Thursday, March 29, 2007

US Durable Good ex Transport - 28th March 2007 - Follow thru

This was a risky report to trade as it can spike and then whipsaw the other way so I was please to pull alittle profit out of it. However the new Currenex platform I was using slipped me a full 35 pips from the pre-release price and the price where the mystery broker and and spreadbetting platform got me in. I did however hang in and eventual exited out of the position on Currenex with about 5 pips. Quite a turn around from the fill early in the day on UK GDP. It could have something to do with the banks which feed the Currenex provider.

Durable goods measures the value of orders for a basket of products, this indicator strips out the transport segment, which can be very volatile and distort the underlying picture of the economy it provides. Click here to read about this economic indicator. The number was expected at 1.8% and I was looking for a deviation of +2.2 to sell cable, and -1.8 to buy cable....a negative reading was bad for the dollar and the GBPUSD goes up. I also was looking to trade a larger position if the deviation was an addition 0.3% more than the mentioned triggers.

I exited my whole postion on the mystery broker very early, actually only 11 seconds after I entered. As you can see there was a retrace after the inital spike and then the price moved further. I held the spreadbet trade for about a minute and got out at a better price. As mentioned my trade on the Currenex platform was filled @ 1.9675, and was instantly a -25 pip loss, I didn't even see the initial spike go to that prices, so liquidity must have been thin and my market order didn't find any until there. I sat nervously as it gradually went up and down as markets do, it scrapped the 70s and then pulled back to 55s and I wondered why I didn't get out. I was lucky, eventually it continued back up, I have seen Durable good spike in one direction and then whipsaw and spike in the other direction in the next second. Perhaps there are some limits I can use to avoid this happening but for now I will stick to other platforms. Here's the chart of the price action during the trade.


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