Thursday, January 05, 2012

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - tiny build causes whipsaw

The market is still recovering from light volume holiday conditions so although this number can move in the right direction on just a +/-1 from the expected number, today a small build actually cause a initial spike up when usually it would have moved down. Anyhow such small deviations are very risky especially in thin liquidity.

Here is the figure:

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -78 Average -79 Range -95 to -66
Actual: -76 Prior: -81

Here is a 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Futures Contract:

and another 1 minute chart of the stock Cheasapeake, which actually followed the direction of the deviation from the estimate alot better than the Nat Gas Future which was very whippy initially:

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