Thursday, December 15, 2011

UK Retail Sales - Lower but last months higher figures revised even higher

This morning at 9:30am london time (4:30am EST) the UK Retail Sales figures for November were released. Here the figures:
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.4% Average -0.3% Range -1.0% to +0.8%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +0.9%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.3% Average +0.3% Range -0.4% to +1.4%
Actual: +0.5% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.3% Average -0.3% Range -0.9% to +0.5%
Actual: -0.4% Prior: +0.6% Revised: +1.0%

UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel(YoY)
Estimates: Median +0.4% Average +1.2% Range -0.3% to +1.2%
Actual: +0.7% Prior: +0.9% Revised: +1.1%

Although lower than expected this month, last month's numbers were higher than expected and this
month they were revised even higher. Retail Sales is usually quite a volitile indicator, 1 month up 1 month down. Here is the 10 second chart of the Price action...leading into the news the GBPUSD rallied from its Daily Central Pivot at 1.5470 and hit the big Century round figure of 1.5500 just before the news and had already bounced 15-20 pip before the data was released.

This is a 1 minute chart which shows all the bars from the 8am European Cash Equity open thru the 9:30 release, and the following hour or 2 after:

So far this week all the markets have been selling off and the US Dollar has strenghtened on this Risk aversion. Cable has held up better than other pairs as it has aquired a bit of a safe-haven status because the pound is outside europe and can print money and adjust interest rates, something Italy and Spain cannot do because they use the Euro. Volumes have been light due to Christmas holidays approaching so moves have exaccerbated. Yesterday rumors of a French downgrade from triple A rating was circulating which did not happen but it could, it was enough to keep things selling off. Rumors have been rampant as Marketmakers take advantage of thin liquidity to get traders on the wrong side. Tuesday had rumors of Iran blocking the straits of hormus which was totally false. Tuesday had merkel cap the size of the ESM and this reversed the oil lead rally and commence the sell-off, then the FOMC made comments that economic uncertainty persists which continued the move down...A small correction in europe on wednesday and then USA open and again continued to sell. So far today in europe up and down.

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