Thursday, January 19, 2012

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - tiny deviation brings continuation of strong downtrend

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change number was released by the Energy Information Administration or the EAI. Just a small deviation but we continue to watch the price of the Natural Gas Futures contract continue to meltdown after breaking thru $3 back on january 10th it has come down as low as $2.35 which is quite a drop. 9 days lower without any retracement, a very strong trend. Well of course, large deposits of natural gas are now available due to fracking in the USA, and if these lower prices continue then possibly cars running on natural gas could be a solution to the vast crude oil imports to the USA and make energy independence more of a possibility, at least less dependent on imports. Also the winter weather in the USA has been very mild, this means less Natural gas is being used to heat homes, and storage figures overall are alot higher than the previous year's winters storage figures, the price of the Natural Gas Futures are now approaching 10 year lows.

Here is the daily chart of natural gas:


With this type of strong deviation, trading on these figures is dangerous unless they confirm the downtrend or deviate by a big enough amount to give the strong downtrend reason for a retracement.
Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gaso Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -86 Average: -91 Range: -109 to -74
Actual: -87 Prior: -95 No Revision

Just a small deviation, but first is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future:

Also included here are 3 minute charts of some energy stocks which are involved with Natural Gas. There is a whole bunch of them which can be seen on this web page. Not sure what conclusions can be drawn from these at this point, given the strong trend, and small deviation...we see exxon had a good day but Chesapeake followed Natural Gas down. Also included is Cabot.


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