Australian Employment Lower - Brisk sell-off reverses as Risk Sentiment improves

This evening of Wednesday March 7th 2012 at 19:30 EST (Thursday March 8th at 00:30 GMT) the monthly Employment figures were released from Australia. This figure can affect the price of the Australian Dollar forex pairs quite alot, but sometimes the data is delayed arriving accross the various economic news delivery platforms due the method this number is released in Australia.

Anyhow there is still opportunities here as it is still quick and often the moves are quite big so even if you miss the first 20-30 pips you can still get a chuck. Sometimes the whole move occurs in the 1st minute and then just goes flat. A few hours after going side-wise it can then continue the move or retrace.

During Wednesday the markets started to find a risk-on bid after several days of Risk-off selling pressure, pretty much since Wednesday last week on February 29th. That was the end of the month, Beranke had made his congressional testimony and there was a lower ISM data print from the USA.

So despite the bad Australian GDP yesterday, and then today's bad Employment data, the Australian dollar after of course selling off quite a bit in the intial news reaction, turned around and rallied over night as the markets turned bad to a positive risk sentiment mode. Alot of it is due to a higher level of participation in the Greek PSI Bond Swap deal.

Here is the data:

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates -> Median: 5.0k Average: 3.5k Low: -20.0k High: +17.0k
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +46.3k Revised: +46.2k

Australia Employment Change
Estimates -> Median: +5.2% Average: +5.2% Low: +5.1% High: +5.4%
Actual: +5.2% Prior: +5.1% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Actual: 0.0k Prior: +12.3k Revised: +15.3k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Actual: -15.4k Prior: +34.0k Revised: +30.9k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates -> Median: 65.3% Average: 65.3% Low: 65.2% High: 65.5%
Actual: 65.2% Prior: 65.3% No Revision

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDUSD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDJPY

Here is the 30 second chart of the EURAUD

This is the 30 second chart of the AUDNZD, this one is interesting because this one held the lows much longer than the other pairs, and actually continued to drop into the next day. This is important to be aware of in the context of the broader risk on/off sentiment driving the markets, coupling the right currencies against each others can offset that dynamic parameter.

Certainly if you are using the news to trade a bit longer term, this is necessary. First to be aware of the overall types of headlines driving the market moves and then to choose the right pair. Here is the same AUDNZD pair on the 5 minute time frame thru the next several hours after the release.

Here is the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD for comparison.

Australia GDP - much lower than expected sharp Australian Dollar sell off

Last night at 17:30 EST on March 6th 2012 (00:30 GMT on March 7th) and technically the morning on March 7th in Australia where the data was released, the quarterly GDP figures were release for Australia. This data only comes out once a quarter and thus it is usually a good news event to trade because there is a big likelyhood for a surprise, unlike the GDP from the UK where prelimin, advance and final releases make things rather predictable.

This data came out much lower, and the Australian Dollar fell quite sharply. The pair is really the darling currency because it has one of the best yields of any of the developed economies. The fall was rather brief however and by the start of the European session the pair had mostly regained the loss.

Here is the data:


Australia GDP (QoQ)
Estimates -> Median: +0.8% Average: +0.8% Low: +0.4% High: +1.1%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +1.0% Revised: +0.8%

Australia GDP (YoY)
Estimates -> Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Low: +2.1% High: +2.8%
Actual: +2.3% Prior: +2.5% Revised: +2.6%

Here are the 30 second charts of the AUDUSD, AUDJPY and EURAUD forex pairs which show the reaction in price after the deviation caused a surprise against what was expected from my analysts.

Australia RBA Cash Target - AUDUSD Drops on RBA statement of possible further easing

Last night Monday February 5th 2012 at 22:30 EST (03:30 GMT on Tuesday February 6th) the RBA made their decision on hold Interest Rates steady at 4.25%. This was expected by all analysts unlike last month where all but 3 of the 27 surveyed by Bloomberg expected a cut. The Australian Economy seems to be holding up well enough, despite a small slowdown in China, however the RBA is watching affairs unfold in Europe and is aware that this will affect the global economy and expressed their intention to lower rates if things get worse.

Here is a link to their Statements

So the market took this as a cue that the next move from the RBA could still be a cut and thus the Australian Dollar Forex pairs fell.

Here is a 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair:

and this is the 1 minute chart of the AUDJPY forex pair

Australian Employment - All good, nice spike, no follow thru in risk-off market

Last night at 00:30 GMT on February 16th 2012 (19:30 EST Feb 15th) the Employment figures were released out of Australia. Recently the Full time and Part time components have come with expectations. There have been times when the deviation on Net Employment Change has not come from Full-Time jobs which has actually gone the other way. This time all the figures lined up. There was a good strong spike, and then the start of a retracement style afterspike, however with all the risk aversion due to the further delays in coordinating the next Greek bailout, the Australian Dollar was unable to follow thru with a continued move higher.

Here is the data:

Australia Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +10.0k Average: +12.4k Range: -10.0k to +36.0k
Actual: +46.3k Prior: -29.3k Revised: -35.6k

Australia Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +5.3% Average: +5.3% Range: +5.2% to +5.5%
Actual: +5.1% Prior: +5.2% No Revision

Australia Full Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: 0.0k Average: 0.0k Range: -10.0k to +10.0k
Actual: +12.3k Prior: +24.5k Revised: +24.0k

Australia Part Time Employment Change
Estimates- Median: +7.5k Average: +5.8k Range: -20.0k to +20.0k
Actual: +34.0k Prior: -53.7k Revised: -59.6k

Australia Participation Rates
Estimates- Median: +1500k Average: +1062k Range: -1500k to +2700k
Actual: -171k Prior: +304k No Revision

Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions
Actual: 383M Prior: 737M No Revision

First the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair:

Also the 1 minute chart of the AUDJPY, another good pair to trade on Australian economic news:

Also the EURAUD 5 minute chart which show that even this pair did retrace thru the asian session.

One pair which was able to hold its gains, but not make any more significant highs was the AUDNZD, here is the 5 minute chart:

Chinese Imports Much Lower - Australian Dollar Sells off

Overnight during the Asian Session on Febrary 9th 2012 at 22:04 EST(February 10th 2012 at 3:04 GMT) the Trade Balance, Imports and Exports data was released from China. It generally had lower estimates but the Import data came out much lower than expectations. As Australia sells alot of commodities to China the Australian Dollar sold off.

Here is the data:

China Exports YoY%
Estimates- Median: -1.4% Average: -0.2% Range: -10.0% to +8.4%
Actual: -0.5% Prior: +13.4% No Revision

China Imports YoY%
Estimates- Median: -3.6% Average: -2.4% Range: -14.0% to +11.0%
Actual: -15.3% Prior: +11.8% No Revision

China Trade Balance (USD)
Estimates- Median: $10.40B Average: $9.77B Range: -$0.43B to +$21.30B
Actual: +27.28B Prior: +$16.52B No Revision

Here is the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair. The move lower actually started about 23:00 GMT or 18:00 EST just ahead of the Tokyo open, so there may have been some anticipation of this. After the data was released the pair sold off another 60-70 pips:

Here is a 1 hour chart of the EURAUD trade. Going short this pair is the Carry Trade of choice at the moment, because of problems in Europe and still better interest rates in Australia of 4.25%. Europe is just 1% but even though there is lower interest rates elsewhere this gives extra appreciation due to the European Soverign Debt Crisis.

Although this retacement looks quite good if you look at the Daily Chart you see that this is only a shallow retracement relative to the longer term:

Australia RBA Cash Target - Unexpectedly Hold Rates lead to rally in AUDUSD

Last night February 6th at 21:30 EST (02:30 GMT on February 7th) the RBA released their Interest Rate decision. Out of the 27 analyst estimates only 3 expected the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.25%. The other 24 expected them to cut 25 basis points to 4.00%. They surprised the market by not cutting interest rates and instead holding rates steady at 4.25%. The AUDUSD forex pair rallied over 120 pips on the news. Other Australian Dollar pairs: AUDJPY, EURAUD has similar gains.

The past 2 meetings the RBA has cut rates by 25 basis points each meeting. The analysts were roughly split in estimating they would do these cuts each time with about half predicting a cut and the other half predicting the RBA to hold. This time nearly all the analysts jumped on the band wagon and predicted a cut. However these predictions were quite backward looking as since the last FOMC meeting on January 25th 2012 and the NFP on this past friday, market sentiment has in general been alot better. An article appeared from Sydney Morning Herald just before Sunday night's Retail Sales report about the likelihood of a RBA rate cut diminishing, however no analysts modified their expectations over the next day before the RBA announcement.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD:

Here the 5 minute charts of AUDUSD and EURAUD. EURAUD dropped on the news but during the European Session some positive developments on situation in Greece turned the pair aroung. The AUDJPY got a further lift when the Japanese Yen started to weaken through out the day:

Australian Trade Balance & Building Approvals - Nice Move up to retest earlier highs

Tonight on 1st Febrary at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT Feb 2nd) the Trade Balance figures were released out of Australia. Although the deviaiton was not that big the AUDUSD reacted very nicely. It appears this news is in focus, perhaps it indicates growth in Asia which the market is concerned about since there is a worry china might not have such a soft landing as hoped and their GDP is at 8.9% after being above 10%. Australia provides alot of raw materials to china so this one is an important forward looking indicator for china. Also released at the same time was Building Approvals, not so sure this one is so important as it did come out lower but still the AUDUSD rallied nicely for +45 pips to retest the highs set earlier during the New York Session.

Here is the figures:


Australia Trade Balance
Estimates- Median: 1200M Average: 1301M Range: 500M to 2000M
Actual: 1709M Prior: 1380M Revised: 1343M

Australia Building Approvals (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +2.0% Average: +2.1% Range: -5.0% to +10.0%
Actual: -1.0% Prior: +8.4% Revised: +10.1%

Australia Building Approvals (YoY)
Estimates- Median: -22.1% Average: -22.4% Range: -27.0% to -18.9%
Actual: -24.5% Prior: -18.9% Revised: -17.5%

Here is a 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD, the blue arrow shows the time of the release, it does appear like a bit of movement started 2-3 minutes beforehand:

Here is a 5 minute chart of the former highs from the New York session being broken by the run up caused from the news. The sell off from the highs occurred when expectations for an agreement on the Greek PSI moved from hours to days to sometime next week:

Australian CPI - Conflict causes whipsaw which resolves higher

This Tuesday evening of January 24th at 19:30 EST (or 00:30 GMT on January 25th) the CPI figures were released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is released quarterly like it is for New Zealand and unlike the USA or UK where it comes out monthly. Probably because it is only quarterly it seems to move the price of the Australian Dollar quite a bit. This data did become a bit tricky starting in 2008 when it split up into 3 sets of data with the Headline, Trimmed Mean and Weighted Mean. So 6 figures plus there revisions makes alot of numbers to look at. The past few releases all these have lined up more or less. In october the Headline was flat as expected, but the positive deviations on Trimmed & Weighted Mean lead to a rally in AUDUSD forex pair. This time we saw a -0.2 on the Headline and positive deviations on Trimmed Mean.

Here are the figures:

Australia Consumer Prices QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.2% to +0.5%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

Australia Consumer Prices YoY
Estimates- Median: +3.3% Average: +3.2% Range: +2.8% to +3.6%
Actual: +3.1% Prior: +3.5% No Revision

Australia RBA Timmed Mean QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: +0.2% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.3% Revised: +0.4%

Australia RBA Timmed Mean YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +2.1% to +2.6%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.3% Revised: +2.4%

Australia RBA Weighted Mean QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: +0.2% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.3% Revised: +0.4%

Australia RBA Weighted Mean YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +2.1% to +2.6%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.6% Revised: +2.7%

The AUDUSD forex pair initially spiked down on the lower deviation on the Headline figure but then whipped around back higher on the better Trimmed Mean, there were also downward revisions. This seems to indicate that Trimmed mean is more important. Here is the a 5 second chart of the move on AUDUSD:

Basically the market probably expected a lower CPI figure to give the RBA move room to cut rates in February as most analyst now expect, this mixed CPI figure brings some doubt now to the likelyhood of that outcome. Here is a 30 second chart to show the way the AUDUSD forex pair resolved higher:

Finally the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair shows how it came up to test the R1 pivot thru the asian session, bounced off, retested and slightly broke the former highs during the European Session before moving down on bad headlines about Greece & Portugal later in the European morning:

Australian Employment - Significant Lower Drop on Change but Rate conflict

This evening of January 18th at 19:30 EST and well 00:33 on January 19th in GMT land, the Employment figures for Australia were released. What was interesting about this release was for the first time Bloomberg included Estimates for Full Time & Part Time Employment Change. In past months we only got the prior months figure. This is important because since May 2011 there we have seen how the price reaction of the Australian Dollar can be influeced on whether the main Net Employment Change figure is composed of growth or contraction due to Part-time or Fulltime growth or decline. Obviously an increase in Employment change due to Parttime jobs is less great than if the increase comes from Full-time Jobs...Likewise if a drop in Net Employment Change is due to a loss in Part-time Jobs but Full-time Jobs actually grew then this is not so bearish, as it was only a matter of there being more loss of Part-time Jobs than growth of Full-time Jobs. This situation has confused many news traders who did not see the Part-time and Full-time break down.

Anyway now we got estimates, although there are only 8 analysts providing estimates for Part-time and Full-Time Employment change while there are 23 analysts providing surveys for the main Net Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

There was a big drop in Employment Change, very bearish for Aussie Dollar, but the Unemployment Rate was also lower, which is good. Part-time Change dropped by -45k while Full-time Change actually grew by +5.7k, so basically a conflict. AUDUSD reacted to the dip in the Net Change and also a deviation of just -0.1 is not very significant for Unemployment Rate, but the drop in the Change figure is quite big.

Anyway here are the figures:


AU Employment Change
EStimates- Median: +10.0k Actual: +7.6k Range: -10.0k to +25.2k
Actual: -29.3k Prior: -6.3k Revised: -7.5k

AU Unemployment Rate
EStimates- Median: 5.3% Actual: 5.3% Range: 5.2% to 5.4%
Actual: 5.2% Prior: 5.3% Revised: 5.2%

AU Fulltime Employment Change
EStimates- Median: +18.8k Actual: +17.5k Range: -5.0k to +40.0k
Actual: +24.5k Prior: -39.9k Revised: -39.4k

AU Parttime Employment Change
EStimates- Median: -8.8k Average: -6.8k Range: -35.0k to +20.0k
Actual: -53.7k Prior: +33.6k Revised: +31.9k

AU Participation Rate
EStimates- Median: 65.5% Actual: 65.5% Range: 65.4% to 65.6%
Actual: 65.2% Prior: 65.5% No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the AUDUSD pair...it dropped quite steeply in the intial reaction, about 50 pips, but then bounced 30 pips back up as the Unemployment rate conflicted. Also the way this data is released from Australia means this one often comes out slow with the different constituents trickling out rather than all arriving thru the wire at the same time...I have heard that the data comes thru a voice on the phone and has to be transfer into text data for transmission over the wires...seriously in the 21st century?

Finally a 5 minute chart of the move thru the asian session into the European open where the 61% fib of the move down did provide a little bounce, but later in the session some good results from Bank or America and Morgan Stanley brought some risk-on sentiment and the audusd forex pair rallied more:

Higher Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production leads to Broad Rally in markets

Overnight at 2am GMT (9pm EST Jan 16th 2012) a bunch of figures were expected from China. There has been some worries that China would start to contract and this would not a good development with a debt crisis in Europe. About 10 or 11 minutes before the release the Xinhua news agency released the GDP data before it came out over the wire. There were also Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers, all of which came out as expected or higher. This has at least for now pushed away fears of a contraction in China although the GDP is lower for the 10% it was in 2010 and approx. 9.5% area thru most of 2011.

Here are the figures:


China Industrial Production YTD YoY
Estimates: Median +13.8% Average +13.8% Range +13.8% to +13.9%
Actual: +13.9% Prior: +14.0% No Revisions

China Industrial Production (YoY)
Estimates: Median +12.3% Average +12.4% Range +11.8% to +13.6%
Actual: +12.8% Prior: +12.4% No Revisions

China Real GDP YTD (YoY)
Estimates: Median +9.2% Average +9.2% Range +8.9% to +9.4%
Actual: +9.2% Prior: +9.4% No Revisions

China Real GDP (QoQ)
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +2.3% No Revisions

China Real GDP (YoY)
Estimates: Median +8.7% Average +8.8% Range +8.5% to +10.2%
Actual: +8.9% Prior: +9.1% No Revisions

China Retail Sales YTD YoY

Estimates: Median +17.0% Average +17.0% Range +17.0% to +17.1%
Actual: +17.1% Prior: +17.0% No Revisions

China Retail Sales (YoY)

Estimates: Median +17.2% Average +17.3% Range +16.2% to +17.1%
Actual: +17.1% Prior: +17.0% No Revisions

China Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rual YTD YoY

Estimates: Median +24.1% Average +24.0% Range +24.4% to +24.4%
Actual: +23.8% Prior: +24.5% No Revisions

The Australian Dollar is the best pair to trade on Chinese news due to the fact that Australia is a major trading partner and supplies China with alot of Raw Materials required for production of goods. Here is the first chart of the AUDUSD 1 minute which shows the reaction to the release. Notice that the move started 10 minute before the official 9pm EST release...it then chopped for awhile before leading on to rally further as the middle east and then Europe woke up and arrived at their trading desks.

and here is a 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD which shows some Key Levels from the lead into the Tokyo Open on January 17th 2012...it bounced off the 1.0300 round figure which was Daily Central Pivot (Yellow Line at the bottom of the chart)...the AUDUSD forex pair then moved back up to the 1.0336 area where the turquoise line is. This is the 61% fibonacci retracement of the October 27th high of 1.0652 to the November 23rd low of 0.9663. This level had been tested during the Monday January 16th 2012 trading session and bounced off it back to the 1.0300 round figure. When the Xinhua News Agency announced the GDP figures 10 minutes early this fib aread was broken and the pair pierced the R1 Daily Pivot as the figures hit the main wires at 9pm...this Pivot did stall the pair for awhile until more bids came in 20 minutes after the release, moving it to the R2 Pivot which it overshot with a strong candle but did fold over a bit until more bids came in to take it over the 1.0400 handle, this time with the R2 Pivot supporting the pair from below, giving it the foundation to lead the assault on cracking the 1.0400 figure. Europe opened and the pair tagged the 1.0433 area which is the 61% of the larger swing of the July 27th high of 1.1080 to the October 4th 0.9387 as German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved and not bad Bond auctions from Spain, Greece and Belgium occurred. More detail on ZEW in next post.

Australian Employment - Lower but data slow over the wires

Australian Employment figures were lower last night December 7th 2011 at 19:30 EST.

Net Employment Change -6.3k versus 10.0k expected, prior month revised from 10.1k to 16.8k
Unemployment Rate 5.3% versus 5.2% expected
Full Time Employment Change -39.9k versus +20.0k last month, prior month revised from +20.0k to +26.2k
Part Time Employment Change +33.6k versus -9.9k last month, prior month revised from -9.9k to -9.5k

Australian Data is usually transmitting first by phone to the major data providers then shot thru the wires around the world, so it can come down in bits and pieces and often the move can happen before all the data has come thru. Alot of times the full move occurs all in the initial blip and can run sidewise for 1-2 hours after, sometimes then forming a trend thru the rest of the session.
Last night however it reversed off the 50% retracement of the late July high of 1.1080 to the early October low of 0.9385...this 50% retracement sits at 1.0234 and has been an important pivot in recent price action.

Here is the 5sec chart, there were new lows being made 10 minutes after the report, so there were chances to take a few short scalps if catching the spike was impossible due to the late data.

This 5 minute chart shows the 1.0235 low where that 50% fib was and created the bottom which the aussie reversed off.

Australian GDP - positive deviation leads to pop higher and then trend

Australian GDP is released only quarterly and has a good reaction to price. There are some issues with Australian data in terms of the way it is released. Apparently only the Interest Rates are released electronically while the other data is at first transmitted by phone so various news services pick it up at slightly different times.

Tonight's q/q data came out at +1.0% above the +0.8% expect and thus a +0.2 deviation above the median expectation. The previous quarter's release was also revised up from +1.2% to +1.4% so again a positive deviation. This is all for the quarterly figures.

There was also y/y numbers which were also higher coming out at +2.5% above the +1.9% median expectation for a +0.6 deviation higher. Also the previous month was revised from +1.4% to +1.9 for a +0.5 deviation.

First the 1 minute chart shows how the initial reaction all came in the 1st minute, then things went sidewise for over 90 minutes.

then after a pullback to the 61% fibonacci level of the initial news release reaction spike, price again turned to the upside to rally further. Here is the 5 minute. The price action was very similar to the September release, only with the exception that this time there was more of a pullback over 3 hours after the release before things further rallied, but again profit taking did occur an hour or so after the London open, just like September.

Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision

The 25 analysts polled on Bloomberg roughly half expected the Royal Bank of Australia - the RBA to cut rates 25 basis points to 4.25%, while the remaining half expected the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.5%

This setup a situation where there was a guarenteed move, since the 50% expectation of a cut had been priced into the market, so if they held rates steady some of that priced in cut would unwind and the Australian Dollar would rally.

Anyway they did go ahead and cut, and the Aussie Dollar sold off. This makes 2 cuts of 25 basis points in a row. The RBA is mostly doing this in response to the slowdown of the global economy as a whole, which is mostly being created by the Eurozone Debt Crisis which impacts business all around the globe.

RBA Unexpected Raises Interest Rates to 4.75%

At 3:30 am UK time and 11:30 EST the RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) hiked rates again. This was largely unexpected with 17 out of the 23 economists predicting the RBA to hold and only 6 expecting them to hike, but hike they did to 4.75% interest rate, and an instant 100 pip move occurred in the 1st minute after the release. Many traders in the ProfitMongers room earned a great amount of pips trading the spike using the Secret News Weapon trading forex futures and spot fx. There was also an afterspike opportunity which created about +15 pips, but after such a move, especially during the asian session, price action just consolidated.

A few hours later european traders started waking up to see the news, a nice trade setup occurred about 15 minutes before the London open. We took advantage of this trading opportunity in the live trade room, going long the AUDUSD at 0.9983 and taking profit above parity at around 1.0010. Did hold some in case of a further move but as other bad news hit the pound it caused the USD to appreciate versus the rest of the pairs, so the rest was out at breakeven.

Australian Retail Sales

I have not been so impressed with this news indicator, however the past 2 months have seen it turn around. Possibly now that there is less fear in the markets, traders are again looking at the data. Back in August a -1.4 deviation from the expected number (0.5 exp -1.4 actual) caused a quick blip down and retraced well past the pre-release price: Click here for chart

However then in September a -1.5 deviation gave a nice spike, small retrace and a continued move down, very nice trading. View Chart

Then last month a tiny +0.4 deviation gave a nice spike, then went flat, but again then continued. Of course we cannot forget the prevaling trend and sentiment in the AUD during that period. See chart


So I decide to follow with a 0.4 deviation from the expected number of 0.5, so 0.9 or great I would buy, and 0.1 of less I would sell. This month we also had the quarterly numbers which should not conflict with the month on month number. There was a conflict , the m/m was -0.7 and the q/q was +0.1, however the q/q numbers were slightly delayed, so the market had a good reaction down on the m/m number. But it was a fast initial spike down and I could not get out at the bottom before it started to bounce, so I missed about 15 more pips, but still I got 40 pips so I was happpy