On Wednesday Nov. 24th at 5pm GMT (noon EST) the EAI (Energy Information Administration) released it's weekly inventory numbers for Natural Gas Supply. Normally this news is release on Thursday at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST). The news release was moved up a day because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA on Thursday means that the markets will be closed. Although the deviation on this number was a bit lower than what normally would be safe, the Natural Gas Futures contract has been responding to this news exceptionally well recently, and even small deviations from the expected number has caused good moves. Here is the Data:
EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -6 BCF VS. -5 TO +5 BCF ESTIMATE RANGE
TradeTheNews gives a range of expectations and this number came just -1 below this low end of this range, however the Secret News Weapon from Fast Economic News, which we use to get quick entry signals on news releases uses a median average estimate of all analysts and this was -1, and thus a -5 deviation. Lower supply means higher prices, and the Natural Gas Future rallied some +190 ticks in the first 5 seconds. About 15 seconds after the release price came back down between the 38% and 50% fibonacci retracement of this initial news reaction move. Another 10 seconds after the pullback price start its move up again, and move another +50 ticks or so up after this. It then pulled back again and went sidewise for a few minutes which can seem like eternity when u are in a news trade, yet the patient ones who trade calmly saw a further extension up for another +50 ticks. All around excellent opportunity.
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