Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Fed Interest Rate Statement, FOMC Meeting Minutes & Feds Press Conference = Risk On Rally Extension

Today January 25th at 12:30 EST (17:30 GMT) the Fed released their interest rates which were left unchanged as predicted. They also released a Statement, which basically push the forecasted date of their 'exceptionally low fed funds rate' from mid-2013 last time to the end of 2014 with this statement, see the statement differences side-by-side here. This was a bullish statement which lead the markets to rally. As can be seen in the statement little else changed other than slight reordering of the phrases, other than this key statement.

The markets took off, all risky assets rallied, only space to focus on a few. First the 10 second chart of the EURUSD:

and a 30 second chart which shows the rally extending up to 1.3100 until 14:00 when the FOMC Meeting Minutes were released:

Here is the 3 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 :

So 1.5 hours after this initial statement the FOMC Meeting Minutes were released, of course there was alot they discussed. What stood out at the time was that 3 members were discussing hiking rates this year as well as the Fed adopting a specific inflation target. There were also revisions to their forecasts for GDP, PCE Inflation and Employment. The EURUSD took a 50 pip dive from the 1.3100 round figure based on this news.

Here is a 10 second chart of the EURUSD based on this response to the FOMC Meeting Minutes:

Then 15 minutes later the Fed's Press Conference started where Ben Beranke answered questions of journalists. Many things were said and it went on for some time, see more here, here, here & here, New Zealand Interest Rates and statements were released at 15:00 while this Press Conference was still going on, so it was a bit of an overload. Basically the Fed sounded more upbeat, that they will continue their monetary policies even if things improve and giving some hint of QE3 for possibly March. Basically the Fed has their foot on the pedal. The dip seen from the 14:00 FOMC minutes reversed and even higher highs were made accross all the markets.

There is a 5 minute chart of the EURUSD which shows more of the move thru all these events:

Interesting to point out Gold here as it breaks out a major trendline on the Daily Chart:

Yesterday Gold had come right up to this trendline and started bouncing off it. Here is a 30 minute chart showing this:

This is the 5 minute chart of Gold from the start of the 12:30 Statement. The time on the chart is GMT+2:

No comments: