Swedish Retail Sales - Much better print lead to steep decline in EURSEK forex pair

This morning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 EST) the Retail Sales figures were released from Sweden. They cam in alot higher than expecting and surprised the market. This lead to a very nice appreciation in the Swedish Krona forex pair. Due to the fact that none of the popular forex news sites seem to have data from the Norway and Swedish Krona pairs, despite the fact that there is very good reactions to news announcements from these countries, we find it necessary to record these moves whenever we can. Although we admit, sometimes we are so busy we cannot always keep up with the blog. There is just so much news, and our technical trading systems churn out their own pips and keep us plenty occupied. Anyway enough ranting. As for the environment, a pretty general trading day, more talk about China, apparently a rumor of a RRR giving a bit of positive risk sentiment to the market lifting the majors although they did dip overnight, especially the AUDUSD, the pair most vulnerable to the China slowdown theme.

Here is the Swedish Data:

Sweden Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
Estimates- Median: +0.1% Average: +0.1% Low: -0.2% High: +0.4%
Actual: +1.2% Prior: +0.1% Revised: +0.2%

Sweden Retail Sales n.s.a. (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +1.6% Average: +1.9% Low: +1.2% High: +3.0%
Actual: +3.4% Prior: +1.5% Revised: +1.6%

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURSEK forex pair:

Swedish Interest Rates - Riksbank cuts 25 bps as expected

This morning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 EST) the Swedish Riksbank released their Interest Rate decision. This came along with CPI Inflation figures. Out of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the announcement, 5 expected the Riksbank to hold rates steady at 1.75% while the other 13 expect the bank to cut. They did as the majority expected and CPI also came out lower which means the Riksbank still has room to cut more...The CPI came out first and there was a small delay of 5 or 10 seconds before the Rate Announcement then came thru the wires.

Here is the Data:

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate
Estimates- Median: 1.5% Average: 1.57% Range: 1.50% to 1.75%
Actual: 1.50% Prior: 1.75% no revision
5 out of 18 for hold, 13 for cut

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.5% Range: -0.7% to -0.4%
Actual: -0.9% Prior: +0.2% no revision

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +2.3% Average: +2.2% Range: +2.1% to +2.4%
Actual: +1.9% Prior: +2.3% no revision

Sweden SW CPI - CPIF (MoM)
Estimates- Median: -0.5% Average: -0.5% Range: -0.6% to -0.3%
Actual: -0.7% Prior: 0.0% no revision

Sweden SW CPI - CPIF (YoY)
Estimates- Median: +1.1% Average: +1.0% Range: +0.4% to +1.3%
Actual: +0.9% Prior: +0.5% no revision

Sweden CPI Level
Estimates- Median: 312.97 Average: 313.05 Range: 312.75 to 313.50
Actual: 311.85 Prior: 314.75 no revision

Here is a 5 second chart of the EURSEK:

Here is the 30 second EURSEK chart which shows the move continued:

Swedish Industrial Production - lower print causes EURSEK to rally

Not much history on this figure to trade so will catalogue price action response here so there is a reference point for the future. About a 200 pip move which is not so much for the EURSEK pair, but not bad.

Here are the figures:

Swedish Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
Estimates: Median -0.8% Average -0.7% Range -1.6% to +0.2%
Actual: -1.9% Prior: +0.4% Revised: +0.3%
Swedish Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY)
Estimates: Median +2.5% Average +2.8% Range +1.8% to +4.1%
Actual: +0.2% PRior: +4.7% Revised: +4.5%
Swedish Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM)
Actual: -4.8% Prior: -1.8% Revised: -2.3%
Swedish Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
Actual: -8.4% Prior: -5.0% Revised: -5.2%
Budget Balance
Actual: -90.8B Prior: +5.5B No Revision

Here is the 10 second chart of the EURSEK:

and a 1 minute chart of the same pair for more perspective:

Swedish Interest Rates - Cut 25 bps as expected and SEK strengthens?

This morning at 8:30am GMT or 3:30am EST the Swedish Riksbank announced their interest rate changes.

Out of 24 analysts surveyed by bloomberg, 9 expected the Riksbank to hold steady at 2.00%,
11 expected a 25 basis point (bps) cut to 1.75%, and 2 expected a full 50 bps cut to 1.5%.

Quite similar to the expectations for the NorgeBank last week where only a few expected a
50 bps cut and that is what they did, instead the Riksbank today only cut 25 bps as the
majority of anaylsts expected and was the median & average estimate based on all 24 surveyed.

The EURSEK rallied into the release, indicating Swedish Krona (SEK) weakness, as would be
expected by a lowering of interest rates, but this was basically a buy the rumor sell the news
case for the EURSEK pair (or sell the rumor buy the news for the Swedish Krona as a whole).
As soon as the news was released and it was only a 25 bps as expected the EURSEK turned around
and dropped in SEK strength (it is the 2nd currency of the pair). So the SEK weakness, and
EURSEK rally before the news was on the possibility of a 50 bps cut, which when it did not
materialise promptly unwound.

Here is the chart:

Swedish GDP and Retail Sales

This Monday Nov. 29th 2010 and 8:30am GMT (3:30am EST) some big news hit the wires from Sweden. Although there was two pieces of news at the same time the deviation was huge, so if a spike trade was not possible, then an opportunity for an afterspike was available. As the Euro was selling off anyhow, this news especially caused the EURSEK to sell-off thru-out the rest of the day. Here is the data:


SWEDEN OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.8% V 0.4%E;
Y/Y: 5.1% V 4.3%E
- Prior MoM revised lower from 0.8% to 0.7%
- Prior YoY revised lower from 5.5% to 5.2%

SWEDEN Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.1% V 1.2%E;
Y/Y: 6.9% V 5.4%E
- Prior QoQ revised higher 4.5%r from 1.9% to 2.0%

- Prior YoY revised lower from 4.6% to %