US Durable Good ex Transport - 28th March 2007 - Follow thru

This was a risky report to trade as it can spike and then whipsaw the other way so I was please to pull alittle profit out of it. However the new Currenex platform I was using slipped me a full 35 pips from the pre-release price and the price where the mystery broker and and spreadbetting platform got me in. I did however hang in and eventual exited out of the position on Currenex with about 5 pips. Quite a turn around from the fill early in the day on UK GDP. It could have something to do with the banks which feed the Currenex provider.

Durable goods measures the value of orders for a basket of products, this indicator strips out the transport segment, which can be very volatile and distort the underlying picture of the economy it provides. Click here to read about this economic indicator. The number was expected at 1.8% and I was looking for a deviation of +2.2 to sell cable, and -1.8 to buy cable....a negative reading was bad for the dollar and the GBPUSD goes up. I also was looking to trade a larger position if the deviation was an addition 0.3% more than the mentioned triggers.

I exited my whole postion on the mystery broker very early, actually only 11 seconds after I entered. As you can see there was a retrace after the inital spike and then the price moved further. I held the spreadbet trade for about a minute and got out at a better price. As mentioned my trade on the Currenex platform was filled @ 1.9675, and was instantly a -25 pip loss, I didn't even see the initial spike go to that prices, so liquidity must have been thin and my market order didn't find any until there. I sat nervously as it gradually went up and down as markets do, it scrapped the 70s and then pulled back to 55s and I wondered why I didn't get out. I was lucky, eventually it continued back up, I have seen Durable good spike in one direction and then whipsaw and spike in the other direction in the next second. Perhaps there are some limits I can use to avoid this happening but for now I will stick to other platforms. Here's the chart of the price action during the trade.

UK GDP - 28th March 2007 - Continuation

Another news indicator with enough deviation from expectation to trade. After Tuesday's no trade on US Consumer Confidence this was a great gift, also my mystery broker is filling me. Also my first time using Currenex for a news trade, there is the danger of trading to many accounts at once, especially if something happens like a revision or other news reports coming out at the same time. For this reason I have been trading with a smaller position usually just 1 or 2 lots, this has meant that my gains have been less than last week when I was trading up to 6 lots per trade. It is the balance between more precise news trading and doing broker research, which I think will pay dividends later on.

When the trade hit the initial spike and retraced some, because I was in with positions on 3 brokers, I closed some of my trades early, so I could focus on the remaining ones. I bit like scaling out of a trade, where you sell half and leave the rest on to run for more pips. The move did turn around and continue so I didn't achieve maximum potential on every broker. I closed the IGIndex first because it seems the slowest to execute, then got out of Currenex where I was trading GBPJPY, after doing this the price turned around and moved south. I did catch this further move on the mystery broker trading GBPUSD and faded out of the trade.

The UK GDP for 2006 Q4 was expected 0.8%, but came out at 0.7% , a 0.1% deviation was enough to move the market. It wasn't a huge move, about 35 pips, but I will take it. Click here to read more about this report

Here is the GBPUSD chart with the mystery broker and the IGIndex trade.

and here is the GBPJPY chart with my Currenex fill, currenex prices in the currency that is bought or sold, it is real thing.

US New Home Sales - 26th March 07 - New week more good news trades

A good start to the week, and a continuation of last weeks winning streak, this now makes 5 successful tradable news indicators in a row. Often you will get a report which doesn't deviate from the expected number enough to produce a good tradable move, so this is all very good. Unfortunately I did have a bit of broker trouble. As on friday my mystery broker didn't fill me on the US Existing Homes report, actually my broker gets liquidity from Forex Liquidity, who provide a few brokers and the word is that they tag accounts when you do too well. I have been anticipated this and have been doing a bit of research on the side and have been placing trades on a few brokers at once. I have found I am getting decent fills from a UK based spreadbetting firm, which means my profits are tax-free. I also have setup a new account with Currenex, which is about as close to the top of the food chain that you can get as a retail forex trader. Unfortunately the Currenex platform is a bit complex and I didn't have my orders set right so didn't get in on the trade. I got a bit of pre-news jitters and decided not to trade with good old trusty Oanda as well as I thought in the heat of the moment it might be difficult to control multiple trading platforms. At least I got filled at the spreadbetting broker, only a measly £3 per pip, so I only actually got about one-tenth of what I normally would have if using my usual lot sizes with a regular Spot FX broker.

Anyhow the New Homes report has become more important recently with the US housing market in trouble and the shakeup in the sub-prime mortgage sector. New Homes is a better gauge than Friday's Existing Homes report for measuring this, because if they are being built it also means people are being employed, materials are being used, etc. The number was expected at around 985-990k and the number came out at 848k, a full 137k below the expected number. This was very bearish for the dollar and the GBPUSD instantly appreciated from about 1.9665 to 1.9690, after stalling for awhile there it then broke out to 1.9700, retraced back down to 1.9690 and finally then peaked at 1.9720 before coming down again. Sometimes it is difficult to find the patience to hold long enough to hit the peak, having tried before and seen profit vanish, I took my profits at 1.9690, see the chart below . Click Here is a link to the report.