Showing posts with label London Open. Show all posts
Showing posts with label London Open. Show all posts

Friday, January 20, 2012

UK Retail Sales - Mixed with lower revisions to previous month

This morning at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the Retail Sales numbers for the UK were released. The expectations were up from last month and it is reporting for the Christmas period which is to be expected. The figures were mixed with the Ex Auto Fuel MoM 0.1 lower but the w/AutoFuel YoY coming in +0.2m, there were however some big downward revisions to the previous month, and the GBPUSD forex pair did sell off, which continued the trend since the 8:00 GMT (2:00 EST) European Cash Equity Open, when GBPUSD hit the big mid-century level of 1.5500 and sold off. This 5 minute chart shows this, but also shows the bounce after the news into the US open:
Note this is the high from Tuesday last week, before the pair got sold off on a rumor of a bad Industrial Production figure released on thrusday and followed the EURUSD down on Friday the 13th on the Ratings Downgrades by Standard & Poor's. Here is a 1 hour chart showing this:



Here are the figures:
UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.7% Average: +0.6% Range: +0.2% to +1.3%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: -0.7% Revised: -0.8%

UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.6% Average: +0.6% Range: 0.0% to +1.0%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: -0.4% Revised: -0.5%

UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel YoY
Estimates- Median: +1.7% Average: +1.7% Range: +1.2% to +2.3%
Actual: +1.7% Prior: +0.5% Revised: 0.0%

UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +1.8% to +3.5%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +0.7% Revised: +0.4%

and here is the 10 second chart of the Pound STerling versus US Dollar forex trading pair, GBPUSD:

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Australian GDP - positive deviation leads to pop higher and then trend

Australian GDP is released only quarterly and has a good reaction to price. There are some issues with Australian data in terms of the way it is released. Apparently only the Interest Rates are released electronically while the other data is at first transmitted by phone so various news services pick it up at slightly different times.

Tonight's q/q data came out at +1.0% above the +0.8% expect and thus a +0.2 deviation above the median expectation. The previous quarter's release was also revised up from +1.2% to +1.4% so again a positive deviation. This is all for the quarterly figures.

There was also y/y numbers which were also higher coming out at +2.5% above the +1.9% median expectation for a +0.6 deviation higher. Also the previous month was revised from +1.4% to +1.9 for a +0.5 deviation.

First the 1 minute chart shows how the initial reaction all came in the 1st minute, then things went sidewise for over 90 minutes.

then after a pullback to the 61% fibonacci level of the initial news release reaction spike, price again turned to the upside to rally further. Here is the 5 minute. The price action was very similar to the September release, only with the exception that this time there was more of a pullback over 3 hours after the release before things further rallied, but again profit taking did occur an hour or so after the London open, just like September.