EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Decent Deviation in Trend Direction but

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) on Thursday April 5th 2012 the Natural Gas Storage Figures were released from the EIA. They had a bearish Build of +8, a pretty decent number but the spike was quite fast and there was not a continuation. On April 2nd, the active Natural Gas Future Contract NG broke $2.1 which I believe was the low from September 2001, thus making a new decade low. Price prompted bounced from this historic level all the way back to $2.20.

So this may mark a turning point, the historic low has now been taken out, what will happen to this this downtrend in NatGas. Certainly the price was not so willing to continue moving downwards on this quite decent deviation although it was quite a good spike move. Could things go sidewise or is Natural Gas going to make a further push beyond $2.10 perhaps attempting the key $2.00 level. Time will tell, for now there maybe a break with some sidewise action as the winter ends.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage change
Estimates- Median: 34 Average: 34 Low: 25 High: 45
Actual: 42 Prior: 57 No Revisions

Here is a 30 second chart of the May NG contract. It shows how it snapped back all the way to the 78% of the initial sppike move. There was also of bouncing off the pivot as price did tend to move gradually back to the downside, but never took out the initial spike lows...for now at least, perhaps eventually.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Nice Big Build Sparks Large Down Spike in already downtrending market

This afternoon of Thursday March 29th at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change Figures were released from the EIA. This market continues to trend lower and lower, and it appears nearly certain that eventually the $2 mark will be tested. The market had been in risk-off mode especially the Australian Dollar which has been hit particularly hard on talk of a slowdown in China and the assumption that the RBA would cut rates at its next meeting. Moves could be exacerbated by the end of Q1 at the end of march, the last trading day of the quarter is tomorrow. Profits are being booked and bad positions dumped to square the books so quarterly reports show decent gains or that the risk profile is agreeable.

Anyway here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: 48 Average: 49 Low: 40 High: 70
Actual: 57 Prior: 11 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart...unfortunately I lost my broadband connection a few seconds before the release, and by the time I got it restored the data had been released. I chased the move at a bad location. I was still able to get a few point despite this obvious bad execution. Despite my 7 years of trading experience, that is 7 years of at least 40 hours a week in front of the charts, not to mention a decade of trading stocks on daily charts after work, it never ceases to amaze me how I am still prone to make trading errors. The feeling that I missed out causing me to chase at a badly considered entry. Feeling regret for loosing my broadband causing me to try and make up for missing the event. Oh well, we do get better with time and these errors get fewer and far between, we also get much better at recognizing when we have made one and quick to stop our self's from progressing further with it. Anyway here is that chart:

This is the 1 minute chart of the May 2012 Natural Gas Future Contract NG, which now carries more volume than the April contract. One can see that there were some obvious pullback and momentum waves which could have been taken advantage of. After my initial blunder I just decided to stand aside. Not to mention the fact that the Australian Dollar was in the final stages of selling off to some very strong support ahead of 1.0300. I remain primarily a Forex trader and Commodity futures is really just a sideshow.

Here some charts of Chesapeake, Devon and Cabot Stocks which usually follow the Natural Gas. Although they usually follow it better if it is not trending down so much as these stock also follow the stock market. So although initially they did move down they did pullback a bit later but then did progress much lower as the session progreessed:

Chesapeake Energy Corp. or CHK 1 minute chart

Devon Energy Corp. or DVN Stock 1 minute chart

and finally Cabot Oil & Gas or COB Stock 1 minute chart

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - Fading the hot news Flash - Go with the Trend

This Thursday afternoon of March 15th 2012 at 10:30 EST (14:30 GMT) the EAI Natural Gas Storage Change figures were released. They had a bullish draw however the Natural Gas Future Contract continues to trend lower getting ever more closer to decade lows seen after 9/11

Here is the data:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -59 Average: -58 High: -50 Low: -65
Actual: -64 Prior: -80 No Revisions

Here is a 10 second chart showing fading the initial upward spike reaction to the bullish news. Don't try this at home folks, unless you are experienced at trading and know how to manage risk. The Natural Gas Future is like a slippery eel and it can move faster than virtually any other instrument...indeed sometimes its price action can best be described with one word: GAS!!!

Here is the Daily chart of the active month continuous Natural Gas Future, showing the downtrend. The trend is your friend, don't fight it...while there was money to be made with the quick money move on the instant spike reaction to the news deviation, with the right technological tools of course, always be aware of the trend when trading...news trading or otherwise:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - Small Higher print Spike Down

Natural Gas is still under pressure, at nearly decade lows. I have spoken about the reasons for this in previous blog posts but basically it has made trading this news release a bit trickier. However this is mostly for a negative deviation or Draw which normally would have a bullish reaction spike higher, but with the sell off in Natural Gas any spike up in it is just an opportunity to sell into the down trend.

Today was the reverse, the figure came out high and higher storage means higher supply and with the low demand due to a warm winter, the Natural Gas Future Contract NQ spiked down.

Natural Gas can spike quite well on this release, in fact I have seen deviations of just +/-2 move the market nicely. So although something closer to +/-7 is safer this +5 did work out very well.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates -> Median: -85 Average: -84 Low: -92 High: -56
Actual: -80.00 Prior: -82 No Revision

Here is the 15 second chart of the NQ Natural Gas Future Contract with volume at the bottom.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print leads to drop in Nattie but stock don't follow

This afternoon of Thursday February 23rd 2012 at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change number was released from the EIA.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -170 Average: -164 Range: -185 to -125
Actual: -166 Prior: -127 No Revisions

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print good news trade

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -120 Average: -119 Range: -130 to -110
Actual: -127 Prior: -78 No Revision

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Higher Print but initially lower but reverses

This Thursday afternoon, February 9th 2012 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the Natural Gas Storage Change figure was released from the EIA. Have only been watching this release lately as very high storage levels have been reported this winter which has brought the price of Natural Gas very low. A few weeks ago Chesapeake tried to help this by announcing plans to cut their Natural Gas production. So the market has consolidated a bit for now.

Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -86 Average: -86 Range: -99 to -75
Actual: -78 Prior: -132 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future. From a Spreadbet chart, so no decimal place:

Also included are some Energy Stocks...what is interesting is how these stocks sold off before the annnouncement. Had a slight lower tick on the release and then managed to rally several minutes later, much like the Natural Gas Future did:

Chesapeake (CHK) is always one to watch for Gas:

Cabot (COB) also is good:

Not sure about Devon's (DVN) involvement with Gas, but a smaller energy company:

Finally 2 big companies Exxon (XOM) and BP which trades in London:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - lower print brings whipsaw but resolves higher.

This afternoon of Thrusday February 2nd 2012 at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Numbers were released. This Natural Gas Future has not been following this economic figure very well recently. This is because the winter has been warmer this year, and storage of natural gas has been alot higher in general than previous winters. Also of course there is more supply due to the Natural Gas being available from phracking shale in the USA. A week or 2 ago, We got a tape bomb news trade when Chesapeake said they were going to cut back on their production because the price was too low, this was as the price of the Active Front-month Natural Gas Future was close to decade lows last seen in September 2001 after the 9/11 attacks.

Since that time the price of Natural Gas rallied a bit but again came down a bit at the end of January, but has stabilized and consolidated. So the market seems a bit more evenly balanced and news trades should start to work better. Although this was a small deviation lower, Nat Gas in the past has been very sensitive to this number. There was an initial whipsaw, but a few minutes later the price did start to rally. Lower prints mean less supply than estimated and this is usually a bullish sign. Here is the figures:

EIA Natural Gaso Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -129 Average: -128 Range: -136 to -115
Actual: -132 Prior: -192

Here is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future. This is from a spreadbet chart so there is no decimal place:

and here is the 1 minute chart of the stock Chesapeake. It followed the EIA deviation better than the Natural Gas Future did. The Natural Gas Future tends to be very volatile, a bit like....well gas...it seems to sweep over numbers rather steadily run thru them. Perhaps this is why Chesapeake traded better as in high-leveraged Future Contract that whipsaw seen on the Natural Gas Future might have gotten ugly without enough leverage.

EIA Natural Gas Storage - Lower Print sees only brief uptick

This Thrusday January 26th at 10:30 EST (15:30 GMT) the Natural Gas Storage Change figures were released from the EIA. There was a lower print, which would have normally caused a big spike up in the Natural Gas futures. However Natural Gas is being driven by other factors at the moment and is not really following this data. A much warmer winter means Natural Gas storage is much higher than previous years, as well as the fact that due to phracking techniques there is now much more available in the USA.

On January 23rd Chesapeake announced they would be scaling back their Natural Gas operations as the price of Natural Gas has been trending lower and is nearly testing 10 year lows made around September 2001. This caused Natural Gas to rally and it could be a major turning point for this commodity. Despite Natural Gas selling off on a lower number, all in all the price has been moving up since the 23rd Chesapeake announcement, and should soon retest the recent highs.

Here is the data:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -175 Average: -173 Range: -194 to -140
Actual: -192 Prior: -87 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart of the NQ Natural Gas Futures, this chart does not have a decimal place since it is from a spreadbettor broker:

Next is the 2 minute chart of Chesapeake which does seem to follow Natural Gas better than other energy stocks:

EAI Natural Gas Storage Change - tiny deviation brings continuation of strong downtrend

Today at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) the Natural Gas Storage Change number was released by the Energy Information Administration or the EAI. Just a small deviation but we continue to watch the price of the Natural Gas Futures contract continue to meltdown after breaking thru $3 back on january 10th it has come down as low as $2.35 which is quite a drop. 9 days lower without any retracement, a very strong trend. Well of course, large deposits of natural gas are now available due to fracking in the USA, and if these lower prices continue then possibly cars running on natural gas could be a solution to the vast crude oil imports to the USA and make energy independence more of a possibility, at least less dependent on imports. Also the winter weather in the USA has been very mild, this means less Natural gas is being used to heat homes, and storage figures overall are alot higher than the previous year's winters storage figures, the price of the Natural Gas Futures are now approaching 10 year lows.

Here is the daily chart of natural gas:

With this type of strong deviation, trading on these figures is dangerous unless they confirm the downtrend or deviate by a big enough amount to give the strong downtrend reason for a retracement.
Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gaso Storage Change
Estimates- Median: -86 Average: -91 Range: -109 to -74
Actual: -87 Prior: -95 No Revision

Just a small deviation, but first is the 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Future:

Also included here are 3 minute charts of some energy stocks which are involved with Natural Gas. There is a whole bunch of them which can be seen on this web page. Not sure what conclusions can be drawn from these at this point, given the strong trend, and small deviation...we see exxon had a good day but Chesapeake followed Natural Gas down. Also included is Cabot.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Draw but brief blip up aggressively sold in strong downtrend

The Natural Gas Future has sold off quite a bit this week, and when this bullish EAI Natural Gas Storage Change number was released at 15:30 GMT (10:30 EST) is only caused a very quick blip higher of about 20-30 ticks before being aggressively sold. The number was lower which means less supply and thus prices usually go higher, however it was not a very big deviation as it was only -6 below the median expectation. However the Price of the Natural Gas Future Future is usually quite sensitive to this number and it has moved on deviations of just 2-3 from expectations. Anyway it was a good oppotunity to short into the larger downtrend...

Here the figures:

EIA Natual Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -89 Average -87 Range -105 to -70
Actual: -95.00 Prior -76 No Revision

Here is the 1 minute chart immediately following the release:

Here is a chart of the Daily chart which shows the strong down trend...natural gas is getting cheaper as phracking in the USA means more without transport costs of bringing it from the middle east for example. Notice how the past 3 days in particular the Natural Gas Futures has broken the 3000, this is a spreadbet chart by the way and 3000 refers to $3 as the contract trades with 3 places after the decimal point and is quite volatile:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - tiny build causes whipsaw

The market is still recovering from light volume holiday conditions so although this number can move in the right direction on just a +/-1 from the expected number, today a small build actually cause a initial spike up when usually it would have moved down. Anyhow such small deviations are very risky especially in thin liquidity.

Here is the figure:

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -78 Average -79 Range -95 to -66
Actual: -76 Prior: -81

Here is a 1 minute chart of the Natural Gas Futures Contract:

and another 1 minute chart of the stock Cheasapeake, which actually followed the direction of the deviation from the estimate alot better than the Nat Gas Future which was very whippy initially:

EIA Natural Gas Inventories - Small build leads to decent down move

This Thrusday December 22nd at 10:30 EST and 15:30 GMT the Natural Gas Storage figures were released by the EAI. Here the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -105 Average -104 Range -112 to -90 (majority -110 to -104)
Actual: -100.0 Prior -102 No Revision

a very small build of +2, and the Natural Gas Future contract NQ moved down 90 ticks, it is a very volatile instrument and while such a small deviation from the median is risky to trade it will often move on any deviation.

Here is the 1 sec chart of the Natural Gas:

and here is the 1 minute chart:

Also included is the 1 minute chart of the stock for Chesapeake, they are a company involved in doing fracking for Natural Gas...it appear there is massive quantities of Natural Gas which is stored in big Shale deposits until the USA and now it can be blasted out of the rock, so in general Natural Gas is cheaper these days...Chesapeake tends to be affected:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print but whipsaw

Liquidity is very thin as Christmas approaches so there was a good deviation today but it just caused a whipsaw. Here are the figures:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Estimates: Median -92 Average -90 Range -103 to -61
Actual: -102 Prior: -20

Here is the 1 minute chart from a spreadbet platform, so might be slightly different than the real futures market.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change - Lower Print Leads to Spike

Thursday December 8th 2011 10:30am EST the EIA Natural Gas Storage Change figures
were release. Here are figures and charts of the Price Action response in the
Natural Gas Futures Market:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

Median Estimate -12
Average Estimate -13
Prior -1
Range of Estimates -42 to +1

Actual -20

EAI Natural Gas Inventories - Huge Spike Trade and Afterspike

On Wednesday Nov. 24th at 5pm GMT (noon EST) the EAI (Energy Information Administration) released it's weekly inventory numbers for Natural Gas Supply. Normally this news is release on Thursday at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST). The news release was moved up a day because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA on Thursday means that the markets will be closed. Although the deviation on this number was a bit lower than what normally would be safe, the Natural Gas Futures contract has been responding to this news exceptionally well recently, and even small deviations from the expected number has caused good moves. Here is the Data:

EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -6 BCF VS. -5 TO +5 BCF ESTIMATE RANGE

TradeTheNews gives a range of expectations and this number came just -1 below this low end of this range, however the Secret News Weapon from Fast Economic News, which we use to get quick entry signals on news releases uses a median average estimate of all analysts and this was -1, and thus a -5 deviation. Lower supply means higher prices, and the Natural Gas Future rallied some +190 ticks in the first 5 seconds. About 15 seconds after the release price came back down between the 38% and 50% fibonacci retracement of this initial news reaction move. Another 10 seconds after the pullback price start its move up again, and move another +50 ticks or so up after this. It then pulled back again and went sidewise for a few minutes which can seem like eternity when u are in a news trade, yet the patient ones who trade calmly saw a further extension up for another +50 ticks. All around excellent opportunity.