Friday, November 05, 2010

Canadian Employment - just missed deviation and mixed



Canadian Employment data just hit the wires about 10 minutes ago. This report consists of 2 numbers: the Employment Change number and the Unemployment Rate. A higher Employment change number is good for the Canadian Dollar or loonie and will tend to send the USDCAD down, while a higher Unemployment Rate is bad and will send the USDCAD up. This time the Employment Change number was lower with a -12 dev and so was the Unemployment rate at -0.1, so in this case the data conflicted, with the change figure bad for the loonie and bullish for USDCAD and the rate number good for the CAD and bearish for USDCAD. Initially the price of USDCAD did move higher, following the lower employment change, but it didn't continue or even maintain the new high achieved. Price came right back down quite quickly and then whipsawed around. Also the breakdown of part-time versus full-time jobs is now being reported. Here are the numbers:

*(CA) CANADA OCT NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: 3.0K V 15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.9% V 8.0%E
- No revisions

Breakdown of Jobs report:
- Full-time jobs: 47K v 37.1K prior
- Part-time jobs: -44.2K v -43.7K prior



The USDCAD did move up heading into the report, but this was unlikely to have been a move induced by a rumor or leak of the number, rather just that in general the USD was retracing some of the losses it took in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement on wednesday. The EURUSD took the biggest hit as the market focused on widening peripheral bond spreads, which had been an issue all week, but now that the US elections and the FOMC with QE2 is out of the way, the market could focus on it.

Included are 2 charts, first chart is a 1 minute chart of the USDCAD, which shows some of the run-up of the pair into the report. The second chart is the December Canadian Dollar Futures Contract which goes by the name of 6C on Ninjatrader (I have found different platforms have different symbols). This chart shows the 1 second price action. Remember the 6C trades in the opposite direction to the USDCAD...ie stronger Canadian Dollar means up.

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