Tuesday, January 17, 2012

German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment - much higher than expectations extends rally

This morning of January 17th at 10:00 GMT (5:00 EST) the ZEW Survey figures were released from Germany and for the Eurozone, along with CPI figures for the Euro-Zone. These ZEW figures have been quite low for awhile now. The one that matters the most in terms of its ability to actually move the EURUSD forex pair is the German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) which today printed much higher than the highest expectation. However the figure overall is still quite low compared to where it has been in the past, but it is a big improvement since last month.

Here is the data:

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY)
Estimates: Median +1.6% Average +1.6% Range +1.5% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.6% Prior: +1.6% No Revision

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM)
Estimates: Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.3% to +0.4%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +0.1% No Revision

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Estimates: Median +2.8% Average +2.8% Range +2.7% to +2.9%
Actual: +2.7% Prior: +3.0% No Revision

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
Actual: -32.5 Prior: -54.1 No Revision

Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
Estimates: Median -49.4 Average -49.5 Range -56.0 to -40.0
Actual: -21.6 Prior: -53.8 No Revision

Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation)
Estimates: Median +24.0 Average +23.6 Range +16.0 to +28.0
Actual: +28.4 Prior: +26.8 No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURUSD forex pair showing the initial reaction to the release:



The EURUSD had been rallying anyhow since the good GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production data out of China overnight. About 15-20 minutes before this data there was a Spanish Bond auction which went quite well and after the news and about 10-15 minutes after the news was a Greek Bond auction which could have been worse. Finally about 40-45 minutes after the news was a Belgian Bond auction. Watching these auctions has become very important for the EURUSD and the overall market indices, especially the auctions for Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland & Portugal.

This is a 30 second chart of the EURUSD pair showing how eventually it made it to the 1.2800 round figure where it sold off.

Of course the EURUSD was a bit overextended from the rally overnight due to the good chinese news, and this good ZEW data extended this a bit and then punctuated it as the USA woke up and arrived back from holiday ready to sell.

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