Monday, February 06, 2012

Australian Retail Sales - Lower Print comes with mixed Quarterly Figures

This evening of Sunday Febrary 5th 2012 at 00:30 GMT (19:30 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released from Australia. This time the quarterly figures Ex Inflation was also released. The last time this came out was November 11th 2011, it doesn't get released every time, only every 3 months or so. The data comes a day before the RBA Interest Rate decision which at this point most analysts expect the RBA to cut rates 25 basis points. Here the figures:

Australian Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.2% to +0.5%
Actual: -0.1% Prior: 0.0% Revised: +0.1%

Australian Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ)
Estimates- Median: +0.6% Average: +0.6% Range: -0.1% to +1.3%
Actual: +0.4% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +0.5%

So a -0.3 deviation lower on the monthly figure with a +0.1 revision to the previous month. The Quarterly Ex Inflation was also -0.2 with a -0.1 revision. A moderate sized deviation but based on the past history of this release a +/-0.5 is really a good enough sized deviation to get the Australian Dollar forex pairs moving.

Here is the 1 minute chart of the AUDUSD. The red arrow shows when the news was released. The pair had moved down leading into the news, upon release it had a small spike down but retraced those quickly but did grind down again:

This is a 2 minute chart of the AUDUSD which shows the whole move from the 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT) Sunday open, thru the News Release and the rest of the Asian Session, leading into the London Open and the European Session. The Red Arrow marks the News Release and the Blue Circle is the London Open:

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