Australian CPI - Conflict causes whipsaw which resolves higher

This Tuesday evening of January 24th at 19:30 EST (or 00:30 GMT on January 25th) the CPI figures were released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is released quarterly like it is for New Zealand and unlike the USA or UK where it comes out monthly. Probably because it is only quarterly it seems to move the price of the Australian Dollar quite a bit. This data did become a bit tricky starting in 2008 when it split up into 3 sets of data with the Headline, Trimmed Mean and Weighted Mean. So 6 figures plus there revisions makes alot of numbers to look at. The past few releases all these have lined up more or less. In october the Headline was flat as expected, but the positive deviations on Trimmed & Weighted Mean lead to a rally in AUDUSD forex pair. This time we saw a -0.2 on the Headline and positive deviations on Trimmed Mean.

Here are the figures:

Australia Consumer Prices QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.2% to +0.5%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: +0.6% No Revision

Australia Consumer Prices YoY
Estimates- Median: +3.3% Average: +3.2% Range: +2.8% to +3.6%
Actual: +3.1% Prior: +3.5% No Revision

Australia RBA Timmed Mean QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: +0.2% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.3% Revised: +0.4%

Australia RBA Timmed Mean YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +2.1% to +2.6%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.3% Revised: +2.4%

Australia RBA Weighted Mean QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Range: +0.2% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.3% Revised: +0.4%

Australia RBA Weighted Mean YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +2.1% to +2.6%
Actual: +2.6% Prior: +2.6% Revised: +2.7%

The AUDUSD forex pair initially spiked down on the lower deviation on the Headline figure but then whipped around back higher on the better Trimmed Mean, there were also downward revisions. This seems to indicate that Trimmed mean is more important. Here is the a 5 second chart of the move on AUDUSD:

Basically the market probably expected a lower CPI figure to give the RBA move room to cut rates in February as most analyst now expect, this mixed CPI figure brings some doubt now to the likelyhood of that outcome. Here is a 30 second chart to show the way the AUDUSD forex pair resolved higher:

Finally the 5 minute chart of the AUDUSD forex pair shows how it came up to test the R1 pivot thru the asian session, bounced off, retested and slightly broke the former highs during the European Session before moving down on bad headlines about Greece & Portugal later in the European morning: