interesting to note shifting correlations, Crude Oil did rally in contrast:

Canadian Employment lower - leads to moderate upmove

This Friday morning of February 3rd at 12:00 GMT (7:00 EST) the Employment figures where released from Canada. Basically this used to be the best news to trade, even better than the most well known Non-Farm Payroll news. However when big variations in Full time and Part time Employment were taken into account, the Canadian Dollar forex pairs stopped reacting so well to just the Employment Net Change deviation.

Recently the Australian Employment Change figures have come with analsyt estimates for Full Time and Part Time Employment Change, this has not yet happened for the Canadian Numbers, so we have to compare this months number to the prior number. So although there was a quite significant deviation lower on the Net Employment Change figure from Canada today of -19.7, as well as a 0.1 deviation on Unemployment Rate the USDCAD did not move that much higher. In the past a deviation of this sort would move the pair at least 50-60 pips easily, if not 80. When we look at the Full Time Employment Change we see that this number improved, so the drop which caused the deviation in the Net Employment Change number came from Part Time Employment.

Here the figures:

Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: 7.5% Average: 7.5% Range: 7.4% to 7.5%
Actual: 7.6% Prior: 7.5% No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +22.0k Average: +22.2k Range: +5.0k to +45.0k
Actual: +2.3k Prior: +17.5k No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: -3.6k Prior: -25.5k No Revision

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +5.9k Prior: +43.9k No Revision

Canada Participation Rate
Estimates- Median: 66.6 Average: 66.6 Range: 66.6 to 66.6
Actual: 66.7 Prior: 66.6 No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the USDCAD forex pair. Very modest spike for such a economic news deviation:

This is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY pair:

Next is the 1 minute chart of the pair. Over the next 90 minutes the USDCAD did go on to make another high at 1.0030, making a total of about 30 pips on the move. However with Non-Farm Payrolls out at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) this move up got quickly erased. The Red Arrow is the Canadian Employment Change Release and the Green Arrow is the US Non-Farm Payroll Release:

This 2 minute chart shows how the USDCAD came off its lows during the European session and moved up about 40 pips ahead of the econonmic new release:

This 3 minute chart shows the move for the whole day, leading into the Canadian Employment Data then into the US Non-Farm Payroll to finish the week:

This 1 minute chart shows the CADJPY move thru the Canadian Employment into the US Non-Farm Payroll:

German Unemployment - Leaked Perhaps but good follow thru

This morning at 3:55 EST (8:55 GMT) the Unemployment data from Germany was released. It was a better print and with last night's agreement of Eurozone members at their latest meeting and also reports of a increased take-up by european banks of the next LTRO, the markets have been risk on.

Here is the data:

Germany Unemployment Change
Estimates- Median: -10k Average: -9k Range: -30k to +10k
Actual: -34k Prior: -22k Revised: -25k
Germany Unemployment Rates (s.a)
Estimates- Median: 6.8% Average: 6.8% Range: 6.6% to 6.9%
Actual: 6.7% Prior: 6.8% No Revision

The German DAX stock index had been selling off during the beginning of the european session, while the commodity currencies were rallying and the EURUSD and GBPUSD where holding near their swing highs for the overnight asian session.

Here is a 1 minute chart of the DAX, notice how it started rallying 3 minutes before the actual release:

Next is the 10 second chart of the EURUSD, the pair took out its swing highs from the Asian Session just below the 1.3200 round figure handle, making a swing low heading into 8:55 gmt:

Also the 5 minute chart of the EURUSD to show a bit more perspective of the overnight move leading into the European session:

US CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits & Initial Jobless Claims - mixed reading forms a top

Today on Thursday January 19th at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Consumer Price Inflation figures were released from the USA. This also came out with a bunch of other data such as Housing Starts, Building Permits and the weekly Jobless data, the Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims. So there was alot of data to go through was it was quite difficult to get a clear trade based on the numbers. The CPI was flat, the Housing Numbers were weaker but the Initial Jobless Claims made a new low, breaking December 2011 low which had just broken the late February 2011 low. Last week this number did rebound to 399k, a higher number being bad in this case, but then this week it came back down. This 'much better than xx months/ x years' type headline seemed to steal the limelight, everyone knows that Housing is bad anyhow, but if employment is better then the economy has a better chance of recovery. The morning had been pretty risk-on with good earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of American, both those stocks jumped over 6%. Here is the data:

US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.1% to +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% No Revision

US Headline CPI m/m
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.1% to +0.3%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: 0.0% No Revision

US Core CPI y/y
Estimates- Median: +2.2% Average: +2.2% Range: +2.0% to +2.3%
Actual: +2.2% Prior: +2.2% No Revision

US Headline CPI y/y
Estimates- Median: +3.0% Average: +3.0% Range: +2.9% to +3.2%
Actual: +3.0% Prior: +3.4% No Revision

US Housing Starts
Estimates- Median: 680k Average: +682k Range: +625k to +723k
Actual: +657k Prior: +685k No Revision

US Housing Starts MOM%
Estimates- Median: -0.7% Average: -0.5% Range: -8.8% to +5.6%
Actual: -4.1% Prior: +9.3% Revised: +9.1%

US Building Permits
Estimates- Median: +679k Average: +680k Range: +640k to +728k
Actual: +679k Prior: +681k Revised: +680k

US Building Permits MOM%
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: 0.0% Range: -5.9% to +7.1%
Actual: -0.1% Prior: +5.7% Revised: +5.6%

US Initial Jobless Claims
Estimates- Median: +384k Average: +383k Range: +363k to +405k
Actual: +352k Prior: +399k Revised: +402k

US Continuing Claims
Estimates- Median: +3590k Average: +3577k Range: +3500k to +3630k
Actual: +3432k Prior: +3628k Revised: +3647k

So 1st chart is the EMini S&P 500 future 1 minute chart which basically show a whipsaw as the market digested the positive and negative aspects of the data:

Next is the USDJPY 1 minute chart which after a little whiggle did catch a bid, this one is the safest forex pair to trade on USA news but it doesn't always move that many pips:

finally is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY, this one usually follows the stock indices quite well and when good US data gives a boost to risk appetite this one can rally. However inflation is difficult these days. In the past high CPI meant that the Fed would more likely to raise interest rates which would strengthen a currency, however sometimes the stock market would not like higher rates. In the current economic situation however, high CPI means the Fed is less likely to do more Quantitative Easing and the market will rally if there is more QE but the US dollar will weaken.

Australian Employment - Significant Lower Drop on Change but Rate conflict

This evening of January 18th at 19:30 EST and well 00:33 on January 19th in GMT land, the Employment figures for Australia were released. What was interesting about this release was for the first time Bloomberg included Estimates for Full Time & Part Time Employment Change. In past months we only got the prior months figure. This is important because since May 2011 there we have seen how the price reaction of the Australian Dollar can be influeced on whether the main Net Employment Change figure is composed of growth or contraction due to Part-time or Fulltime growth or decline. Obviously an increase in Employment change due to Parttime jobs is less great than if the increase comes from Full-time Jobs...Likewise if a drop in Net Employment Change is due to a loss in Part-time Jobs but Full-time Jobs actually grew then this is not so bearish, as it was only a matter of there being more loss of Part-time Jobs than growth of Full-time Jobs. This situation has confused many news traders who did not see the Part-time and Full-time break down.

Anyway now we got estimates, although there are only 8 analysts providing estimates for Part-time and Full-Time Employment change while there are 23 analysts providing surveys for the main Net Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

There was a big drop in Employment Change, very bearish for Aussie Dollar, but the Unemployment Rate was also lower, which is good. Part-time Change dropped by -45k while Full-time Change actually grew by +5.7k, so basically a conflict. AUDUSD reacted to the dip in the Net Change and also a deviation of just -0.1 is not very significant for Unemployment Rate, but the drop in the Change figure is quite big.

Anyway here are the figures:


AU Employment Change
EStimates- Median: +10.0k Actual: +7.6k Range: -10.0k to +25.2k
Actual: -29.3k Prior: -6.3k Revised: -7.5k

AU Unemployment Rate
EStimates- Median: 5.3% Actual: 5.3% Range: 5.2% to 5.4%
Actual: 5.2% Prior: 5.3% Revised: 5.2%

AU Fulltime Employment Change
EStimates- Median: +18.8k Actual: +17.5k Range: -5.0k to +40.0k
Actual: +24.5k Prior: -39.9k Revised: -39.4k

AU Parttime Employment Change
EStimates- Median: -8.8k Average: -6.8k Range: -35.0k to +20.0k
Actual: -53.7k Prior: +33.6k Revised: +31.9k

AU Participation Rate
EStimates- Median: 65.5% Actual: 65.5% Range: 65.4% to 65.6%
Actual: 65.2% Prior: 65.5% No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the AUDUSD pair...it dropped quite steeply in the intial reaction, about 50 pips, but then bounced 30 pips back up as the Unemployment rate conflicted. Also the way this data is released from Australia means this one often comes out slow with the different constituents trickling out rather than all arriving thru the wire at the same time...I have heard that the data comes thru a voice on the phone and has to be transfer into text data for transmission over the wires...seriously in the 21st century?

Finally a 5 minute chart of the move thru the asian session into the European open where the 61% fib of the move down did provide a little bounce, but later in the session some good results from Bank or America and Morgan Stanley brought some risk-on sentiment and the audusd forex pair rallied more:

UK Jobless Claims Change & Claimant Count Rate - Lower than Expected by a little bit

This morning of January 18th 2012 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Claimant Count Change or Jobless Claims Change (not sure if they changed the name of this report) came out. Basically it is the employment data for the UK. We have seen this figure cause only a brief move and then reverse in November and December, and also in November there appeared to be some leak of the data, or at least a rumor that brought strong flow of buying of Pound Sterling before the official release by a UK clearer on the bid, moving the GBPUSD forex pair up 50-60 pips heading into the release. So we were on the look-out for any strong flows in cable today, but were looking for at least a deviation of +/- 15k above or below the expected number of 7k to take a trade. The Pound did appear to be weakening into the release, so we did widen out our sell trigger and tighten the buy trigger, but still the deviation was not enough. A lower number is better because it means lower number of unemployed and the GBPUSD (Pound Sterling versus US Dollar Forex Pair) will usually rally.

Here is the data:



UK Jobless Claims Change
Estimates- Median: +7.0k Average: +6.7k Range: +0.4k to +11.0k
Actual: +1.2k Prior: +3.0k Revision: +0.2k

UK Claimant Count Rate
Estimates- Median: 5.0% Average: 5.0% Range: 4.9% to 5.1%
Actual: 5.0% Prior: 5.0% No Revision

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3mnts
Estimates- Median: 8.3% Average: 8.3% Range: 8.2% to 8.4%
Actual: 8.4% Prior: 8.3% No Revision

UK Avg Weekly Earnings 3mnths
Estimates- Median: +2.0% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.7% to +2.1%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.0% Revision: +2.1%

UK Weekly Earnings exBonus 3mths
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.7% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +1.8% No Revision

Here is a 30 second chart of the GBPUSD forex pair which shows the half hour leading into the news and the pair retraced some of the gains achieved earlier in the session. This was while EURUSD and AUDUSD were still at their highs for the day. Also the EURGBP was making new highs for the day at 0.8330 and GBPCHF was at its lows.

Nothing particularily fundamental was driving the rally in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc into the 8am GMT European Cash Equity Open, other than talk of Russian & Mid-Eastern on the Bid but the Bank of India on the offer at the highs into the open, and then things did soon sold off after the top of the hour, with talk of a 2 notch downgrade for Italy from Fitch...clever Indians. But then Russian and Asian names came back in buying indeed a crazy old day, and this continued after the UK news, helping the GBPUSD rally as well as the EURUSD...first Fitch came back and clarified despite their earlier comment of a 2-notch downgrade Italy would not default but then more importantly the IMF would be getting more Money, which of course means more to bail out debt burdened countries. Is this good? Well the EURUSD liked it and regained its earlier highs.

Included below is a 5 minute chart of the GBPUSD with some important levels on it. As we can see where the thin Red arrow is where the UK Jobless Claims Change and Claimant Count Rate were released. The GBPUSD forex pair was sitting right on the 38% fibonacci of last week's 1.5500 to 1.5233 range. So it did move up off this, but it was a crazy day with lots of ups and downs, in fact during the european session the EURUSD was making an expanding triangle pattern but eventually the gains started to stick, even with the USA open (they have been selling the EURUSD on queue as soon as their session starts until it ends for weeks now). Also very interesting is after maybe 2 weeks of GBPUSD being the laggard, today it actually lead the gains, reaching new highs before the AUDUSD or EURUSD and having shallower pullbacks.

US ADP Employment Change - much higher deviation leads to nice spike

A very big upward deviation on the ADP Employment Change from the USA released today at 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST). This sets up the big data for Friday, the Non-Farm Payroll to come out higher. There was nice rallies on the EMini S&P 500 and the Yen Crosses as a little bid came back into risky assets after the battering they had taken during the European morning as the European Banking sector got hit on fears about Italy's Unicredit and Deutsche Bank.

This was followed 15 minutes later by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims from the USA. This figure did make a new low for 2011 on December 15th of 366k, which broke the low from late February and shows that unemployment is slowing in the USA. There is also a weekly Continuing Claims number released at the same time slot at half past. Today's Initial Jobless Claims figure did not break the December 15th 366k low but it did stay below the important 400k level.

Here are the figures:

US ADP Employment MoM
Estimates: Median +178k Average +177k Range +125k to +230k (150-200 most)
Actual: +325k Prior: +206k Revised: +204k

US Initial Jobless Claims WoW
Estimates: Median +375k Average +377k Range +365k to +390k
Actual: +372k Prior: +381k Revised: +387k

US Continuing Claims WoW
Estimates: Median +3570k Average +3567k Range +3500k to +3650k
Actual: +3595k Prior: +3601k Revised: +3617k

First chart is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future, a good 6 point (24 tick) move:

Next a 30 second chart of the USDJPY, although not so many pips a solid move, notice the move accelerates further after the Initial jobless claims release 15 minutes later:

Finally a 10 second chart of the CADJPY which had a nice spike in reaction to the large positive deviation seen on the US Monthly ADP figure release, and mirroring the move seen in the EMini S&P:

Australian Employment - Lower but data slow over the wires

Australian Employment figures were lower last night December 7th 2011 at 19:30 EST.

Net Employment Change -6.3k versus 10.0k expected, prior month revised from 10.1k to 16.8k
Unemployment Rate 5.3% versus 5.2% expected
Full Time Employment Change -39.9k versus +20.0k last month, prior month revised from +20.0k to +26.2k
Part Time Employment Change +33.6k versus -9.9k last month, prior month revised from -9.9k to -9.5k

Australian Data is usually transmitting first by phone to the major data providers then shot thru the wires around the world, so it can come down in bits and pieces and often the move can happen before all the data has come thru. Alot of times the full move occurs all in the initial blip and can run sidewise for 1-2 hours after, sometimes then forming a trend thru the rest of the session.
Last night however it reversed off the 50% retracement of the late July high of 1.1080 to the early October low of 0.9385...this 50% retracement sits at 1.0234 and has been an important pivot in recent price action.

Here is the 5sec chart, there were new lows being made 10 minutes after the report, so there were chances to take a few short scalps if catching the spike was impossible due to the late data.

This 5 minute chart shows the 1.0235 low where that 50% fib was and created the bottom which the aussie reversed off.