Wednesday, November 24, 2010

UK Revised GDP - Flat but does maintain last month's preliminary gain


This Wednesday morning at 9:30am GMT (4:30am EST) the UK release alot of economic news figures, the main of which was the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, the main indicator of the health of the economy. This is the Revised GDP as the actual GDP comes out at the end of the quarter and the 1st month of the quarter is the release of the preliminary number. Usually the biggest surprise deviation from the expected number is on the preliminary release. Last month there was a blockbuster deviation of +0.4, coming out at +0.8 above the +0.4 expected. There was a very nice move up on the GBPUSD forex pair as the market had not expected such a good number to be released. There was also some other data released but none of it is important as the GDP figures. Here is the data:

Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.8%E

Q3 PRELIMINARY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION: 0.3% V 0.6%E; GOVERNMENT SPENDING: 0.4% V 0.4%E
- Gross Fixed Capital: 0.6% v 1.3%e
- Exports: 2.2% v 1.5%
- Imports: 0.7% v 1.2%e

SEPT INDEX OF SERVICES M/M; 0.6% V 0.5%E; 3M/3M: 0.6% V 0.6%E
- Prior MoM revised lower from 0.6% to 0.4%
- Prior 3M/3M revised lower from 0.3% to 0.2%

Q3 PRELIMINARY TOTAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT Q/Q: -0.2% V +0.8%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 5.6%E
- No revisions



Basically the analyst's had moved their expectations for this data to be in line with last month's preliminary release at +0.8 and that is what this month's revised figure came out as. So basically no deviation at all to trade with. No news spike trade or afterspike news trade. The chart of the 5 second price action shows that there was about a 20 pip whipsaw, and initially moving a bit higher than pre-release. This may have been seen as positive by some traders as it confirms the high preliminary GDP from last month, it was not just some blip in the data. The USD had been gain thru the european session and moving all the major cross in USD positive direction, especially the EURUSD which was down over 100 pips, so this sentiment was weighing on the quid. Some of the other UK data was down such at Total Business Investment and Private Consumption and the rest flat. On the 5 minute chart that is included we can see a technical setup which occurred during the news. A fibonacci of the move down during the first hours after the London Open was drawn, about 5 minutes after the news GBPUSD hit the 50% retracement of this move, also testing the 200 SMA and the candle closed with a long upper wick - this is a good sell signal. Price moved down some 50 pips and broke the former lows for the session.

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