Germany Industrial Production - Data Leak leads to sell off before the release

Today on Thursday April 5th 2012, the Industrial Production figures for Germany were released. The data came out at 11:00 GMT (6:00 EST). This blog entry is included as it shows what is sometimes refered to as "Buy the rumor, sell the news", but often it can be "Sell the leak, buy the news"....and either it shows how good the research departments at the major banks are, or that indeed the information is getting leaked from the Department of Statistics from some underpaid secretary or janitor. Also it does show that the estimates provided to Bloomberg which are used to compose the 'Median Estimate' can also be skewed to provide the wrong forward projection for the release, when elsewhere it is known to be different. Whatever it is, we have no proof other than the proof of the price chart.

Here is the data:

Germany Industrial Production MoM (sa)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.4% Low: -1.9% High: +1.3%
Actual: -1.3% Prior: +1.6% Revised: +1.2%

Germany Industrial Production YoY (nsa wda)
Estimates- Median: +0.5% Average: +0.5% Low: -1.8% High: +2.3%
Actual: -1.0% Prior: +1.8% Revised: +1.5%

As we can see it was much lower. Now from the start of the European session it was very natural to sell EURUSD from its Central pivot point at 1.3160...it soon moved down to the big round number of 1.3100, and quite naturally took out stops there and moved down further into the 1.3080-95 region. However then the further extension from there down to 1.3060 in the 15 minutes leading into the release of the German data was highly suspect and points to early release amoungst an elite few. The data came out and there was no further price reaction, indeed the EURUSD had sold off all it could by that time, and a period of slow profit taking commenced which moved the pair back into the 1.3080 zone.

Here is the chart, the red mark is where the data was released:

German IFO - Rumor of higher number leads to rally, prints higher

This morning of February 23rd at 9:00 GMT (4:00 EST) the IFO figures were released from Germany. There was a rumor of a better number during the early European open and this lead the Euro to gain during the morning leading into the release. There were Middle-Eastern names seen buying the Euro but also some barrier protection at 1.3300 the round figure. The number was indeed higher, but not really by that much, this one is good to trade on a deviation of about +/- 1.2 and we didn't get that much higher than the median analsyst estimates. So this could have been a buy-the-rumour/sell-the-news setup, but actually price managed to continue on up even after the release, despite all the movement before the news. Alot of bidders and once the barrier option broke then further upside was attaing. However 1.3350 the mid-handle was frontrun, barrier protection again perhaps?, or just market-makers protecting the next hedging level....interesting anyhow. Anyhow we had resistance marked from 1.3340-50 so rode it down to 1.3270 as New York opened.

Here is the data:

German IFO - Business Climate
Estimates- Median: +108.8 Average: +109.0 Range: +108.0 to +111.0
Actual: +109.6 Prior: +108.3 No Revision

German IFO - Current Assessment
Estimates- Median: +116.5 Average: +116.5 Range: +115.0 to +118.0
Actual: +117.5 Prior: +116.3 No Revision

German IFO - Expectations
Estimates- Median: +102.0 Average: +102.0 Range: +100.4 to +104.5
Actual: +102.3 Prior: +100.9 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of EURUSD:

and here is the 1 minute chart of EURJPY

US NonFarm Payroll - Much Higher Risk-On except for European Currencies and Gold

This Friday, February 3rd 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the montly payroll data from the USA was released. This is basically an indication of the Employment Situation and is the most well known and widely watched piece of economic data known to the market. Almost every market instrument will move based on this data. If there are jobs in the USA then there will be confidence and Americans will have money in the pockets to buy stuff...whether houses from the large stock available or things fabricated in China.

Earlier in the week on Wednesday the ADP data came out slightly lower. This is a smaller sample but it gives an advanced indication of what is likely to happen with the NonFarm Payroll Number.
There are other economic data figures which attempt to gauge the employment situation in the USA. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims for instance has been coming out below 400k since December 2011. This broke the low seen in February 2011 and the number has been consistently at around 360k now. The Challenger Job Cuts was higher however, which indicates more people were laid-off from their jobs. The Employment Component of ISM Manufacturing PMI was also slightly lower, but Consumer Confidence definately has been up. Anyhow despite all these advanced readings on the day there is little you can do to predict what the NonFarm Payroll number will be unless you have special connections or something. This time there was an upward surprise. Here is the data:

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +140k Average: +146k Range: +95k to +225k
Actual: +243k Prior: +200k Revised: +203k

US Change in Private Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +160k Average: +162k Range: +110k to +250k
Actual: +257k Prior: +212k Revised: +220k

US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Estimates- Median: +12k Average: +14k Range: +9k to +25k
Actual: +50k Prior: +23k Revised: +32k

Unemployment Rates
Estimates- Median: +8.5% Average: +8.5% Range: +8.3% to +8.7%
Actual: +8.3% Prior: +8.5% No Revision

Average Hourly Earning MOM All Emp
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.2% Revised: +0.1%

Average Hourly Earning YOY All Emp
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.9% Range: +1.8% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.1% No Revision

Average Weekly Hours All Employees
Estimates- Median: 34.4 Average: 34.4 Range: 34.3 to 34.5
Actual: 34.5 Prior: 34.4 Revised: 34.5

Change in Household Employment w/Pop
Actual: 847 Prior: 176 No Revision

Underemployment Rate
Actual: 15.1% Prior: 15.2% No Revision

So where to start. Of course there were some nice moves, however while the commodity currencies forex pairs rallied the european currencies sold off. Gold sold off while Crude rallied. We will start with the Stock Index Futures, these are actually the most reliable to trade on US news in general these days. Here is the 1 minute chart of the Emini S&P 500 Future and the DAX Future:

After the Stock Index futures the CADJPY or another Commodity Currency like Australian dollar or New Zealand versus the Japanese Yen, AUDJPY or NZDJPY. Here is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

and this is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY to show more of the move:

It is always good to keep an eye on the USDJPY, although the moves are not always so many pips. Here is the 10 second chart of the USDJPY:

and a 1 minute chart of the USDJPY to show more of the move:

So now a 30 second chart of the EURUSD will show how it moved down on the release. It did briefly run up about 30 pips but then dropped 120 pips:

In contrast to the AUDUSD which spiked up, pulled back, and kepted rallying. The GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDNOK followed the Euro by weakening against the Dollar, only the Swedish Krona escaped the sell-off in European Currencies. The NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDZAR and Asian Currencies all rallied against the US Dollar much like this Australian Dollar did in this 1 minute chart of AUDUSD:

Also here is the 1 minute chart of Gold. It was whippy initially, basically it lost some of its shine as a safe-haven when better employment in the USA meant risk appetite. Interesting to note shifting correlations, Crude Oil did rally in contrast:

Canadian Employment lower - leads to moderate upmove

This Friday morning of February 3rd at 12:00 GMT (7:00 EST) the Employment figures where released from Canada. Basically this used to be the best news to trade, even better than the most well known Non-Farm Payroll news. However when big variations in Full time and Part time Employment were taken into account, the Canadian Dollar forex pairs stopped reacting so well to just the Employment Net Change deviation.

Recently the Australian Employment Change figures have come with analsyt estimates for Full Time and Part Time Employment Change, this has not yet happened for the Canadian Numbers, so we have to compare this months number to the prior number. So although there was a quite significant deviation lower on the Net Employment Change figure from Canada today of -19.7, as well as a 0.1 deviation on Unemployment Rate the USDCAD did not move that much higher. In the past a deviation of this sort would move the pair at least 50-60 pips easily, if not 80. When we look at the Full Time Employment Change we see that this number improved, so the drop which caused the deviation in the Net Employment Change number came from Part Time Employment.

Here the figures:

Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: 7.5% Average: 7.5% Range: 7.4% to 7.5%
Actual: 7.6% Prior: 7.5% No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +22.0k Average: +22.2k Range: +5.0k to +45.0k
Actual: +2.3k Prior: +17.5k No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: -3.6k Prior: -25.5k No Revision

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +5.9k Prior: +43.9k No Revision

Canada Participation Rate
Estimates- Median: 66.6 Average: 66.6 Range: 66.6 to 66.6
Actual: 66.7 Prior: 66.6 No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the USDCAD forex pair. Very modest spike for such a economic news deviation:

This is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY pair:

Next is the 1 minute chart of the pair. Over the next 90 minutes the USDCAD did go on to make another high at 1.0030, making a total of about 30 pips on the move. However with Non-Farm Payrolls out at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) this move up got quickly erased. The Red Arrow is the Canadian Employment Change Release and the Green Arrow is the US Non-Farm Payroll Release:

This 2 minute chart shows how the USDCAD came off its lows during the European session and moved up about 40 pips ahead of the econonmic new release:

This 3 minute chart shows the move for the whole day, leading into the Canadian Employment Data then into the US Non-Farm Payroll to finish the week:

This 1 minute chart shows the CADJPY move thru the Canadian Employment into the US Non-Farm Payroll:

US ADP Employment Change - Small Deviation lower does not affect the market much

Today Wednesday 1st February 2012 at 8:15 EST (13:15 GMT) the ADP employment figures were released from the USA. There was a small deviation lower of about 12k which is not large enough to take any trade. There was also a revision to the previous month of -33k which even with the 2 added together is still not enough...something more like a 70k deviation from expectations is good although 50k can work it is not reliable. Also it is best when the deviation is for the current month, not a revision. Here are the figures:

US ADP Employment Change
Estimates: Median: 182k Average: 188k Range: 145k to 300k
Actual: 170k Prior: 325k Revised: 292k

The markets had been rallying during the european session and basically this slightly worse data was not enough to stop them. Here is a 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future which bascially went sidewise but started to pick up as the US cash equity open approached at 9:30 EST (14:30 GMT) and then continued into the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release:

Also included is a 5 minute chart of the CADJPY which shows the move from the european session into the ADP data and then on until it hit resistance at 76.50. Notice the small dip in the uptrend as the data came out:

US Chicago PMI

Today on Tuesday 31st of January 2012 at 9:45 EST (15:45 GMT ) the Chicago PMI figures were released from the USA. This economic indicator has rebounded nicely from may but today it did come out lower and actually did cause a bit of risk off. This was unexpected because in many cases the market has not reacted predictably on this news releases, even when there are significant deviations.

Here are the figures:

US Chicago PMI
Estimates: Median: 63.0 Average: 62.6 Range: 59.0 to 67.0
Actual: 60.2 Prior: 62.2 No Revision


It appears as the market waits for NFP it is content to run to the extremes intraday as the market had rallied from the New york session the previous day, thru asia and europe just to sell off again when NY opened again. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future. There is a blue line marked at 9:42 est which is where this data is released to special subscribers before the general release 3 minutes later:

This is a 10 minute chart which shows the EMini S&P 500 future rally from the day before into this news:

Next is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY. This pair usually does not move many pips but it did go in the direction of the deviations:

Now the CADJPY 30 second chart, which had a better move and follows the main stock indices like the S&P 500 very well:

However remember that there was Canadian GDP at 8:30 est about 75 minutes before this news, so the Canadian Dollar was still be affected by that. Here is a 1 minute chart of the CADJPY Forex pair which shows the whole move on the pair thru the Canadian GDP and the US Chicago PMI. Luckily the weaker Canadian GDP agreed with the lower US Chicago PMI figures both in terms of the Canadian Dollar and the risk-off price flow:

US GDP Advanced for Q4 2011 - High Expectations slight disappointment but good moves

This friday January 27th 2012 at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) the Advanced or 1st reading of GDP for Q4 2011 was released from the USA. The expectations for this were quite high, considering that the Final Reading for Q3 was +1.8%, to jump to +3.0% is nearly doubling growth. As the expectation was quite high some probably considered that a small miss of the expectation would not cause a major sell off, but in the end it did provide a decent move down, although later on in the session things rebounded and there was a rally into the close for the week. Alot of these was do to good headlines about a deal on the deal with PSI about a haircut on Greek Debt, that an agreement was close.

Anyway here is the data:

US GDP QoQ (Annualized) Advanced Q4 2011
Estimates- Median: +3.0% Average: +3.0% Range: +2.4% to +4.5%
Actual: +2.8% Prior: +1.8% No Revision
US GDP Price Index
Estimates- Median: +1.9% Average: +1.7% Range: +0.6% to +2.6%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +2.6% No Revision
US Core PCE QoQ
Estimates- Median: +0.9% Average: +1.1% Range: +0.8% to +2.4%
Actual: +1.1% Prior: +2.1% No Revision
US Personal Consumption
Estimates- Median: +2.4% Average: +2.4% Range: +1.2% to +3.6%
Actual: +2.0% Prior: +1.7% No Revision

Here are some charts then, first is the Emini S&P 500 Future 1 minute chart:

Also another option for stock index futures is the DAX, or the FTSE, any major index will move with the EMini and DOW on US news. I like the DAX:

In Forex the CADJPY follows the Stock Indices quite well. Any Commodity Currency (AUD,NZD,CAD...or even ZAR or NOK probably will have to review those charts) versus the Japanese Yen will generally follow the stock indices, sometimes Canadian News comes out at the same time as US News so you have to watch out for that. This is the 10 second chart of the CADJPY:

Last month the USDJPY did not follow the lower print and actually moved up (only a small amount of pips). This time it did follow everything down, but normally this pair is avoided since it really doesn't move that much most of the time. Here is the 30 second chart of the USDJPY forex pair:

Actually it was risk-off across the board the USD dollar rallied as well with AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD selling off. Although the JPY did appreciate more than the USD on this risk-off move as can be seen by the USDJPY chart above. Here are 2 more charts of AUDUSD and NZDUSD, this time 5 minute chart and you can see more price action. Later on in the US Session as mentioned the deal on PSI haircuts looked close also 90 minutes after GDP the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures were released at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT). This data has rebounded nicely since some bad prints during August 2011. Now the figure is coming back up to 2 year highs. Here is that data:

US U. of Michigan Confidence
Estimates- Median: 74.0 Average: 74.3 Range: 72.5 to 76.0
Actual: 75.0 Prior: 74.0 No Revision

Finally these 2 charts are GMT+2 and also the Green line at the top is the R1 pivot, which AUDUSD tagged perfectly and sold off from, while NZDUSD overshot a bit. The Red Arrow is the release of GDP while the Blue Arrow is the release of U. of Michigan Confidence. The NZDUSD found support right on the Yellow horizontal line which is the Daily Central pivot:

US Pending Home Sales - Sell the Rumor Buy the News

A half an hour after the New York Cash Stock Equity Open at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Pending Home Sales figures were released. There were some negative headlines out of Europe about Greece and Portugal later in the European mid-day which gave the risk-on sentiment a pullback. The Emini S&P 500 sold off as the 9:30 open passed and headed down in the half hour leading into the News.

This really isn't the best economic news release to trade as everyone knows that housing is generally bad anyhow. In the past we have watched the USDJPY on US news but really the EMini S&P 500, the DOW or really any of the major Stock Indices generally follow US news quite well. The USDJPY does work but usually doesn't move many pips, perhaps 10. Here the figures:

US Pending Homes Sales MoM
Estimates- Median: -1.0% Average: -0.8% Range: -8.1% to +7.0%
Actual: -3.5% Prior: +7.3% No Revision
US Pending Homes Sales YoY
Actual: +4.4% Prior: +6.9% No Revision
US Home Price Index MoM
Estimates- Median: 0.0% Average: 0.0% Range: -0.5% to +0.5%
Actual: +1.0% Prior: -0.2% Revised: -0.7%

This is not large enough deviation trade, normally something closer to +/-5.0 or more, so this was a small -2.5 deviation and as the EMini had sold off into the news there was a good chance of a bounce back on a 'less worse than it could have been' type of rebound. Here is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 from a spreadbet broker:

If you are stuck to just trading Forex, then the CADJPY is a good pair to trade because it has a good correlation to the main stock indices, which are driven by risk-on/risk-off price flow dynamic. Here is the 1 minute chart of the CADJPY forex pair:

Currency COT Report for January 20th 2012

Bank of Canada hold rates steady at 1% - USDCAD gets choppy whipsaw

No analysts expected a change in Interest Rates today at 9am EST (2pm GMT) from the Bank of Canada today. Last month there was a rumor that the Bank's Governor Carney would sound dovish and signal rate cuts in 2012, but he did not, thus last time the USDCAD did have a strong move down.

This time there were no such expectations, although there are a few who still expect a cut sometime in the 1st half of 2012 as Australia, norway and sweden cut last month. Canada figures have not been bad but Carney's comments mentioned the situation in Europe, so basically the Bank of Canada remains on hold. Perhaps the slight upward bias on USDCAD (Canadian Dollar weakness) could be attributed to his emphasis on the crisis in Europe

If you look at the Statement Here for Bank of Canada Rate Decision Statement for January 17th 2012

you will notice it really isn't that much different than the Rate Decision Statement for December 2011

What is different was they revised their GDP forecasts while keeping inflation forecasts the same. The last time they gave GDP forecasts were during their October 2011 Rate Decision Statement so although they forecast 2.1 for 2011 it came out at 2.4, so they raised GDP for 2012 from 1.9 to 2.0 but lowered GDP for 2013 from 2.9 to 2.8...so a mixed bag so to speak.

Anyhow here is a 10 second chart of the whipsaw on the USDCAD:

Of course the forex pair had moved down quite a bit overnight, so a bit of a retracement was due. The market was preoccupied with talk of S&P downgrading European Banks after their Downgrades of several European countries on Friday January 13th.

German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment - much higher than expectations extends rally

This morning of January 17th at 10:00 GMT (5:00 EST) the ZEW Survey figures were released from Germany and for the Eurozone, along with CPI figures for the Euro-Zone. These ZEW figures have been quite low for awhile now. The one that matters the most in terms of its ability to actually move the EURUSD forex pair is the German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) which today printed much higher than the highest expectation. However the figure overall is still quite low compared to where it has been in the past, but it is a big improvement since last month.

Here is the data:

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY)
Estimates: Median +1.6% Average +1.6% Range +1.5% to +2.0%
Actual: +1.6% Prior: +1.6% No Revision

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM)
Estimates: Median +0.4% Average +0.4% Range +0.3% to +0.4%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +0.1% No Revision

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Estimates: Median +2.8% Average +2.8% Range +2.7% to +2.9%
Actual: +2.7% Prior: +3.0% No Revision

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
Actual: -32.5 Prior: -54.1 No Revision

Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
Estimates: Median -49.4 Average -49.5 Range -56.0 to -40.0
Actual: -21.6 Prior: -53.8 No Revision

Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation)
Estimates: Median +24.0 Average +23.6 Range +16.0 to +28.0
Actual: +28.4 Prior: +26.8 No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURUSD forex pair showing the initial reaction to the release:

The EURUSD had been rallying anyhow since the good GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production data out of China overnight. About 15-20 minutes before this data there was a Spanish Bond auction which went quite well and after the news and about 10-15 minutes after the news was a Greek Bond auction which could have been worse. Finally about 40-45 minutes after the news was a Belgian Bond auction. Watching these auctions has become very important for the EURUSD and the overall market indices, especially the auctions for Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland & Portugal.

This is a 30 second chart of the EURUSD pair showing how eventually it made it to the 1.2800 round figure where it sold off.

Of course the EURUSD was a bit overextended from the rally overnight due to the good chinese news, and this good ZEW data extended this a bit and then punctuated it as the USA woke up and arrived back from holiday ready to sell.

US ADP Employment Change - much higher deviation leads to nice spike

A very big upward deviation on the ADP Employment Change from the USA released today at 13:15 GMT (8:15 EST). This sets up the big data for Friday, the Non-Farm Payroll to come out higher. There was nice rallies on the EMini S&P 500 and the Yen Crosses as a little bid came back into risky assets after the battering they had taken during the European morning as the European Banking sector got hit on fears about Italy's Unicredit and Deutsche Bank.

This was followed 15 minutes later by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims from the USA. This figure did make a new low for 2011 on December 15th of 366k, which broke the low from late February and shows that unemployment is slowing in the USA. There is also a weekly Continuing Claims number released at the same time slot at half past. Today's Initial Jobless Claims figure did not break the December 15th 366k low but it did stay below the important 400k level.

Here are the figures:

US ADP Employment MoM
Estimates: Median +178k Average +177k Range +125k to +230k (150-200 most)
Actual: +325k Prior: +206k Revised: +204k

US Initial Jobless Claims WoW
Estimates: Median +375k Average +377k Range +365k to +390k
Actual: +372k Prior: +381k Revised: +387k

US Continuing Claims WoW
Estimates: Median +3570k Average +3567k Range +3500k to +3650k
Actual: +3595k Prior: +3601k Revised: +3617k

First chart is the 1 minute chart of the EMini S&P 500 future, a good 6 point (24 tick) move:

Next a 30 second chart of the USDJPY, although not so many pips a solid move, notice the move accelerates further after the Initial jobless claims release 15 minutes later:

Finally a 10 second chart of the CADJPY which had a nice spike in reaction to the large positive deviation seen on the US Monthly ADP figure release, and mirroring the move seen in the EMini S&P:

Scalping the Loonie USDCAD pair - Don't trade in low volume holiday markets?

Many will warn of the dangers of trading when volume gets light and liquidity in the market drains away in the run up to Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter and the August Summer holidays. Well definately it is good to take some time off, recharge the batteries and unplug from the dam computer, eat real home cooked food and enjoy the company of friends and family...but why not make some pips if you are waiting for that turkey to bake or family to arrive or to catch your plane.

If you have some good analysis why not. Holiday markets can take 2 shapes, 1. moves can be exacerbated because some big-pockets can swing things around on the cheap, or 2. things might not move much at all or in tight ranges.

Today was Friday December 23st, how lucky that Christmas is on a weekend this year and the Forex market is open Sunday night December 25 all the way to Friday December 30th because somewhere on the planet they don't have Christmas...joking...lol. Not alot of news out of Europe but North America had Canadian GDP and the USA had a bunch of smaller economic news reports. I showed up and posted a chart of the Fibonacci cluster on the Daily Chart of the USDCAD to my members at SecretFXTrading and followers on twitter.

So the 38% of the late July 26th of 0.9405 to the October 4th high of 1.0667 comes in around 1.0179. Also the 38% of the same October 4th high 1.0667 to the October 28th low of 0.9894 comes in around 1.0184....but gosh that October 4th pin bar was such a beauty!!! Almost every major forex pair had a sharp reversal that day...only Cable the GBPUSD forex pair went lower to 1.5270 on October 6th when the Bank of England raised the 'Asset Purchase Facility' (APF) by 75 Billion to 275B....basically printing more money. More supply of paper, less value, however this was good news cloaked as bad because it will help the Economy, hopefully adding a few points to GDP, which would strengthen the Pound-Dollar...but perhaps it will raise inflation, which is a stealth tax...hmm good or bad or a bit of both....grey area, well you can shout, you can scream, but what offering solutions, we can all click a mouse button and place a trade, don't be too drastic, remember social cohesion, the status quo, don't want to rock the boat too much. Wow I got way off topic! Back the Loonie.

Anyhow the CAD GDP was basically flat, and all day the USDCAD pair bounced off this fib cluster. Generally I take 15-20 pips on either a half or a third of the position and move the stop to breakeven. Sometimes I stack entries and build a position up. There was a possibility that the 1st blue October fib level would break and the yellow july-early october fib would be tested which it nearly did but was front-run by a pip or two. Also notice how when the previous swing high was tagged the loonie would reverse back down into the fib cluster zone again for another go. Well how many times can you make 15-20 pips on half a position? After awhile you have racked up quite a few pips...of course it is easy to get greedy, hold the full position for a further move higher, just to get stopped out, give up your patience and leave the charts to start Christmas celebrations. Anyhow it turned out to be a good day and an extra nice bottle of champagne is in order. Here is the 5 minute chart of the fibonacci cluster zone mentioned above, with a summary of entries and exits, most exits were only half the position and the other half got stopped out, just to reenter...so did pay more spread than needed if the position had some more wiggle room but better safe than sorry, if the stop was 10-20 pips below there may have been a reason to hit it...remember the market wants to do business, even on Christmas.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkkah or Happy Holiday

Magister Pips

US Housing Starts and Building Permits - higher leads to rally after some time

The Housing Starts and Building Permits data from the USA was released today December 20th 2012
at 8:30am EST, 13:30 GMT. It was higher and although the initial reaction was small it did lead to a rally in all risky assets...AUDUSD, CADJPY, DAX, EMini S&P 500 futures

The market is very thin, no volume due to the approaching Christmas holidays so the reaction might have been a bit exaggerated. However the number was alot higher than the median estimate, and hte largest deviation for awhile.

Here the figures:

US Housing Starts m/m
Estimates: Median 635k , Average 633k, Range 600k to 655k
Actual: 685k Prior: 628k Revised: 627k

US Housing Starts MoM%
Estimates: Median 1.1% , Average 0.8%, Range -4.5% to +4.3%
Actual: +9.3% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -2.9%

US Building Permits m/m
Estimates: Median: 635k , Average 636k, Range 610k to 668k
Actual: 681k Prior: 653k Revised: 644k

US Building Permits MoM%
Estimates: Median: -1.4%, Average -1.3%, Range -5.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +5.7% Prior: +10.9% Revised: +9.3%

Here some charts:
the CADJPY 5 second chart

and the USDJPY 10 second chart, not such a good response here:

the reaction in the EMini S&P 500 Future (this is spreadbet, probably slightly different the CME) 1 minute chart:

and finally a 1 minute chart of the DAX future:

US CPI - Mixed reading leads to some wiggle as US shows up and sells

Today December 16th at 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) the CPI inflation figures for the USA were released.
This one hasn't had anything more than a +/-0.1 deviation in ages and in this environment of economic uncertainty inflation is not going to change the FOMC interest rates.

Here the figures:

US CPI m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range -0.1% to +0.4%
Actual: 0.0% Prior: -0.1%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m
Estimates: Median +0.1% Average +0.1% Range 0.0% to +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Prior: +0.1%

US CPI y/y
Estimates: Median +3.5% Average +3.5% Range +3.3% to +3.7%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +3.5%

US CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y
Estimates: Median +2.1% Average +2.1% Range +2.0% to +2.3%
Actual: +2.2% Prior: +2.1%

Here some charts, first USDJPY 1 minute:

This is the EMini S&P 500, this is a spreadbet chart, so might be slightly different than the actual futures.

Also the CADJPy 1 minute chart since this has a good correlation to the Stock Indices: