Thursday, November 04, 2010

Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Comes in Low


Even more forex news trading today - What a week!!!! The USD has been sold across the board against all pairs. The Canadian Dollar or loonie (nickname given due to the loonie bird seen on its $1 coins) is one pair which has lagged the gains seen by other pairs, this is likely cause by the fact that Canada does alot of trade with the USA and thus is affected by the US economy. The Bank of Canada did raise rates some months ago but then did not continue last time they met, which held down the appreciation of the Canadian Dollar. Today we have seen the USDCAD start to make progress towards reaching parity with the US Dollar, which the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc have already done recently. However a poor number on the Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index put an obstacle in the way of the pair progress towards that level. Coming with a deviation of -8.3, this is a significant deviation and is definately enough to trigger a news spike trade using the Auto-click software - Secret News Weapon. Here is the number:

*(CA) CANADA OCT IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX: 56.7 V 65.0E



The USDCAD did move some 30 pips up as the loonie depreciated, which isn't great considering the deviation, however in the context of the strong USD selling it was decent enough and most traders were able to pull a solid +20 pips out of this spike. They had to take profits quickly however as within 10 seconds the USDCAD had retraced some 20 pips from its highs. See the first chart which shows the 5 second price action during this news release. This was not a big problem unless high leverage was used and the broker slipped the fill price on the entry order...know thy broker!...because it only setup the USDCAD for an ideal afterspike, pulling back to the 78% fib of the spike move...this gave an ideal forex news afterspike trade which is easier for some because there is more time to give in and the move back up was more gradual with plenty of time to lock in profits along the way...see the 2nd chart for this...USDCAD turned around as it approached 1.0050, a key level mentioned in the room. Will USDCAD forget about this and join the rest of the pairs against the USD and achieve parity..Canadian Employment Change tomorrow will decide.

No comments: