Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index - Higher Print leads to reversal

This afternoon of Monday February 6th 2012 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT) the PMI figure was released from Canada. This figure has not been affecting the price of the Canadian Dollar very much unless there is a very large deviation. However if one is trading longer term it can support the general direction of the trend.

Today saw a decently higher print on this, not enough to trigger a trade. Often Canadian data gets leaked but regardless if it was a rumor or just good analysis the USDCAD sold off into the news. Of course a lower USDCAD means Canadian Dollar strength. When the news was released there was a small blip, but then a reversal of about 20 pips over then next 45 minutes before the down trend re-established itself. Here is the data:

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Estimates- Median: 59.7 Average: 58.9 Range: 54.0 to 62.0
Actual: 64.1 Prior: 63.5 No Revision

I include 2 charts, the USDCAD and the CADJPY, both 1 minute charts. These 2 pairs traded inverted to one another. When CADJPY hits resistance at the same time as USDCAD hitting support, there is a good probability of them bouncing some.

UK Manufacturing PMI - Higher than expected but little reaction

This morning of Wednesday 1st February 2011 at 9:30 GMT (4:30 EST) the PMI Manufacturing Numbers were released for the UK. This economic indicator was causing a nice price reaction in the British Pound last year, but in the Autumn the moves started to occur based on a rumor or leak before the news. Then when the data came out the GBPUSD forex pair would actually reverse against the direction of the deviation. So we have been widening out our deviations for this one and also paying close attention to any moves occurring before the news and any rumors. Today's number came out higher and puts the UK back above the critical 50 mark. In the past this deviation would have been enough for us to trade but we have widened it out so we let this one go. Amazingly there was little reaction to this at all, it does seem as though this one has lost focus for now.

Here is the data:

UK PMI Manufacturing
Estimates- Median: 50.0 Average: 49.9 Range: 47.6 to 52.5
Actual: 52.1 Prior: 49.6 Revised: 49.7

First is the 10 second chart of the GBPUSD forex pair which shows how little reaction there was:

Also a 1 minute chart which shows how the GBPUSD forex pair had run up to its highs for the session leading into the release, however this was seen for the other major pairs as well so was not really an indication of a rumor. However despite the good print the GBPUSD did reverse down 35-40 pips after the news as has been the pattern the past 4 months or so: