Friday, February 03, 2012

Canadian Employment lower - leads to moderate upmove

This Friday morning of February 3rd at 12:00 GMT (7:00 EST) the Employment figures where released from Canada. Basically this used to be the best news to trade, even better than the most well known Non-Farm Payroll news. However when big variations in Full time and Part time Employment were taken into account, the Canadian Dollar forex pairs stopped reacting so well to just the Employment Net Change deviation.

Recently the Australian Employment Change figures have come with analsyt estimates for Full Time and Part Time Employment Change, this has not yet happened for the Canadian Numbers, so we have to compare this months number to the prior number. So although there was a quite significant deviation lower on the Net Employment Change figure from Canada today of -19.7, as well as a 0.1 deviation on Unemployment Rate the USDCAD did not move that much higher. In the past a deviation of this sort would move the pair at least 50-60 pips easily, if not 80. When we look at the Full Time Employment Change we see that this number improved, so the drop which caused the deviation in the Net Employment Change number came from Part Time Employment.

Here the figures:

Canada Net Change in Employment
Estimates- Median: 7.5% Average: 7.5% Range: 7.4% to 7.5%
Actual: 7.6% Prior: 7.5% No Revision

Canada Unemployment Rate
Estimates- Median: +22.0k Average: +22.2k Range: +5.0k to +45.0k
Actual: +2.3k Prior: +17.5k No Revision

Canada Full Time Employment Change
Actual: -3.6k Prior: -25.5k No Revision

Canada Part Time Employment Change
Actual: +5.9k Prior: +43.9k No Revision

Canada Participation Rate
Estimates- Median: 66.6 Average: 66.6 Range: 66.6 to 66.6
Actual: 66.7 Prior: 66.6 No Revision

Here is a 10 second chart of the USDCAD forex pair. Very modest spike for such a economic news deviation:

This is a 30 second chart of the CADJPY pair:



Next is the 1 minute chart of the pair. Over the next 90 minutes the USDCAD did go on to make another high at 1.0030, making a total of about 30 pips on the move. However with Non-Farm Payrolls out at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) this move up got quickly erased. The Red Arrow is the Canadian Employment Change Release and the Green Arrow is the US Non-Farm Payroll Release:

This 2 minute chart shows how the USDCAD came off its lows during the European session and moved up about 40 pips ahead of the econonmic new release:

This 3 minute chart shows the move for the whole day, leading into the Canadian Employment Data then into the US Non-Farm Payroll to finish the week:

This 1 minute chart shows the CADJPY move thru the Canadian Employment into the US Non-Farm Payroll:

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