It is incredible that the past few releases of this number have seen some good moves despite having very small deviations. It seems the market is particularly data conscious at the moment, with big moves seen across the market on news with small or even no deviation. However I was aware of this on Natural Gas from last week's move. In this case the range of analyst's expect was reported on TradeTheNews as +65 to +70 bcf, however on the Secret News Weapon the average estimate was set at +64 bcf. I used tight triggers but the number hit the wires it was +67 bcf and thus only a +3.0 deviation, right in the middle of the reported range, and even below my triggers.
The Natural Gas Futures Contracts NG and QG moved right down on this slightly higher number nearly 100 tics. It looked like a missed opportunity until a very sharp and fast pullback to the 78% retracement of the spike occurred. Of course trading Natural Gas Futures can be very difficult, it can be very volatile, sometimes the spreads widen so u are not sure what the exact price you will get filled at. It does take some practice and it is best for the trader to practice on a demo account before trading this news live. So the pullback to 78% was lightening fast and was only there a split second, there was only a moment to jump in and frankly I was not prepared for it and chased it, price flashed back down and then whipsawed back up...it got a bit nerve-wracking as the trade went nearly -30 tics in the first few seconds. In this situation it can be difficult because setting a tight stop loss in such volatility nearly guarentees it to be hit, and if price went up anymore a quick exit would have been required and price could have jumped up very quickly and easily become a larger loss. Still the trader must be aware that these are volatile conditions and must let price resolve it itself without jumping the gun to quickly. Luckily price turned around quickly.
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