Friday, January 20, 2012

Canadian CPI - big lower deviation causes short spike and reversal

This morning at 12:00 GMT (7:00 EST) the Consumer Price Index was released out of Canada. This is the main inflation figures and were alot lower. Earlier in the week the Bank of Canada released their Interest Rate Decision along with a statement, and the next day there was a monetary policy report which did give some sense the Bank would be raising rates again at some point.

Here are the figures:
CAD Bank of Canada CPI Core MoM
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: -0.2% Range: -0.4% to +0.2%
Actual: -0.5% Prior: +0.1% No Revision

CAD Bank of Canada CPI Core YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.2% Average: +2.2% Range: +2.0% to +2.5%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.1% No Revision

CAD Consumer Price Index MoM
Estimates- Median: -0.2% Average: -0.2% Range: -0.5% to +0.2%
Actual: -0.6% Prior: +0.1% No Revision

CAD Consumer Price Index YoY
Estimates- Median: +2.7% Average: +2.7% Range: +2.4% to +3.1%
Actual: +2.3% Prior: +2.9% No Revision

and here is a 10 second chart of the USDCAD, showing the spike from the news and then the reversal. CPI figures are a bit tough to trade in the current economic environment because interest rates are already lower, and the reason these figures traditionally have moved the currency is because they mean the Central Bank will adjust rates according to whether inflation is high or low...but this will not happen, although it does mean that Bank of Canada is less likely to raise rates again soon, which some had expected with the monetary report. USDCAD rallied from 1.0070 to 1.0150 from yesterday's new york session into today's CPI release, perhaps there was a leak, not surprising for Canadian Data. Anyway here is that chart:

and the 15 minute chart of the move heading into the release, also shows the 2 hours of whipsaw after the 12:00 GMT (07:00 EST) release, heading into the New York Cash Equity open at 14:30 GMT(9:30 EST):

No comments: