UK GDP Final Q3 2011 - Surprise +0.6 when all analysts expect +0.5

This Thrusday morning December 22nd 2011 at 9:30 GMT and 4:30 EST the final reading for GDP was released from the United Kingdom.

A small surprise on the Final GDP reading for the 3rd quarter 2011 for the UK. Every analyst surveyed by bloomberg expected the figure to remain flat at 0.5%. So this was positive but it was not enough to lift sentiment in the Pound Dollar forex pair. It is looking like GDP could fall as we go into 2012. There was also some Current Account data released at the same time which was quite a bit lower, this being bad for the Sterling Dollar (GBPUSD) forex pair.

Here are the figures:


UK GDP q/q - Final
Estimates: Median +0.5%, Average 0.5%, Range +0.5% to +0.5%
Actual: +0.6% Prior: +0.5% no revision
UK GDP y/y - Final (
Estimates: +0.5%, Average: +0.5%, Range +0.5% to +0.7%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.5% no revision
UK Current Account
Estimates: Median -6.1B, Average -5.5B, Range -8.4B to -1.0B
Actual: -15.25B Prior: -2.0B Revised: -7.4B
UK Total Business Investment q/q
Estimates: Median -1.4%, Average -1.2%, Range -1.4% to -0.5%
Actual: +0.3% Prior: -1.4% no revision
UK Total Business Investment y/y
Estimates: Median +0.3%, Average +0.5%, Range +0.3% to +1.1%
Actual: +4.3% Prior: +0.3% No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the GBPUSD forex pair. There was a tiny 3 pip blip up and it sold off on the bad current account number:

Here is a 1 minute chart of the GBPUSD forex pair, which shows the action leading into the news and how after the intial sell off it did then rally back near the former highs for the european session around 1.5720: