Wednesday, December 01, 2010

DOE Crude Inventories - Modest Deviation causes some volatility

Another release of the DOE Petroleum Inventory this Wednesday Dec. 1st 2010 at 3:30pm GMT (10:30am EST). Last night's API Inventories did not have much of a deviation and the Crude Future did not move much. Here were the figures last night and set the context for the more important DOE figures this Wednesday afternoon:

API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -1.14M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +1.07M V 0KE; DISTILLATE: +225K V -1ME; UTILIZATION: 81.9% V 85.8%E - Cushing crude inventory: +600KK to 33.9M barrels

Here are the figures for the DOE Inventory figures, which did have a bit more of a deviation, at least for Crude which is the main number to base at trade in the most liquid energy market, the Crude Oil Future Contract:

DOE CRUDE: +1.06M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +560K V 0ME (FLAT); DISTILLATE: -195K V -1ME; UTILIZATION: 82.6% V 85.8%E- Distillate demand -135K bpd to 3.67M bpd - Gasoline demand +40K bpd at 8.87M bpd

So Crude Oil came out with a build of about 2,216k which is significant but usually a bit below what would normally trigger a news spike trade entry. The deviations on Distillates were only +906k and Gasoline only +261k, which were small but did deviate in the same direction as the Build in Crude. A Build is bad for prices and the Crude Oil Future did drop, however in an environment of rising risk appetite after good Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment figures, especially after the sell-off which has occurred the past few weeks, Crude could not maintain this sell-off. There were some opportunities to scalp the volatility. An entry at the 78% fibonacci pullback of the initial news spike caused a move back to thee 38% of the same move for about 20 ticks. Also when price took out the swing high which was the pre-release price, there was another opportunity to scalp it back to the 50%, however when pre-release price is hit it is considered evidence that the news is not enough to move the broader news sentiment flow of the market and trader should start to look at getting on the other side of the market

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