Today January 24th 2012 the Retail Sales figures were released from Canada. Both the main Headline figure and the Core Less Autos figure came out with +0.1 deviations above the median estimate, however there were also revisions to last month's figure of -0.1. The USDCAD forex pair had been trending up into the news. The news hit and the pair wiggled a bit but then made a slightly higher high, coming up into the R1 Daily Pivot (based on London Midnight Close)...this is one of those instances where you can actually fade the move after news. This was because there was a move up before the news likely driven by expectations of a weak number, but also because there was a general pullback in risk-appetite thru the european mid-day and early new york session, which saw the US Dollar gain. When the numbers came out mostly flat and USDCAD moved into the technical resistance zone it was a good probability trade to fade the news move.
Here are the figures:
Canada Retail Sales MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.1% Range: -0.3% to +0.8%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +1.0% Revised: +0.9%
Canada Retail Sales Less Autos MoM
Estimates- Median: +0.2% Average: +0.2% Range: -0.1% to +1.0%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: +0.7% Revised: +0.6%
Here is the first chart which shows the 30 second chart of the USDCAD, showing the little wiggle and then slightly new higher high into the 1.0140 zone of resistance.
Next is the 5 minute chart which shows the fade trade called live in the room a few minutes after the news was released and R1 was hit:
No comments:
Post a Comment