Thursday, April 05, 2012

Canada Employment Change - Big Deviation, Big Spike and Continuation - like the old days

This Thrusday afternoon, at 13:30 GMT (8:30 EST) the Employment figures were released out of Canada. This data is normally on Friday's but it is Easter tomorrow, it also is normally at 7:00 EST but the BOE was doing there Interest Rate decision at that time so it was good they moved it to the 8:30am slot. Finally also normally NFP is only 90 minutes after this data, so it was good it wasn't today because the Canadian Dollar had time to just trend and continue without any worry of NFP coming along and changing everything in terms of the US DOllar or the Japanese Yen or Risk sentiment in general.

The market had been risk off in general..bad Spanish bond auction yesterday sparked renewed concerns and the Euro extended the sell-off already instigated by the Fed Minutes on Tuesday.

Anyhow here is that Canadian Data:


Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: +10.5k Average: +13.2k Low: +5.0k High: +40.0k
Actual: +82.3k Prior: -2.8k No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +7.4% Average: +7.4% Low: +7.4% High: +7.5%
Actual: +7.2% Prior: +7.4% No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: +70.0k Prior: +9.1k

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +12.4k Prior: -12.0k

Here are some 10 second charts:


The USDJPY which has been selling off since reaching 84.00 on March 15th, did take a turn back up and thus supported further gains on CADJPY.

A rumor of a major European bank in trouble which might need to be nationalised hit the wires about 10-15 minutes after the release, this helped the sell-off in the EURCAD and also made it more difficult for the USDCAD to sell-off. But this was probably just some BS the brokers paid the news wires to send down to the retail side, and it soon washed off and EURUSD bounced back up after hitting a significant fib level at 1.3050.

As this final 1 minute chart on the USDCAD forex pair shows the move developed some good momentum which continued for about 3 hours.

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