Australian Retail Sales

I have not been so impressed with this news indicator, however the past 2 months have seen it turn around. Possibly now that there is less fear in the markets, traders are again looking at the data. Back in August a -1.4 deviation from the expected number (0.5 exp -1.4 actual) caused a quick blip down and retraced well past the pre-release price: Click here for chart

However then in September a -1.5 deviation gave a nice spike, small retrace and a continued move down, very nice trading. View Chart

Then last month a tiny +0.4 deviation gave a nice spike, then went flat, but again then continued. Of course we cannot forget the prevaling trend and sentiment in the AUD during that period. See chart


So I decide to follow with a 0.4 deviation from the expected number of 0.5, so 0.9 or great I would buy, and 0.1 of less I would sell. This month we also had the quarterly numbers which should not conflict with the month on month number. There was a conflict , the m/m was -0.7 and the q/q was +0.1, however the q/q numbers were slightly delayed, so the market had a good reaction down on the m/m number. But it was a fast initial spike down and I could not get out at the bottom before it started to bounce, so I missed about 15 more pips, but still I got 40 pips so I was happpy